Sibley Campaign - Is it Winnable for the CSA?

[G-Burg Bullet]

Just played the Sibley Campaign scenario several times on both sides. I learned just how daunting (some would say foolish!) Sibley's plan was. Just like in real life, I was pretty easily able to advance up the Rio Grande, defeat Canby a few times and take Albuquerque, Santa Fe, Las Vegas, etc. However, this did not provide enough NM to make a dent toward winning that way, nor did it provide enough VP's to win by points by the end of the scenario. I was able to hold El Paso, Mesilla and Tucson, but it's only a matter of time before the California Column and Carlton's bluecoats show up at El Paso's door with Sibley hundreds of miles up river on his invasion. It seems altogether impossible for Sibley to get anywhere near the Colorado goldfields or California. Plus you've got Kit Carson and Indians all over the place to make your supply lines impossible to hold. I'm amazed that Sibley was even able to "sell" Jefferson Davis on the crazy plan.

My question is simple - Has anyone been able to win as the CSA and how? I'd love to know.

[ArmChairGeneral]

I won once as the CSA with VPs, but only barely. Victories in the field and capturing Santa Fe early enough were what put me over the top, plus I avoided spending VPs via RGD. I was able to bring the California column to battle on the first turn after it arrived from the off map boxes, catching it with a combined arms force and inflicting a bunch of hits while it was still low on cohesion from the two-turn march. I was then able to box it out of any supply or shelter and the remainder melted away in the desert. This was with AI attrition on, I don't know if I would have been able to pull this off otherwise. I also managed to catch a couple of lone Mtd Vols in the wilderness after they had lost skirmishes against stockades. VPs awarded through battle are kind of opaque, I have read that you get them, but have never been able to pin down how many you get, under what conditions, etc. since they are not listed in the message box.

I think you are right about the gold fields. In the Grand Campaign, after destroying Fts. Garland Lyons and Aubrey, I have used the two forts that border Denver as bases to harass it and Golden, capturing them a few times, but I never really was able to hold them because all I could get into the area were rangers (I used Demonstrations to get the towns over 50% so the rangers could take them.) I don't think Sibley is winnable by NM as the CSA. A lot of the WIA scenarios were like that too, where VP victories were the only kind realistically possible.

[ArmChairGeneral]

I have been thinking about Denver some more. I can't check this out right now because I am busy playing out a full campaign and am well past the point where I could try this. It might be possible to send some Rangers to Colorado that could catch Denver and Golden undefended early if you used cards to raise the loyalty. If you could get both cities at any one time the union would not have any build points in the area (Can they build at South Park? If so then forget this plan) giving you some breathing room to get a couple of cav elements up there to stiffen the defense against any liberators trying to come in from Nevada or New Mexico. You would probably have to do some jockeying and Athena would have to make a mistake, but it might be possible. You would need to be able to get both cities though, otherwise she could just build in the other. Don't know how long you could keep them, but you might be able to keep moving around between Golden, Denver and the two stockades nearby to at least get some turns in which you got the VPs for Denver and cause Athena to divert New Mexican troops back North giving you an advantage in New Mexico that you might be able to press home.

You would need to be able to take out at least one militia (I think one starts locked in Denver in most scenarios, I play CSA though so will have to check) and you would need to be able to win against an autogarrison in Golden. The Union would definitely have to make a mistake though, just a couple of elements of militia would stop the whole thing. It would have to be done VERY quickly (maybe we could call it the Gold Rush) but if it failed you could still take out Lyons and Garland and use that force to harass reinforcements headed to New Mexico like normal. It certainly wouldn't work consistently, but might be able to get you enough VPs to eke out a win if things went your way. I am going to give it a shot next time I start a new game, although I am not holding my breath. It sounds far-fetched, but I can't think of any other way you could actually get Denver long enough to make a difference.

[ArmChairGeneral]

OK, I tested this out a bit. First, Grand Campaign only. The map and the force pools are different in Sibley, and I don't see how a ranger/cav rush could succeed. Second, I had better success than I thought I would, managing to overwhelm lone militias in Denver and Golden early with four Rangers built at Adobe Wells. The Union had a cav element in the area and we traded back and forth. I split in two to try to hold both cities from the cav (one cav can't dislodge two rangers), but then forces came in from New Mexico and chased me out. I probably held one or both of them for five or six turns. I didn't get Lyons and Garland burnt like usual though, and could have played the moves better, and didn't get a chance to do anything with the two stockades next to Denver, so I could have played better. All in all, it is still a longshot, but I would say that in the April Campaign a Gold Rush is at least possible.

I also played some Sibley run throughs, and I have to wonder how I ever won. That was in 1.01 and several months ago, but it can't have changed that much. You start with an 8 VP per turn deficit which you can only make up by capturing Albuquerque, Santa Fe AND Mora. This will take AT LEAST 8 turns leaving you 60+ in the hole and only gaining 3 per turn . You can pick some up by taking stockades, but you will have to burn them which only nets you 2 VP and there aren't that many on this map. You could get some VP in combat, but you have to outright destroy elements to get any. The main forces are close in size, so that is hard to pull off. I have concentrated on trying to catch isolated forces to get some VPs, and it has helped (though hoping stockades autogarrison so I can try to get a VP off them feels kinda gamey). I managed to trap the California column in the desert again, but only destroyed one element in combat that I got VPs for. In three tries the closest I got was a 23 point loss.

How about you, any more luck?

[G-Burg Bullet]

Nope! That's pretty much why I started this thread. I couldn't see any way to win as the CSA. I liked your Ranger/Cav rush gambit, but I have only played Sibley -- not the Grand Campaign. Like in real life, I have concluded that the whole campaign is/was just a fool's errand for Sibley. It's a hell of a LONG way from El Paso to the goldfields of Colorado with lots of problems behind you as you make the long trek north. I still found the whole thing enormously entertaining. Just thought I might be missing some great strategic nugget (bad pun). I'll keep trying. Anyone else play this one as CSA? Did you manage to win?

[conan]

I have played several times with CSA, and no way I can win. I want to play it as Union as bad as possible to know if at least the AI can win somehow.

[Durk]

I have not played versus AI, so my pbem experience may not be relevant to your concern. The key is to decisively defeat either major Union force (do not discount the California force as a potential target). As supply is at a premium and retreat from an enemy controlled (by loyalty) region is difficult, win a battle in a city/fort region. Then shift to the defensive so your opponent must retreat or lose forces. Because of Sibley's random handicap, you do need a bit of luck. I find VP are easier to win in battle rather than in territory.