It is time to correct the weather modeling

[NormanMeek]

Having just had a CSA army stuck (and then unsupplied) in the muds of New Mexico from Feb to April, it occurs to me that the game designers don't have a clue about the actual probabilities of bad weather in the U.S. And what is sad is that long-term monthly data on average temperatures and rain are so readily available on the internet for every area on the map by just choosing a nearby town or city.

Generally speaking, the desert southwest (such as southern Arizona and New Mexico) gets most of its rain in the summer during the summer monsoon. The winters are cooler and comparatively dry (about 3 cm/month in the Tucson area), meaning that is when most fighting should occur. And as a rule, because desert soils are so sandy, the hard-packed roads were routed in a way that mud is only an issue where they cross the few flowing streams in the region (which are often hundreds of km apart), or pass by a notoriously muddy formation such as the Mancos shale. In my opinion, operations in the desert southwest should never be affected by weather, unless it is the extreme heat of the summer.

It is also shocking to me how often blizzards hit the prairies in April, and how often Texas gets harsh snow conditions. Sure, a couple of cm of snow can fall in Texas in the winter, but it usually melts and is gone the next day or two. It certainly wouldn't seriously affect military or supply operations in the region over a two week period. In my opinion, severe thunderstorms were a much bigger factor in the Civil War, such as at Shiloh, and could be modeled as a random possibility at the battle level based on the region and time of year.

Will someone please look at monthly averages of rain/snow for each area or state and change the probabilities of the weather types to more realistic values.

[1stvermont]

Having just had a CSA army stuck (and then unsupplied) in the muds of New Mexico from Feb to April, it occurs to me that the game designers don't have a clue about the actual probabilities of bad weather in the U.S. And what is sad is that long-term monthly data on average temperatures and rain are so readily available on the internet for every area on the map by just choosing a nearby town or city.

Generally speaking, the desert southwest (such as southern Arizona and New Mexico) gets most of its rain in the summer during the summer monsoon. The winters are cooler and comparatively dry (about 3 cm/month in the Tucson area), meaning that is when most fighting should occur. And as a rule, because desert soils are so sandy, the hard-packed roads were routed in a way that mud is only an issue where they cross the few flowing streams in the region (which are often hundreds of km apart), or pass by a notoriously muddy formation such as the Mancos shale. In my opinion, operations in the desert southwest should never be affected by weather, unless it is the extreme heat of the summer.

It is also shocking to me how often blizzards hit the prairies in April, and how often Texas gets harsh snow conditions. Sure, a couple of cm of snow can fall in Texas in the winter, but it usually melts and is gone the next day or two. It certainly wouldn't seriously affect military or supply operations in the region over a two week period. In my opinion, severe thunderstorms were a much bigger factor in the Civil War, such as at Shiloh, and could be modeled as a random possibility at the battle level based on the region and time of year.

Will someone please look at monthly averages of rain/snow for each area or state and change the probabilities of the weather types to more realistic values.

Weather changes,has always changed and always will. The civil war happened at the end of the "little ice age" weather was very different than. Weather patterns change with time. Texas had 6 inch plus snow storms reported during the civil war.

[NormanMeek]

What a poor response. The Civil War did not happen during any standard definition of the "Little Ice Age." The average weather hasn't changed much, if at all, since the Civil War. And because the climate averages go back to about 1880, the averages reflect the probability of what the "average" weather is likely to be in any area.

Moreover, you don't provide any supporting data for your speculations. Here's the actual average snow results for Texas: http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Texas/annual-snowfall.php

Only in the Texas panhandle region is it likely to snow 6" in the whole winter. Sure, freak storms can happen every few years, but in this game I'm seeing severe winter weather hit the Houston area for multiple turns every year, and that area has a long term average of 0" of annual snow. Bad weather that limits military operations should be the exception, not the rule.

My point is that freak storms happen all of the time in this game, such as the multi-month late-Winter mud in New Mexico in my game, and that just doesn't come close to reflecting reality.

[lodilefty]

Someone might try modding the weather Database......
The monthly probabilities can be easily adjusted for each weather zone.....

Weather simulation has long been difficult in all AGEOD games...... try simulating weather near the Great Lakes for 30 day turns [WIA]....

also, IMHO "Snow" for 2 weeks in Texas indicates a stretch of weather cold enough to cause hardship for forces in the field, not just literally "Snow on the ground". The effect over the course of two weeks on exposed troops is the objective of the simulation, not a literal detailed weather report.....

[1stvermont]

What a poor response. The Civil War did not happen during any standard definition of the "Little Ice Age." The average weather hasn't changed much, if at all, since the Civil War. And because the climate averages go back to about 1880, the averages reflect the probability of what the "average" weather is likely to be in any area.

