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Ebbingford
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Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:54 am

I am playing as Brits with a campaign started under oscar and have yet to see one of these economic crisis, I am now in sep 1854. :thumbsup:

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yellow ribbon
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Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:38 am

ebbingford, you should be grateful...

:8o:

what i reported here various times, its reported in other forums too:

in both test runs wit US GC and the the run with the Prussian GC i had no inflation in my economy, and seen all in all FIVE economic crisis events in three games, always within 5 years of gameplay with US, 3 with Prussia

then i started a "real" game and again no inflation on my side, but two economic crisis events within 5 years.

now make the calculation again:

lets assume an average of about 2,5 years between crisis, less than 30 months at max then.

most important now is the new reform. it triggers only if you are above 10% inflation. and only at max twice a year.

penalty is a median of 20% additional inflation

that means an absolute max of TWO TIMES you can use it (if no other inflation is given)

if you have economic sunrises before you can afford the second use of a reforms, you maybe below 10% and thus not able to use the reform. i have seen that!

lets say you recover from the crisis shock (moral) within 6 turns, leaving about 24 months left to have any economic sunrise

lets assume you have an economic sunrise all three month on average, in our calculation then up to 7-8 times at max.

[color="Red"]you reduce inflation by max 10% (two times 5% from reform) before reform is gone, and 7-8 times 1% (from economic sunrise, on average)[/color]

if nothing goes wrong in time between:

IT LEAVES YOU INFLATION WHICH TRIGGERS THE NEXT CRISIS POSSIBLY

(in my case 4% after the first crisis)

AI is barely using the reform, subsidies are out of discussion for you get then only if you have nearly none in stock. most nations dont end that low.

WHAT LEADS TO PRETTY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT ONCE CRISIS IS TRIGGERED, NEXT ONE MIGHT FOLLOW.

and additionally:

with US, a that strong economy that my maintenance costs would have covered 70% of the original amount of money the crisis calculation checks on global scale, DESPITE limited building options...????

and we are only talking about the 1850s here, i played it before OSCAR up to the end of 1860s, and therefore up to mid 1870s


HOW CAN ONE SCREW IT UP THAT MUCH IN SO FEW TIME like with this crisis model?

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yellow ribbon
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Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:57 am

devs, i am observing a situation which is confusing me:

in northern america, when i get MC over the tribes nations provinces, the stacks of th tribes will be displaced and transfered to the next province of them, will they?

i do have Cherokee in the Dakota territory in a province now and Cree stacks in Cherokee and Dakota territory...
I never had them summed up in provinces that way before OSCAR

Cree just walking from Canadian border to Oklahoma ????

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yellow ribbon
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Sun Oct 02, 2011 5:00 pm

F.U.B.A.R.

(sorry)

i find it interesting that some people observe no economic crisis with the patch OSCAR.

one would even find people who claim it would be impossible to have a crisis after 2,5 years again...


well, just for your consideration:

I wrote in this thread that my first crisis was

about 1852 triggered from Austria

my second spread to me in early September 1854 from Russia

now its late February 1857 and in the very game i got a third crisis from Prussia

EDIT:

next was August 1861,
again: all inflation in my nation came from the last economic crisis, despite casual economic sunrise and reform

next was January 1864, started from UK, rest of inflation 13% (first time some was my own fault, from rebuilding economy during ACW)

who would wonder: its June 1866 and the US with 37% inflation, have triggered an economic crisis...

next, June 1868

next, September 1870

lets say a crisis lasts 10-14 months...

hum... as i had not inflation in the very beginning, 4% after the second crisis, 7% [color="Red"](with even more time between the 2nd and the 3rd crisis than i calculated above)[/color] at the beginning of the third crisis, crisis was triggered from three different countries, i really ask myself whether you all have that much luck, or whether most people are that angry that they only keep on playing with CLOSED (thus exempted) economies...

but as ONE said lately: "one bird song don't make spring" :indien:

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yellow ribbon
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Mon Oct 03, 2011 10:46 pm

and the series keeps on...

the third economic crisis ended already in late September 1857

for seven months i have not seen ANY of the reform icons, but the reform against inflation i used in january 1857.

after that crisis i had 13% inflation left.

