Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:08 pm
OK, I just ran about 20 tests and dug through their logs to determine whether MTSG uses rail movement or not, and the results are... inconclusive.
When I originally ran the tests, I had thought that Commit Chance (listed at the beginning of each round during the stack-targeting portion of the log) referred to the chance to MTSG, but after this round of testing, I am starting to think that Commit Chance refers to something else. If that is the case, then I can't find ANY entries in the battlelog that refer to the MTSG percentage roll.
That being said, though I did not have a statistically large enough sample to draw any valid conclusions, the battles I tested resulted in MTSG behavior just as often without rail orders as with; it happened almost every single time under both orders. Unfortunately, the sandbox I threw together had pretty low marching times, 7 days. What I really need to do is click through some scenario until I can get some snow or mud in the appropriate regions to get a base time of 12+ days, so that the rail vs no rail probabilities are as far apart as they can be. Then it should be pretty obvious after ten repeats or so whether there is a difference between the two.
Unfortunately I used the Shiloh scenario as the sandbox, which has pretty good weather and is too short to let me hold out for the bad stuff, so I will have to start a different scenario and organize, click through, etc. to get the right conditions. Unfortunately I will not be able to get to it again until after Thanksgiving, so if anyone else wants to give it a go in the meantime....