Moreover, you don't provide any supporting data for your speculations. Here's the actual average snow results for Texas: http://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Texas/annual-snowfall.php

Only in the Texas panhandle region is it likely to snow 6" in the whole winter. Sure, freak storms can happen every few years, but in this game I'm seeing severe winter weather hit the Houston area for multiple turns every year, and that area has a long term average of 0" of annual snow. Bad weather that limits military operations should be the exception, not the rule.

My point is that freak storms happen all of the time in this game, such as the multi-month late-Winter mud in New Mexico in my game, and that just doesn't come close to reflecting reality.

I believe you missed my point some. Your response bases on the weather from your link

[color="#2F4F4F"]"The snowfall totals are annual averages based on weather data collected from 1981 to 2010 for the NOAA National Climatic Data Center."[/color]


than you go back and claim that means 1860's was just as in 1981-2010, this is the false assumption of uniformtarnism and you gave no supporting evidence for it.



I would say if anyone looked online into the little ice age and read reports in america of the 1700's and even into mid.late 1800's they would find the effects of the ending little ice age. I gave no supports as i thought it was not needed [and really dont care that much] and was simply letting the op know of the weather change that has happened.



"A cold period that lasted from about A.D. 1550 to about A.D. 1850 in Europe, North America, and Asia. This period was marked by rapid expansion of mountain glaciers, especially in the Alps, Norway, Ireland, and Alaska. There were three maxima, beginning about 1650, about 1770, and 1850, each separated by slight warming intervals."
NASA earth observatory


If we assume weather today was like it was than, than sure it does not work. My whole response was it was at the end of the little ice age and colder than norm. Weather changes drastically and has in recent times. Here is article wit reports from Texas and new mexico from time of civil war and before when little ice age effected armies that are now dessert.
http://www.desertusa.com/desert-activity/little-ice-age.html


But important to what your saying "About the middle of the 19th century, the Little Ice Age began to fade, and by the beginning of the 20th century, our climate in the Southwest had evolved into the pattern we know today.


So you cant judge todays climate or even the 1880's and say that is the climate of the civil war that was still effected by the end of the little ice age.

[DrPostman]

I think that what everyone is missing is that operations in the Far West
happened at a snails pace during the war. That ends up happening in
every game I play. Not entirely accurate, but it works for the game as
a whole.

[Rod Smart]

Having the weather say "rain and mud" is just an easy way to model "you're in the desert, supply and movement sucks"

[Captain_Orso]

No, the 'desert' already has its own restricted supply and unit movement. Moving through the desert is not necessarily difficult. The issue is not having enough water sources and the lack of a supply structure.

[ArmChairGeneral]

I do agree with the OP's point that the flavor of the weather in this region is a little off. I have spent a considerable amount of time hiking and back-country camping in SE New Mexico, and I can personally attest that even accounting for a slightly different climate in the 1860s, foot travel is far safer and easier during the winter than the summer because of cooler temperatures and better access to water.

Today it is regularly 100+ degrees Fahrenheit during the months of June, July and August, and those temps are not uncommon in May and September either, especially at lower elevations and in exposed locations. This is where they did the early atomic tests, so most people have seen the footage: it is harsh country, not somewhere you just go walking around in. I have definitely seen snow in the winter, especially on the plateau east of the Rio Grande Valley (what is today the Lincoln National Forest) but as the OP said it doesn't stick around, and the land is so dry that it is not muddy within a few days of the snow melting. (The area I am talking about is the southeastern quarter of New Mexico, the part from El Paso north to roughly Valencia on the game map and east all the way to the Texas border.)

However, I fall into DrPostman's camp: "Not entirely accurate, but it works for the game as a whole." I am happy with the relative challenge and difficulty of military operations in this region. "Fixing" the weather problems would mean that there would be Clear weather on more than 75% of turns. In terms of AGEOD mechanics, Clear is the most beneficial weather type, encouraging mobility in these regions when it rather ought to be impeded. A more accurate weather system would entail adjusting the terrain in the area to make it harder to move around in to compensate.

The campaigning season in Virginia, which is more important for the game to model accurately, is the opposite of what it is in New Mexico and West Texas. In game terms, this means that you end up conforming to the same cycle as further East rather than being opposite it. This means a 6 month differential from strict historical accuracy for the region, which is not ideal, but it still results in 4-5 months out of the year it is hard to do business out there, which IS a reasonable depiction of the military challenges of operating in the region.

I just mentally substitute "Mud" for "Ridiculously Hot and Dry," accept the fact that it occurs at the wrong time of the year, and arrive at what I think is still a pretty reasonable depiction of the challenges a military expedition in the area would face. If anything the game is TOO lenient on moving around there for the majority of the year. I mean seriously, drive from El Paso to Alamogordo, turn off the air-conditioner and just look out the window!

tl;dr: Yes, but not worth fixing since it ends up playing about right anyway.