NEW:

my tycoons lobbyed my government to more protectionism

also:

my people demanded social reforms


I BELIEVE one of this events lowered my inflation, but increased my militarism...

weird, after the crisis was over whole Manhattan rioted and put up a strike until 1858.
the first time economic crisis does harm my economy... ;)

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Random
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Mon Oct 03, 2011 11:01 pm

Just hit 1856 as Russia and patch O for Oscar. The economy is fairly healthy, only one economic crisis to date that was weathered successfully in the winter of '54. Unhappiness no more than one might expect from a population that's mostly servile's and entirely manageable without calling out the Army.

I expect industrialization to be socially difficult as it was historically.

So, am not seeing all the social and economic problems Yellow Ribbon seems to be having.

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yellow ribbon
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Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:11 am

Random,

even if you would have the same number of crisis behind you, you wouldnt feel a that deep impact of militarism/militancy...

why? ask the czar! even if you would have the same impact the government your country has, would just easily declare martial law.
i described it plenty of times,that even Russia can just step over the crisis...

some weeks ago there was the same discussion why players of Prussia cant feel a that hard impact, while France was crippled.
if one plays China, Japan (the first years) or Siam etc, he would never see a crisis, not the impact, due to the CLOSED economy.

i do everything i can, no inflation, tariffs to the upper limit... again, again, again.

but dont worry, since there was a colonial action glitch in north america, the devs should have seen in a saved game from me that i had a second crisis already in the 1855s ;)

BTW:

i said and wrote it numberless times, that the way the crisis is designed NO economy but the very minors without industries would have problems in the economy.
Why? if you can deal with multple bonus and malus from your administration in F1, if you can deal with the all-5-structures-price-jump and you can deal with the additional costs from rough terrain, the 20% inflation is A BAD JOKE.

same is true for the mechanism the crisis is triggered by. i am in 1858 my maintenance costs are 2200 PC, my stock is 5400 PC, i have limited structures and cannot build much more than gem fields, cotton plantations, opium field and sheep farms.
inflation comes only from crisis. Ai does not deal with crisis, guess what will come next...right, A CRISIS due to too much capital in the accounts and inflation...

A self-sustaining system never ever fit to get the originally desired effects. you can alter as much as you want, this will never work.

players of minors will be overwhelmed, players of medium sized economies will just wait, experienced players do have economies which just get over the crisis despite all effects.

especially never due to the long time of over 1600 turns.

problem, after 8 years of gameplay i never produced any own inflation and just got it from the penalty effects.

i never managed to lower inflation completely before the next crisis, neither does AI (not do they even try it).
thus everytime it increases a bit more.

now i havent even seen reforms at all and median national happiness decreased 12%, militarism/militancy grew 11% (additional to 2% the year started with) within few months... :wacko:

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yellow ribbon
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Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:17 pm

January 1860

1.) UK and Russia never stopped their war and UK is loosing NW and Central Canada...

2.) Oregon territory gets statehood and provinces will be national, but one has to deploy troops there, before you get any MC

3.) i guess you worked a bit on the objective list F10, Samoa was never announced to be a objective in the 1850s.

so far so good, since i did not know what to do the last years, i built a brigade marines and deployed it on this isle and suddenly it started to be a objective.

i tried it three times in different months, it has the same effect. thus, unfortunately if someone knows the strategic objectives from earlier games, he might cheat...

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Pocus
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Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:32 pm

The system should not be self sustaining in latest patch, except if bugs are still there... When a crisis ends up, you should recover most if not all the inflation, without even counting the anti-inflation reform you can pass and the random event that will remove from time to time 1% of inflation. Plus the AI have special measures to reduce further inflation...

We will inspect further the model, perhaps a bug went under the radar.
Image


Hofstadter's Law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's law."

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yellow ribbon
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Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:46 pm

good evening Pocus,

well... if it is there, it did fly below the surface. I understand your point, but see...

i used everything what is possible, and the reform against inflation was the only one appearing in the third crisis, i made quite a few use of it.

i am in 1860 now and still have the inflation i got from the three crises event!

yeah, economic sunrise is(was) there and sometimes i had over 7000 PC in stock, no further inflation trigger then.... :(

EDIT: so it does appear, non of the changes you mentioned work straight...

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?562815-Excessive-Economic-Crisis-Events-from-Prussia&

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yellow ribbon
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Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:55 am

maybe a random effect, but after i annexed nearly all land from the tribes in the West, US tribes raid and pillage their way even down to St. Louis...

frontier i would understand but in the 1860s in deep interior national regions???

