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bigus
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:40 am

berto wrote:So far, I've conducted limited tests of Bragg's 1862 Kentucky Campaign. I've begun tests of the Gettysburg Campaign. If I can find the time time, I will test Lyon's 1861 Missouri campaign also.

Aside from Sherman's March to the Sea, and subsequent march northward through the Carolinas, can players cite other historical exceptionally fast infantry marches?

Off the top of my head, I can think of several more:

--Hood's 1864 Franklin Campaign.
--Early's 1864 Shenandoah Valley Campaign.
--Jackson's 1862 Valley Campaign.

Speculation and debate are great, but prove nothing. Actual testing is needed.



How bout the Red River Campaign..............From Battles And Leaders Of The Civil War Vol 4.

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berto
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:58 am

Franciscus wrote:Maybe one solution to your "historical realism" quest is to just play with activation rule turned off...

Can I turn off weather, too? (Maybe I can!)

What I left out of my Gettysburg report is that, whenever it wasn't fair weather all the way, I aborted the test. Only about 1 in 4 tests presented just the "right" weather conditions. (I also aborted my 1862 Kentucky tests if mud occurred.)

In other words, I'm looking to recreate the historical results under the best possible conditions, but it seems I can't.

If I/we can't recreate so many Real Game events even after repeated retries and under the most favorable conditions, does that not suggest that something is flawed somewhere?

My first test of plausibility is: Can it reasonably recreate history? I'm not saying I want to recreate history, but if the game does not give plausible results, for me, the game becomes largely a fantasy and much of the fun goes out of it.
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runyan99
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:09 am

bigus wrote:How bout the Red River Campaign..............From Battles And Leaders Of The Civil War Vol 4.


Works out to about 25 miles a day for the cavalry division and something like 13 for the infantry divisions.

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Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:33 am

berto wrote:Aren't you implying therefore that we can forget about emulating historical invasions like the Gettysburg Campaign, the 1862 Maryland Campaign, Bragg's 1862 Kentucky Campaign, etc., because any step along the way one or more of the subordinate commands might become inactive?

Are we to suppose that AACW is the true historical standard, that the Real Game was just, one after another, a series of improbable outliers?


Are the activation rules sorta iffy, sure. Usually u started a campaign and "was" activated for that periode and not the "willy-nilly" on and off as it now. Tho there is a +1 if activated last turn to try help get that in the engine. Thats another discussion tho.

U in another post try find the extrem examples of long marches. If looking at what was the extrem in history, u gota equally have those extrem happen in game too else it makes no point.

U can in 5 mins find examples of the other extrem where attrition is much higher and march speed is lot slower than what is possible in game. From where u could argue that the engine is way to fast and attrition way to low.
Depence on what u look at as examples.

No engine will ever recreate history, u gota to some extend get some sorta median.
If u choose to compare the more exceptional cases u gota give the engine the benefit of having exceptional rolls.
Did u in any of ur tests use forced marches?

Could Little mac have marched into Richmond during the peninsual campaign if he had "rolled 1s on all his activation rolls".

If it has started raining 3 days into Lee's march through the valley in the '63 invasion would the campaign have been altered?

What I left out of my Gettysburg report is that, whenever it wasn't fair weather all the way, I aborted the test. Only about 1 in 4 tests presented just the "right" weather conditions. (I also aborted my 1862 Kentucky tests if mud occurred.)


i've before critized the weather matrix. By doing purely from turn to turn % rolls u can get weather that is willy nilly too.
Again another discussion. I think its fitting that in order to get the best possible test did it until u got the "right" weather.

In other words, I'm looking to recreate the historical results under the best possible conditions, but it seems I can't.


Results: Lee and Longstreet are able to reach Culpeper in 32 days, with little or no cohesion loss, and zero attrition. In line with historical performance, so far, so good.


Seems u could?
U even got 0 attrition. Thats not in line with history so not very historical, but in opposite direction.
Did u use forced marches?
i think u could easily argue that the faster marches are exactly represented by forced marches, so u might even have done it faster than historical.

But A.P. Hill is taking 47 days to reach Culpeper. His cohesion is down by almost half. Ewell, beginning at Cumberland, PA, eight days east of Lee & co.'s starting region at Franklin, PA, is taking 55 days to reach Culpeper. His forces are also nearing 50% cohesion.


