Artillery replacments

[Captain_Orso]

*ahem* I already did that

[Gray Fox]

If 19 of 20 hits need to be replaced, then the USA got a spread of 17.4 to 46.6 average hits per chit. The CSA got 24.1 to 72.8 average hits. The analysis would be that the USA got less than the 20 hits of the actual unit from a replacement chit of similar cost only 10% of the time, but got more than twice the hits that an actual unit would have contained more than 30% of the time. The CSA always got more than a new unit's worth of hits from the chit. So using a chit is always better in the long run than paying the same cost for whole units and merging. Irregardless of the chance for an individual chit to be used up, chits are magically going to replace more hits for less cost than the alternative.

[W.Barksdale]

We cannot estimate probabilities from your previous experiment, as already stated. We have got some good info on the average number of hits though. Good assessment Gray Fox.

[Gray Fox]

Thanks! I still don't see why it was necessary to use magic chits and random chance rather than just getting one hit replaced for the cost of one hit. Supposedly, a certain percentage of hits lost to attrition and in combat return as replacement chits. So, lose X number of hits this way and get a chit with 2X+ hits in return. Hmm...

[Captain_Orso]

We cannot estimate probabilities from your previous experiment, as already stated. We have got some good info on the average number of hits though. Good assessment Gray Fox.

I have no idea what you expect. The probability is a function of the average, because the probability is not varying per any other factors, unless there is something else at work of which we know nothing.

Thanks! I still don't see why it was necessary to use magic chits and random chance rather than just getting one hit replaced for the cost of one hit. Supposedly, a certain percentage of hits lost to attrition and in combat return as replacement chits. So, lose X number of hits this way and get a chit with 2X+ hits in return. Hmm...

I would have wished for something else too. I can think of other solutions not needing die-rolls nor chance nor probabilities; simply buying blocks of hit-replacements (Replacement-CC's (RCC'S)) and using them directly in the current fashion. Missing elements would be replaced if there were enough RCC's in the pool; if not, it's not replaced until such time as there are enough RCC's.

It's not as if the engine would be over burdened by such minor accounting, nor the code by such a simple algorithm, but I wouldn't hold my breath on such a change.

[W.Barksdale]

I have no idea what you expect.

Exactly what I'm saying. To find out the probability that a chit is spent.

because the probability is not varying per any other factors, unless there is something else at work of which we know nothing.

What we know about it is from Gray_Lensman, from the very quote you posted a week ago in this very thread, here. Apparently the probability of being spent is varying depending on how damaged the element drawing on the chit is.

How it works: Say you have an element damaged at 60%. Providing you have a replacement chit for that element, a die is rolled at 30% odds (1/2 of 60%). If the 30% is rolled, the chit is used up, otherwise it remains unused. 90% damage would result in a 45% chance of a replacement chit being used up, etc. As above, totally destroyed elements within a multi-element brigade will always use up a replacement chit

[W.Barksdale]

Thanks! I still don't see why it was necessary to use magic chits and random chance rather than just getting one hit replaced for the cost of one hit. Supposedly, a certain percentage of hits lost to attrition and in combat return as replacement chits. So, lose X number of hits this way and get a chit with 2X+ hits in return. Hmm...

From a modelling point of view it makes sense to me. I would imagine that part of the cost of a new unit is administrative costs for getting the unit set up, regimental HQs, staff, and all that. Once it's set up it makes sense that replacements would have less cost than setting up an entire new unit.

What I never understood why they used 'hits' at all. Why not just use 'men'?

[Cardinal Ape]

Thanks! I still don't see why it was necessary to use magic chits and random chance rather than just getting one hit replaced for the cost of one hit. Supposedly, a certain percentage of hits lost to attrition and in combat return as replacement chits. So, lose X number of hits this way and get a chit with 2X+ hits in return. Hmm...

I have a feeling this issue is intertwined with balancing the economy. The idea of having to purchase twice as many replacements, especially as the South, sounds quite harsh. There would not be many resources left over for new recruits.

Lost hits come back as raw conscripts, not chits.

[Gray Fox]

http://www.ageod.net/agewiki/Replacements

"Replacement Chits
Replacement chits may be purchased. See the manual for each game for details, as each game uses a slightly different "currency".

Replacements may arrive for a player by event.

A portion of attrition and combat losses suffered in the field is also returned to the Replacement Pool. This represents, in part, injured soldiers returning to duty and stragglers rejoining their units. The number of conscript companies returned to the Replacement Pool is as follows:

1/3rd of combat losses is returned to the Replacement Pool as conscript companies,
2/3rds of attrition losses are returned to the Replacement Pool as conscript companies. "

and

"Replacement chits that are used to replace lost strength points are removed from the Replacement Pool when the last of their strength points is consumed."

It's rather confusing, but I read the "Replacement Pool" to be the Replacement Chit Pool.

However, it may be that hits lost to attrition and combat that then return as replacement chits would not get the magic doubling effect.

[Cardinal Ape]

My eyes go toward 'as conscript companies.'

I checked in game. On a turn were I wiped out a corps their conscript pool increased by over 300, no replacement chits in the pool.

I suppose the chits could have been granted and then immediately used, though I don't see how it is possible for the South to get that many men in a turn without using draft options. I'm pretty sure they come back as raw conscripts.


I see all the tests have been done with infantry chits. Is it safe to assume that other types of replacements provide around twice the amount of hits as an average unit of the type has? i.e. A Union artillery (12 hits) replacement would be expected to provide around 24 hits.

[Gray Fox]

I guess that the Wiki just needs some tweaking so that one phrase always means one specific thing. Thanks!