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yellow ribbon
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Thu Oct 06, 2011 5:29 pm

as i already reported there is a dramatical loss of cohesion and menpower after the ACW started while moving and even without any action and in the MBT.

and it does appear that trade fleets in MBT do not draw replacements for upgrades (maybe only scripted units)

i just remember a further point, originally solved in earlier patches:

Fleets (gunboats) from St. Louis are deported to NY again, as soon ACW event triggers.

At the same time all Union troops between the Rockies and the Mississippi are deported to St. Louis despite cities are closer. (Tuscon, Denver)
My whole West is wide open.

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Sir Garnet
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Domestic Demand Reduction in Crisis

Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:56 am

Even a game economy is a complex web of cause and effect. There are some changes where the effect should be fairly straightforward . One is Yellow Ribbon's suggestion that the portion of domestic market demand the player can satisfy should be reduced with an adjustment during an Economic Crisis, starting with the initial turn and possibly worsening for a while and then starting to taper off after some months (though a simple on/off is OK for me as well).

I think it's a good change even on a standalone basis. Economic activity is lowered and the flow of private capital from the underlying economy to buy products is reduced. People are likely to be unhappier because their aspirations for products are unchanged but their means are limited so they can't buy up to the maximum amount. This means less ability to create contentment. My thought is that the percentage reduction should tend to be larger for more "advanced" economies, but that is a detail.

deoved
Corporal
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Fri Oct 07, 2011 6:34 am

Maybe inflation should lower income and not the prices? 20% inflation 20% less income, huge economies will suffer more than small ones. It can hit player more than inconsequential price increase. ?

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Sir Garnet
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Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:21 am

Cyclical fluctuations in individual prices and the price level were important but rapid. They are awkward to reflect in game, and also not much fun for the player. The initial implementation of inflation added flavor with a simple abstraction. I'm trending toward the view that it may have gotten out of hand.

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yellow ribbon
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Fri Oct 07, 2011 10:02 am

exactly,

the bonus/malus system is good designed,
the 5-structures rule makes it spicy
and even the normal inflation rule coming from shortage of capital is, lets say at least acceptable for a short run solution.

but to build the economic crisis system around this has caused situations and unbalance beyond all reason
some are even nearly without effect for reasons i explained numberless times, if they wouldnt mount numbers due to the selfsustaining effect of the crisis (independent WHERE this comes from, its there!).

i consider it as short circuit, striving to find a as simple solution as fast as possible.

however, as i mentioned to Sir Garnet, the balanced effects for contentment and peoples militancy are given from the existing system and might be kept on.
effects for the economy are merely temporary multiplicative numbers for world trade volume and domestic sold goods. at least once would understand the algorithm in place for the domestic demand.

for most of the nations the values even exist as historical numbers for at least SEVEN international Panics and plenty of national problems which could then be added on piecemeal base whenever there is spare time or by mods.

some information i have given already in past to different interested stakeholder.

**********************

but i saw there is a advising thread about similar issues at Paradox. whoever reads it should consider that input/output was already altered and ROI manipulated, and the devs still do it for some structures.

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/showthread.php?563587-Brainstorming-How-to-improve-the-gameplay-mechanics-of-PoN

the trade system is under constant improvement, who would claim now the shortage on coal and the flood of steel, shall remember the flood of agricultural goods and some resources shortly before.

with patch Oscar i played the resource rich USA and shut down heavy industry. whole world market and stock of the rest of the world was NOT ENOUGH to substitute my own production for about EIGHT months. after that i had to produce either mechanical parts or steel domestically.

thus its only a matter of shortage of coal that has maybe been solved as i understood.
and also the lack of capital in some economies to buy immediately the final products on the market.

so there is a flood of offers, but not an overcapacity of total productions compared to ever increasing demand.

there is also no lack o structures needing steel, its historical. as soon you depend on import only for the lack of coal, my stock of 800 units steel went nearly completely into RR and ships

and the fluctuating prices are there, always was....
there are even some silly price jumps from below 10 up to more than 20.
just most people cant see it for selling goods domestically (due to shortage of resources and thus production) and on the other hand huge supply of industrial goods showing nearly no price fluctuation due to the all-in offers

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yellow ribbon
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Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:34 am

demand, supply, techs... or the effects of a interactive web of them:

a little added information for the where-are-the-resources-discussion.