Was under favorble weather conditions, but wasnt favorble activation wise. Was it favorble forced march wise?
50% cohesion sounds about right to me. I dont think the army returning from Gettysburg wasnt in particular splendit condition. It certainly used a bit of rest and refit.

If I/we can't recreate so many Real Game events even after repeated retries and under the most favorable conditions, does that not suggest that something is flawed somewhere?


Could very well be. Im not saying things arent in need of change, but u never mention if u use forced marches removing 1 of the factors that could help explain the historical longer marches. If and underling IF u never use forced marches the in engine factor to recreate historical fast marches i dont think its final profe.
2nd in the case of Gettysburg it seems to me are u able to recreate it, if the favorable conditions occur and not using forced marches.


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Wed Mar 05, 2008 7:54 am

Walloc wrote:50% cohesion sounds about right to me. I dont think the army returning from Gettysburg wasnt in particular splendit condition. It certainly used a bit of rest and refit.

Because the Gettysburg scenario doesn't present us with situation around the first of June, with Lee's army in the vicinity of Culpeper, VA (and because I'm not capable of/willing to alter the setup files to recreate that exact situation), I can't recreate Lee's march north to Gettysburg. But I can fake it by attempting a retreat march in the opposite direction.

In other words: In the Real Game, also in the scenario, Lee's forces begin in tip-top shape. The distance from Culpeper to Gettysburg is the same as the distance in from Gettysburg to Culpeper. By marching southward from Gettysburg back to Lee's historical starting point, that is my best simulation for the historical march northward.

The point of comparison should not be the condition of the historical ANV after its defeat at Gettysburg, rather, the army's condition at the beginning of the Gettysburg battle. The ANV at substantially 50-60% cohesion going into Gettysburg? Doesn't seem right. I am not under the impression that the ANV was in any less than fine shape to fight Gettysburg.

I didn't try forced marches, because I assume that the 50-60% cohesion would be substantially lower. Yes, maybe with both fair weather all the way and perfect leader activation the ANV could march to Gettysburg in a month or so, but under current game rules and settings, nearly 50% cohesion after a month of marching doesn't seem right. Much less so if forced marches reduce cohesion even further.

Could very well be. Im not saying things arent in need of change, but u never mention if u use forced marches removing 1 of the factors that could help explain the historical longer marches. If and underling IF u never use forced marches the in engine factor to recreate historical fast marches i dont think its final profe.
2nd in the case of Gettysburg it seems to me are u able to recreate it, if the favorable conditions occur and not using forced marches.

It seems to me that we have a situation here where

(a) In some cases, you can achieve historical rates of fast march but with extreme, unhistorical cohesion and attrition loss. (But not all cases. Witness Bragg's 2-1/2 month retreat march from Perryville to Knoxville to Chattanooga to Murfreesboro--you can't recreate that under any circumstances. Nor do I suspect that you can recreate under any circumstances Sherman's "fast" march northward through the Carolinas.)

(b) In other cases, you can achieve historical cohesion and attrition rates but with forces moving much slower than historical.

Looking at the several historical examples cited, it seems that you can't have (a) and (b) both--i.e., sustained rapid marches with minimal (or at least acceptable) cohesion and attrition loss--even under the best of conditions.

Yes, introducing forced marches ups the movement rate, but it ups the cohesion and attrition loss, too.

Look at the whole picture. It's contorted out of historical shape.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:21 am

berto wrote:
The point of comparison should not be the condition of the historical ANV after its defeat at Gettysburg, rather, the army's condition at the beginning of the Gettysburg battle. The ANV at substantially 50-60% cohesion going into Gettysburg? Doesn't seem right. I am not under the impression that the ANV was in any less than fine shape to fight Gettysburg.


Well, I suppose that the fact that the army was strung out and took three days to reunite on the battlefield does represent some loss of cohesion. Still, 50% is too much. Cutting that in half would be closer to a reasonable figure.

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Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:36 am

runyan99 wrote:Well, I suppose that the fact that the army was strung out and took three days to reunite on the battlefield does represent some loss of cohesion. Still, 50% is too much. Cutting that in half would be closer to a reasonable figure.

