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Egg Bub
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Demand dropping after 1.03 patch

Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:50 pm

I applied the patch to my 1852 Britain GC and within a few months, demand has dropped globally for most items (not supply). I have heard of a coal crisis around this time but coal, manufactured goods, steel and mechanical parts are hardly selling at all. As Britain, I have trade fleets in almost all MTBs. Is this normal and can anything be done about it?

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Kensai
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Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:38 pm

Are you buying enough stuff from minor nations? Especially the minor nations need your contribution to prosper. Buying their produce and selling them your own is the best way. So don't buy from France or Prussia, try to buy from Chile or Siam. Also, do a survey on most regions (mouseover foreign structures) and see if productivity of certain structures has fallen to zero. If this is the case, it means they have shut down because of strikes and riots because they couldn't provide to their local economies their people wanted the previous months (low contentment).
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Egg Bub
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Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:18 pm

There is definitely something strange going on, because global production of steel and coal is massive. South America is producing more steel than Europe - which is making steel worthless and nobody buys it.

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Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:36 am

Hmm, in 1852 you have steel mills in South America? Yes, this is strange... are you sure it's not accumulated (and resold) there because these nations bought it the previous months? There will be ups and downs in production and trade availability, you should not worry much unless you run out of a resource.
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Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:08 pm

You are right. There are almost no steel mills in South America. They seem to have bought up huge stockpiles which they are now selling. There is no serious problem for me, but I am building up lots of steel and I can't sell it.

1) I have 650 steel now - when will I start losing it though shrinkage?

2) What does the "excess" tooltip mean in the B window? It seems not to depend on the amount of a resource that I have.

3) Producing too much steel will be a waste of capital if there is shrinkage - are there negative consequences of turning off steel mills for several turns?

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Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:04 pm

1) Why don't you simply turn off production in the factories? Turn the off through the small lightning icon. When prices are high again (demand) you can recommence production. This is a general advice. You will have to "learn" this kind of behavior which is very close to real life btw. I remember few years ago how cheap was computer memory because from overcapacity by Taiwanese foundries.

2) It means that probably your population cannot consume this resource/product and you may sell it. If your population cannot absorb it may appear there even if you don't have that much in absolute numbers.

3) Apart from the fact that the workers will be unhappy for losing their work, no. Perhaps you should watch the region(s) you shut down the factories for contentment issues the following months.
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Egg Bub
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Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:35 pm

Thanks for the help.

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Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:45 am

I think the mass production is due to the craftsmen. It is so unhistorical, and it may takes years for demand to pick up and digest the production surplus. I played to 1860 and the over-production is still horrendous...

Egg Bub wrote:Thanks for the help.

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Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:41 pm

For 1.03, they increased the amount of goods produced by craftsmen, which I think has had the effect of oversupplying the world with certain goods. This was at the request of some players (can't remember which thread right now, but it was asked for).
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Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:53 pm

Well, maybe it got a little bit overpowered. Together with the new businessmen events. I think v1.04 should get it more or less back to where it was or at least update consumption.

What certainly needs update for EVERY new game are the pools:

  • structure pools
  • colonial action pools


The should be limited according to each nation to a much lower number. Perhaps updated in 1880 and again in 1910 (just before WWI). Force pools seem to be working perfectly.
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Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:17 pm

It is definitely overdone. The craftsmen idea is not bad, V2 used the same idea to solve the shortage of goods at the early dates. But I am now in 1860, there are still too many goods in almost all categories.

BTW in the first a few months of the game, the world is short of steel and manufactured goods. But in a few months it will be flooded with everything. How could this happen?

Jim-NC wrote:For 1.03, they increased the amount of goods produced by craftsmen, which I think has had the effect of oversupplying the world with certain goods. This was at the request of some players (can't remember which thread right now, but it was asked for).

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Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:29 am

There is room for some fine tuning for the formula for craftsmen production to be responsive to the local economy's needs and available foreign sources of supply and to a lesser extent demand.

Colonial actions should offer a "reduced" option that cuts them down as extensively discussed elsewhere to provide a slower mid-century pace of colonization activity more line line with history. Those who want to rush things in SP or MP can keep the current values.

There are already player options to change the structure pools. A lower pools option might be added for those who think the current totals are too much. I think judgment as to the best default options should await evidence from games running at least 60 years (that last decade seems a lot more complicated).

Given that the cost of new resource structures increases with the number a country has, there is already a constraint.