as most of you know, there are problems that heavy industry is developing fast and thus a lack of coal exist for most nations in the 1850s.

ten years later it turns somewhat around for a while.

as described above the stocks are not as high as the offers would suggest and no one will be able to rely on imports.

at the same time the early 1860s gives you only:

over 650 units coal

about 17 units of mechanical parts

about 150 units of steel

...however, does someone need 300 chemicals in the market

truly, its merely strategy for medium sized economies and being a toy for the minors... i like it :indien:

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yellow ribbon
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Tue Oct 11, 2011 1:51 pm

hum... ok, during ACW (GC) the Sioux decided to revolt...

unfortunately they do it in

SCIOTO VALLEY, OHIO

WESTERN IOWA, IOWA

both national regions

and in Platte Bassin, colonial region...

oh... THEY CAPTURE MY STRUCTURES !!! even in a city!

:mdr:

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yellow ribbon
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Tue Oct 11, 2011 4:04 pm

Minnesota is already a national region for two years now,but messages indicate that i am gaining SOI, starting with ONE... (involvement in the colonial area-message)

EDIT:

i killed 1000 Sioux in SCIOTO...

but they destroyed all structures while rooting. then i get battle report that i killed all of them...

if they come to Washington i will be certain that they have some british relatives, have they?

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yellow ribbon
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Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:38 am

As you know somehow AI is reluctant to negotiate peace after the crimean war.

in my game UK and Russia still fight in 1863.

even worse, it does appear Britain starts to have [color="Red"]one partial mobilization decree after the next.[/color]

i got it in the log for december 1862, then next end january 1863...

hope its only the old bug, you had fixed before.

deoved
Corporal
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Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:37 pm

even worse, it does appear Britain starts to have one partial mobilization decree after the next.


I looked in the events files. And find string in mobilization event referencing to: "_partialMobilizationTracker".
But original event named: "_PartialMobilizationTracker".
If AGE's script language is case sensitive to variable names, then there is bug.

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yellow ribbon
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Thu Oct 13, 2011 10:59 pm

hello deoved,

the problem mentioned is easy to delete, and is a "old" bug solved in a prior patch weeks ago.
the devs have already acknowledged the report...

just would be a pity if we got 1.02 with this old bug. especially if there is truly another bug with AI and the peace treaty. ;)

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yellow ribbon
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Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:28 pm

the Emancipation Proclamation (red message event) triggers more than once.

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PhilThib
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Location: Meylan (France)

Fri Oct 14, 2011 7:07 am

When, which scenario (ACW DLC?)
Image

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yellow ribbon
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Fri Oct 14, 2011 9:29 am

good morning PhilThib,

its the normal 1850 GC US

first it was in January 1863, then again in mid 1863

both times same window, same text, same red message....

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PhilThib
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Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:36 pm

OK, I see the problem...there was a test forgotten...Tell me, did the ACW occur or not in your game?
Image

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yellow ribbon
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Fri Oct 14, 2011 5:53 pm

evening PhilThib,

yeah, i got normal chain:

John Brown event in 1859

and then started in one test in December 1859, in a other run in early 1860, in a other run mid 1860...

could end the war in October 1863 with defensive action and sieges. 103K own losses, over 310K prisoners from the CSA :D

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yellow ribbon
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Fri Oct 14, 2011 8:15 pm

so, some spare minutes:

as far i can say the old bug with the ships in MBT is back either.

SCRIPTED merchant fleets dont get replacements.

424 points are demanded for three years now, i have 5 replacement units in F3 for three months now.

nothing happens!

EDIT:

moving them to national harbors works for repairing, but still they dont upgrade within few turns.

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yellow ribbon
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Sat Oct 15, 2011 9:09 am

there is a minor glitch in RR building.

either scripted or build from the Confederate States there are RRs after the GC ACW in the region around the Mississippi.

Florida Parishes, Missi. Gulf coast etc

RRs are shown in the structures list and obviously were build and finished.

due to this i cannot build new RR there, and i cannot delete the existing RR.

But the transport level is only 60% and the tooltip shows "major road"
Attachments
building problem.jpg
building problem 2.jpg

deoved
Corporal
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Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:58 pm

moving them to national harbors works for repairing, but still they dont upgrade within few turns


I have not seen HQ and Signal Regiments upgrading to new models also.

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