That's what I am after: reasonable tweaks.

It could be that by using forced marches more, overall can we can reasonably achieve historical fast rates of march--but at the cost of unreasonably and ahistorically high cohesion and attrition loss.

Okay, then reduce cohesion loss rates across the board (as you seem to suggest).

Maybe also tweak the effects of attrition, mud, leader inactivation, pontooning, etc., etc.

This is fertile ground for modders.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:48 am

berto wrote:That's what I am after: reasonable tweaks.

It could be that by using forced marches more, overall can we can reasonably achieve historical fast rates of march--but at the cost of unreasonably and ahistorically high cohesion and attrition loss.

Okay, then reduce cohesion loss rates across the board (as you seem to suggest).

Maybe also tweak the effects of mud, leader inactivation, pontooning, etc., etc.

This is fertile ground for modders.


Well, it's a bit more crucial than just fodder for modders, because the new beta patch slows movement down to the lowest common denominator for each division and corps. An official tweak must be made.

I suggest doing this one step at a time. First, lower cohesion loss for infantry and artillery in good weather. Recheck speeds with the sort of tests you are doing.

Once cohesion loss for these arms is reasonable in good weather, tweak speed to match historical rates of march as best as possible. Without forced marches, this seems to be maybe 10 miles a day for artillery and maybe 20 for cavalry. That's ballpark and unscientific, but I think it is in the neighborhood.

On the topic of infantry and artillery. I'm sure there was a lot of accordion action, with infantry waiting for artillery to catch up, but generally the arms moved together at the same pace. As such, artillery movement is best estimated by the movement of divisions and corps as a whole. It is reasonable I think to assume that infantry could move somewhat faster with no artillery.

Also consider that veteran troops marched better and longer than green troops or militia. Cohesion loss drops as units get seasoned.

Then take a look at poor weather conditions. Maybe there is nothing wrong there. Cohesion loss should be high for mud and to a lesser degree for snow, and speeds slower, although frozen roads are easier to march on than muddy ones.

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Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:19 am

runyan99 wrote:(...) the new beta patch slows movement down to the lowest common denominator for each division and corps. (...)

Corps have always used the movement of the slowest unit, I think? I.e. it's only been changed for divisions, that they also use the same rule?
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runyan99 wrote:I suggest doing this one step at a time. First, lower cohesion loss for infantry and artillery in good weather. Recheck speeds with the sort of tests you are doing.

Once cohesion loss for these arms is reasonable in good weather, tweak speed to match historical rates of march as best as possible. Without forced marches, this seems to be maybe 10 miles a day for artillery and maybe 20 for cavalry. That's ballpark and unscientific, but I think it is in the neighborhood.


I would reverse the order you've got here. Speeding movement will reduce cohesion loss. If you reduce cohesion loss to where you want it, then apply something else that will also reduce cohesion loss ... unintended consequences.

The risk to reversing the order is getting the same kind of multiplication effect for speed. I just think that would be easier to readjust back to desired levels.
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Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:39 pm

Here are some notes and observations on march rates and terrain types/conditions on the original database vs modded rates.

First things first, a region typically represents 20 to 30 miles

The original database provides the following results:

In clear terrain, Infantry takes 5 days to cover a single region in clear/good ground. This represents a march rate of 4 to 6 miles a day. Infantry in mud, snow, or frozen conditions takes 9 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 2 to 3 miles a day.

In clear terrain, cavalry takes 4 days to cover a single region in clear/good ground. Which represents a march rate of 5 to 8 miles a day. Cavalry in mud, snow, or frozen conditions takes 7 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 3 to 4.5 miles a day.

In the modded database, march times are reduced:

In clear terrain, Infantry takes 4 days to cover a single region in clear/good ground. Which represents a march rate of 5 to 8.5 miles a day. Infantry in mud conditions takes 6 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 3.5 to 5 miles a day. Infantry in snow conditions takes 7 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 3 to 4.5 miles per day. Infantry in frozen conditions takes 8 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 2.5 to 4 miles per day.