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Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:22 am

Wait 60 years? But in just 16 Sweden has the same capacity as Italy in producing manufactured and luxury goods. The added cost of the next structure is negligent. Structure pools should give back balance. Countries such as Sweden should be able to create a limited industry so early in the game, max 1-2 structures of each type. With their productive ruler they have already more than enough to satisfy their population and sell the excess. There is no need for dumping their products and flooding the global market.

Bear in mind that to accurately portray structure pools, changes for each nation might be in order (a laborious process) for different eras (say 1850, 1880, 1910). For example, Japan might not be allowed to create railroads before the 1872 Yokohama-Tokyo line. That was the trigger event in real life. And if it is allowed, it should cost an exorbitant amount of money to feel like the real thing of such an enterprise before restoration.

I am not certain if such trimming is even possible, given the work it is needed. But perhaps it is worth it, starting from the playable nations.
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Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:06 am

Jim-NC wrote:For 1.03, they increased the amount of goods produced by craftsmen, which I think has had the effect of oversupplying the world with certain goods. This was at the request of some players (can't remember which thread right now, but it was asked for).

Yes, this is the case.
The reality is that early on, this gives a huge surplus of "advanced goods" (industrial and other very important raw materials) early on in the game, because most of the minors that are now producing 1 or 2 units per turn of these resources have no real use for them... so, in the short term, they drop those resources in the world market.
It is a side effect that we need to cope with...
In the long term, this new higher craftmen production (before it was 0 for almost everything except food for minors) allows the minors to be able to build a couple of advanced structures and maintain them properly... before, it was next to impossible for a minor nation like Brazil or Portugal to be able to industrialize at least part of their economy, because they depended almost entirely on the foreign market. Now, their craftmen produce those precious resources... so, in the long run, you will see more "robust economies" than before.... but like I said before, early in the game, there is an overproduction because most of these nations have no real use for those resources.
As long as you advance into the game, you will notice the real idea behind the change... mechanicals and chemicals for example, become extremely important later, and all the minors without this craftmen production become next to unplayable. ;)

By the way, majors also got their craftmen production increased... but when you consume 200 units of coal, you clearly do not notice the difference of a couple of units more in your stockpile... hehe :p
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Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:09 am

saileaf wrote:BTW in the first a few months of the game, the world is short of steel and manufactured goods. But in a few months it will be flooded with everything. How could this happen?

Because the minors try to create a "safe stockpile" first... after they have enough and feel secure, they start selling the surplus... and the effectively "flooding" the market. :(
Like I said before, early on there is no real need for those resource on most of the minors... but give them a couple of months and they will create a demand for those resources because they will try to build their industrial structures like anyone else.
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Wed Sep 12, 2012 7:43 am

Can you simulate a gradual increase of craftsmen production? Meaning low in 1850, higher in 1880, maxed at 1910? If you could connect this with lower structure pools for the same eras it would be ideal. If it is difficult and laborious, create a template for two-three major nations and I will adapt it to the 24 of our MP game which is almost the 90% of the countries in the game it is worth playing (as the rest of them have really small economies or are tribal). :)
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Thu Sep 20, 2012 8:13 pm

Kensai wrote:Can you simulate a gradual increase of craftsmen production? Meaning low in 1850, higher in 1880, maxed at 1910? If you could connect this with lower structure pools for the same eras it would be ideal. If it is difficult and laborious, create a template for two-three major nations and I will adapt it to the 24 of our MP game which is almost the 90% of the countries in the game it is worth playing (as the rest of them have really small economies or are tribal). :)

Yes, it actually works that way right now... the craftmen production is lower in 1850 than in 1900... I have tested a lot that before releasing the 1.03... I had to create a lot of new faction modifiers to be able to simulate that.
The problem is that the engine uses integers... so, the abstract production must be >0 or it will not be there at all (0*X ... is always 0 hehe ;) ).
So, even if Bolivia produces 1 mechanical per turn (the minimum)... in a year, it is 24 that is not being used at all... that's the problem.

I was thinking about this a bit more... maybe it will be a good idea to change most of the South/Central America countries to "Unstable" instead of "Minor".... the unstable ones do not produce those kind of goods, so early in the game, that will help the world market to avoid the over production of industrial goods.
Later, the new rulers for those countries should automatically "transform" these nations into minors so they can produce those resources abstractly... ;)
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Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:18 am

Kensai wrote:What certainly needs update for EVERY new game are the pools:

  • structure pools
  • colonial action pools

The should be limited according to each nation to a much lower number. Perhaps updated in 1880 and again in 1910 (just before WWI).


The game with lowered colonial action pools does have a more measured pace.