Bear in mind that march rates have an impact on attrition due to reduced cohesion as well as distance covered. This is one rational behind the different march rates for snow and frozen conditions. I am assuming frozen ground conditions represents colder and harsher weather than snow weather. Thus a greater possibility of attrition.

In clear terrain, cavalry takes 3 days to cover a single region in clear/good ground. This represents a march rate of 6.5 to 10 miles a day. Cavalry in mud conditions takes 5 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 4 to 6 miles a day. Cavalry in snow conditions takes 7 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 3 to 4.5 miles a day. Cavalry in frozen conditions takes 9 days to cover a single region or a march rate of 2 to 3.5 miles a day.

Cavalry very rarely operated during winter time due to lack of forage. If anything, cold weather marching costs could be increased. However it is hard to rationalize because if cavalry carried substantial forage with the column, then attrition rates are not abnormal. Although a greater march cost with greater cohesion and attrition loss would discourage the use of cavalry during wintertime.

So to summarize, here are the infantry/cavalry costs to march into a region by days for the common terrain types of clear, woods and hills. Also the less common terrain type of swamp/marsh is included. The numbers in the charts are the number of days to march through a region. Again regions are typically 20-30 miles. So to get a march rate per day, divide the number of days into 20 to 30 miles. Also important to remember are the rest days. If an infantry unit requires 9 days to march into a region and then halts upon arrival, the unit will have 6 days to recover cohesion.


Clear Terrain
Infantry---Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------5-------9-----9------9---
Modded-----4-------6-----7------8---

Cavalry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------3-------7-----7------7---
Modded-----3-------5-----7------7---

Woods Terrain
Infantry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------6-------9-----9------9---
Modded-----5-------7-----7------8---

Cavalry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------7-------7-----8------9---
Modded-----4-------5-----8------9---

Hills Terrain
Infantry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------13-----20----15-----15---
Modded-----6------8-----10-----11---

Cavalry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------12-----20-----20----20---
Modded-----5------7------9-----10---

Swamp/Marsh Terrain
Infantry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------15-----20----15-----15---
Modded-----9------11----12-----11---

Cavalry
----------Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original-----20-----25-----20----15---
Modded-----8------10-----12----11---


Note that none of the movement costs are greater than 15 days. Even in high cost regions with bad weather, a player can usually move a minimum of 1 region per turn with rest days available. Rest days allow troops to regain cohesion. The more rest days, the less troops suffer cohesion loss and attrition. Blizzards and extreme terrain/weather are exceptions in which movement typically takes a full 15 days. Which means there are no rest days available available to regain cohesion and thus attrition loss can be high. In particular if you continue marching over multiple turns.

When I modded the database, I kept in mind several basic guidelines. One is I wanted to ensure summer was the best campaign timeframe followed by spring and fall. Winter had to be the worse campaign season. Second I wanted reasonable march rates considering a 20-30 mile region. Finally, I wanted harsh weather to have slightly greater impact on marching to reflect greater attrition during extreme cold weather.

After substantial playtesting with the mod, I am satisfied with the modded infantry march rates. I will probably add one day to the cavalry march rates in mud. And probably add 2 days to the march rate of cavalry in snow and frozen conditions-partially to reflect the rarity of cavalry operating during cold weather.

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Interesting. Nice work. Data instead of opinions and theory. I like it!!!

Before anyone panics, we should remind everyone that these rates are further modified by river crossings, CP [out of command], leader activation, leader attributes, no wheeled units attached [supply, support, Army HQ]etc....

So the rates reflect 'Active leader, 100% in command, no leader/unit attributes affecting movement, no river crossings, no combined arms or support units'

You show $medfoot and $medhorse. Are you going to adjust all the other movement types also?
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:23 am

I believe Jagger has reworked the numbers for all units...............

Here are the numbers for Mountain terrain from the original DB......
[ATTACH]2138[/ATTACH]

And then his modded terrain values..............
[ATTACH]2139[/ATTACH]


I think Jaggers' numbers are good. I've tested the Trans-Mississippi and Kentucky scenarios but I'm not good at AA reports so maybe Berto can report on Trans-Mississippi or Kentucky again with the modded terrain files...
(Sorry to put you on the spot Berto..... :nuts: )

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 2:12 am

lodilefty wrote:Interesting. Nice work. Data instead of opinions and theory. I like it!!!