Another more targeted way to limit early penetration of the dark continent (and some other inhospitable areas) would be medical technologies which reduce otherwise horrendous attrition to disease as well as greater structure decay in the jungles and off the coasts. The player should be repeatedly warned and the AI should be cognizant of this - maybe a special icon or shading for the especially hazardous areas.

Allowing a player the option to play with slashed structure pools would be one thing, but it would need to be shown that this is necessary, not harmful, and that there are no better solutions that are less drastic.

Craftsmen production (CPRO) is great to alleviate the friction and represent an important portion of the economy - the only sector of production before the large economic enterpirises represented by structures on the map.

If a commodity is consistently in unsold surplus across the map, this should crowd out most (or all but one) CPRO of that commodity in countries which COULD buy it on the market. If a commodity is totally unavailable but in demand from the population or industry (critical point) that should stimulate production rising up to meet at least part of internal market demand (we don't want it to displace foreign supply). To send the right market signals and encourage trade, demand before use of CPRO could be shown in the Asset (B)alance and demand could be met first with non-CPRO available in order to encourage trade. CPRO then recedes as imports with better value for money increase.

In between the extremes of surplus and scarcity the CPRO would be at intermediate levels, but always liable to fall off when supply becomes more ample.

Stocks should top off at a low level and not increase beyond it unless depleted. A country's CPRO could shift among merchandise types as conditions change.

It is realistic but not necessary that high price over several turns have some limited effect increasing CPRO. Not necessary, because this is about local production supplying unmet needs, not intended to affect overall competition in global markets.

This does require some "memory" averaging of demand and supply conditions, but we already have that data for each product going back some turns.

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Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:32 pm

I am not sure I agree with this approach.

First of all, shouldn't the craftsmen's goods be pushed out gradually by more and more efficient factories and deeper and deeper market penetration?

Secondly I could see craftsmen produced a lot of agricultural and commodity goods. But industrial goods too? Don't they need steel mills and factories to produce steel and mechanical parts?

Current implementation is a little unrealistic.

Generalisimo wrote:Yes, it actually works that way right now... the craftmen production is lower in 1850 than in 1900... I have tested a lot that before releasing the 1.03... I had to create a lot of new faction modifiers to be able to simulate that.
The problem is that the engine uses integers... so, the abstract production must be >0 or it will not be there at all (0*X ... is always 0 hehe ;) ).
So, even if Bolivia produces 1 mechanical per turn (the minimum)... in a year, it is 24 that is not being used at all... that's the problem.

I was thinking about this a bit more... maybe it will be a good idea to change most of the South/Central America countries to "Unstable" instead of "Minor".... the unstable ones do not produce those kind of goods, so early in the game, that will help the world market to avoid the over production of industrial goods.
Later, the new rulers for those countries should automatically "transform" these nations into minors so they can produce those resources abstractly... ;)

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Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:35 am

It's not unrealistic. Industrial production would have meant many units of resources per turn (say, mechanical parts or chemicals), craftsmen means the minimum possible (virtually from everything) just to get the economy of minors going. I think that supply will be fixed once most structure pools are set to something realistically low the player(s) or AI cannot swamp the market with goods as early as the 1850s. Fix this and supply will be curbed.
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Sun Sep 23, 2012 4:07 am

Craftsmen production includes factories, but small ones - there is an implication that it is not mass production, however standardized parts could well be used. The booming Japanese firearms industry in the late 1500s used standardized parts, bores and balls - albeit each manufactory set its own standard. It was very useful in the field with each unit armed from a common supplier. Europe lagged in that innovation. So crafsmen production could be substantial, but is essentially local and could be marginalized by competition with economies of scale and technical efficiencies IF that competition actually reached into the market.

As it is now, I am seeing craftsmen production that in some cases much exceeds local demand and in the face of global surplus offers, as well as crafstmen production of things like Mfg Goods and Mechanical Parts that does not seem to be crowded out at all by the presence of factories seeking to meet that market demand.

Once again, the devs already added increasing marginal cost to the structure pools and a procrustean approach to structure pools would be rash, particularly in SP where the player may need to build what others do not.

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Sun Sep 23, 2012 5:08 pm

Sir Garnet, in our game though, I have started seeing what I always wanted to see! :)
In the last years, smaller nations (Peru, Montenegro, Siam) have started asking for products, goods, and resources. This means their economies are healthy and the majors (Japan for sure!) are buying from them while reselling them what they need to prosper (usually taking raw resources and supplying manufactured products). I presume that this eventually will mean that their "demands" for better things will rise, eventually offsetting the extra supply with healthy demand. Boernes might be right all along.

PS. As Portugal and Brazil, build a lot of merchant ships to access the potential of the smallest markets: Mediterranean Sea, North Sea, Caribbean, West Pacific, and Southeast Asia have all small independent nations that you can buy from directly. I am wondering if it might be good to give these small nations a single "merchant ship" unit and leave the AI decide where to send it. I hope that the AI is intelligent enough to send it to an MTB.
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Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:32 pm

Buying is not a problem for Brazil. All goods are in stock. Being unable to sell products to countries that want them as shown by orders but can't buy them is the crippling problem. Immigration and turning peasants into workers by new construction will increase internal demand over time, but that is still a relatively small number essentially disconnected with production (failure to represent Say's law is the big and serious demand side issue in the game).

Your trade advice should be to make deals with major powers with access to all markets to buy and resell these products everywhere in sufficiently greater quantities that these unsatisfied orders could be met.

Portugal by comparison is poor in resources until colonies can be further developed over time so needs careful management of purchases to avoid a balance of payments problem.

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Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:40 pm

Sir Garnet wrote:Being unable to sell products to countries that want them as shown by orders but can't buy them is the crippling problem.

I insist that you have this wrong. Since the AI is restricted by the same rules as the player, you can't possibly "see" orders from minor nations that can't be processed. As a minor (Greece) countries such as as Brazil and Portugal (other minors) are greyed out, I cannot place an order. So minor nations do NOT place orders that you can see, cause they cannot access you. If they can, it is another kind of bug, but I don't think so.
As Japan I already buy a lot of stuff from Brazil, but probably my private capital for the fortnight finishes before all transactions are done.

Immigration and turning peasants into workers by new construction will increase internal demand over time, but that is still a relatively small number essentially disconnected with production (failure to represent Say's law is the big and serious demand side issue in the game).

Future technologies raise internal production. Boernes who has played up to 1900+ said not to worry. :)

Your trade advice should be to make deals with major powers with access to all markets to buy and resell these products everywhere in sufficiently greater quantities that these unsatisfied orders could be met.

Portugal by comparison is poor in resources until colonies can be further developed over time so needs careful management of purchases to avoid a balance of payments problem.


Yes, both these suggestions make sense. You're gonna love Japan in a couple of years! :D
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Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:45 pm

Kensai, it's not that we can't purchase from another minor (without a fleet). The problem is that the major countries are always selling enough.

Let me give an example, the major countries are selling 50 units, but have demand of 100. The minors are selling 50 units but have demand of 10. Thus a minor may want the item, but can't buy from another minor who has the good, but is forced into competition to purchase from the majors, who aren't selling enough, and/or aren't buying enough from the minors. In my example, total selling is 100, and total demand is 110, which is relatively good, but in actuality total purchasing is 60. Thus 40 units of demand are not being fulfilled.

If as a minor I can't get that good as there is too much competition then it is bad for me, and I will attempt to make my own stuff in enough quantity to satisfy my people, and thus I don't purchase from the majors as I know there isn't enough reliable supply. Why should I attempt to become a niche producer of good x, as I know only some countries can buy. I do better as a producer of everything as I can't get what I need. This is part of what is driving the minors to produce so much, and not purchase from the majors. I feel I have to have certain goods, and thus will try everything to get enough of that good from my population.
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Mon Sep 24, 2012 6:34 pm

Kensai wrote:I insist that you have this wrong. Since the AI is restricted by the same rules as the player, you can't possibly "see" orders from minor nations that can't be processed. As a minor (Greece) countries such as as Brazil and Portugal (other minors) are greyed out, I cannot place an order. So minor nations do NOT place orders that you can see, cause they cannot access you. If they can, it is another kind of bug, but I don't think so.
As Japan I already buy a lot of stuff from Brazil, but probably my private capital for the fortnight finishes before all transactions are done.


Future technologies raise internal production. Boernes who has played up to 1900+ said not to worry. :)



Yes, both these suggestions make sense. You're gonna love Japan in a couple of years! :D


You can be very insistent. But the Asset Balance itself insists on placing orders where it pleases when clicked and reporting the totals offered and demanded turn after turn on tooltips to players who know the secret key to view it and how to use a mouse. Even minor country players can do this. Where the numbers are steady, and offers less than demands turn after turn in one trade area, while there is ample surplus available elsewhere - there is unsatisfied demand in the market because of restrictions on where merchantmen can buy and sell.

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Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:50 am

I was not aware that I can buy from places I... can't buy through the B screen. Well, this is a bug if it happens. But we should fix this (the ability of minors to buy where they couldn't) instead of lifting the restrictions completely.
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