Before anyone panics, we should remind everyone that these rates are further modified by river crossings, CP [out of command], leader activation, leader attributes, no wheeled units attached [supply, support, Army HQ]etc....

So the rates reflect 'Active leader, 100% in command, no leader/unit attributes affecting movement, no river crossings, no combined arms or support units'

You show $medfoot and $medhorse. Are you going to adjust all the other movement types also?


Earlier in the thread, I posted an attachment with modded terrain files. The attachment has all the modded terrain files for clear, mud, snow, frozen and blizzard conditions.

I do feel that cavalry is too fast in bad conditions such as mud/snow/frozen conditions. Again I will probably increase cavalry costs by 1 in mud and 2 in snow/frozen for most of the terrain types. I doubt if I will be able to make the changes till this weekend though.

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bigus wrote:...so maybe Berto can report on Trans-Mississippi or Kentucky again with the modded terrain files...
(Sorry to put you on the spot Berto..... :nuts: )

I'll give it a spin tomorrow or the day after for sure.

(BTW, I assume we hand edit some file, or is there a link somewhere to the appropriately modded file(s)? I think I'm missing something. :confused: )
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 2:42 am

berto wrote:I'll give it a spin tomorrow or the day after for sure.

(BTW, I assume we hand edit some file, or is there a link somewhere to the appropriately modded file(s)? I think I'm missing something. :confused: )


Great to hear. I think you'll like it.
Check out page 3 of this thread for the files and info on how to apply the Mod (Post #66).

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Jagger wrote:Earlier in the thread, I posted an attachment with modded terrain files. The attachment has all the modded terrain files for clear, mud, snow, frozen and blizzard conditions.
<snip>
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 10:38 am

Seems a good analysis Jagger. I'll see with PhilThib and if he feels too that there is no problems, this can go official I believe. I'll wait for Michael's return though, so not before 3 weeks.
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 6:52 pm

Jagger wrote:
Clear Terrain
Infantry---Clear---Mud---Snow---Frozen
Original------5-------9-----9------9---
Modded-----4-------6-----7------8---


I'd still like an explanation of why movement is faster in mud than in frozen conditions. Frozen roads are solid and easy to march on. Furthermore, the idea that movement is faster in snow than in frozen (but presumably non-snow) conditions does not make sense to me.

Also, crucially missing in these mod values is data for artillery/wheeled units.

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:21 pm

What was most needed to move troops were hard and clear roads. So from fastest to slowest the ground condition should be clear->frozen->snow->mud->blizzard.

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 7:33 pm

runyan99 wrote:What was most needed to move troops were hard and clear roads. So from fastest to slowest the ground condition should be clear->frozen->snow->mud->blizzard.


Agreed
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:26 pm

Gray_Lensman wrote:Agreed. Frozen is by definition harder ground. Snow is generally colder weather and by that implication should be harder ground, unless the snow is considerably deeper, then it becomes like mud in its effects. So game-wise, Snow/Mud could be approximately equal in effect, but both should be worse impediments to movement than Frozen.


Aditionally, the 'harsh' 'very harsh' conditions as defined should [must?] have an effect on cohesion/attrition. Any ideas how they work? This would help differentiate the issue even further....
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runyan99
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:30 pm

Harsh weather is an attrition issue. Guys get sick, horses starve.

Ground conditions are a cohesion issue. Wagons get stuck, roads blocked, columns string out.

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Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:35 pm

runyan99 wrote:Harsh weather is an attrition issue. Guys get sick, horses starve.

Ground conditions are a cohesion issue. Wagons get stuck, roads blocked, columns string out.


Thank you, sir. :king:
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Thu Mar 06, 2008 8:54 pm

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berto
AGEod Guard of Honor
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Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 7:13 pm
Location: Oak Park, IL, USA

Thu Mar 06, 2008 9:26 pm

runyan99 wrote:What was most needed to move troops were hard and clear roads. So from fastest to slowest the ground condition should be clear->frozen->snow->mud->blizzard.

Leaving attrition out of the relation, agreed. Factors other than movement rates should discourage deep winter campaigning (i.e., in frozen conditions).
What this town needs is a good Renaissance band!

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