Sustainable Inflation?

[enalut]

Is there any consensus on what level of Inflation is sustainable? Is it different for the Union and Confeds?

So far I have been very hesitant to do anything to incur inflation, as I expect it will quickly become disasterous for the long term war economy (as it did in the Confederacy IRL). However, I realize that it is necessary to incur some inflation to avoid being steamrolled, especially in the very early stages.


IRL as I recall, the Union suffered about 70% inflation throught the war, while the South saw soemthign like 1000%, albeit this was the result of teh loss of confidence in their non legal tender script, and not necessarily a completely accurate represntation of the "real" inflation rate.

So my question is how much inflation is tolerable? I expect it changes dependign on the progress of the game (as in higher inflation is less tolerabe, but more necessary in the eearly stages of the war)?

How much inflation is sustainable form the first 10 rounds and then how much can an economy endure in subsequent years?

[Jabberwock]

It varies by side played, and by style/strategy. The Confederates pay 1NM for each time they print money, and the Union pays 2NM.; So the Rebs can definitely afford more, but they also need to keep their high NMC early. I'm not sure what the algorithm is for NM recovery/loss. I think it is generally +1/turn if under 100, -1/turn if over 100.

I use $ to try to maximise my manpower options, since that is my limiting factor later in the game. 105 NM is a critical number, so I won't use an option that pushes me lower than 105. If I'm already lower than that, I don't worry about it.

My early-game routine is generally:

1. Exceptional taxes
2. 8% Bonds
3. Print money

I try to save using them for as long as possible (the longer you wait, the more they're worth). Generally my use coincides with mobilization and volunteer bounties.

[Brochgale]

I am living comfortably with 16% inflation as CSA in my latest game. It is Nov62 and I do not forsee any need to increase inflation anymore in early63. I expect my summer offensive of 63 to win game on hard settings as I have already destroyed the AoP of Feds and I am holding my own in west. I dont see any need to provide anything more than replacements for lossses from this moment on in my latest game.

[Banks6060]

As the USA, you really don't need to concern yourself with inflation at all IMHO. You won't be that far in the hole. Most likely, you'll be making 200+ cash every turn anyway, so printing money will more than likely be a rarity as the Union player.

However as the CSA, you've really gotta keep a tight budget. I've learned that staying anywhere between 20 and 45% is usually still ok. 50% or more is where you start paying alot more for all of your units than you probably need to. Much like Jabber said. With money, it's usually best to wait as long as you can before you use any of them....in order to rack up the most amount of VP's...meaning more money.

I haven't quite gotten it down to a science yet. But if you keep a really tight eye on your budget as the CSA, you'll manage, even with 40% inflation.

[Coregonas]

Inflation, in my opinion, is a value to be totally ignored in having a decision here. Some big (approx) numbers, as CSA:

You can bring on average 50 $ a turn for around 100 turns that is 5.000 $
At 100% inflation, those 5.000 % are effective 2.500 $.

But to achive 100% inflation, you must click 25! times Print money.

Once your VP gets around 800 (this can be achieved early 62), the formula for printing money gets "plain", and you get around 650-750$ for printing.
25 times 700 $ -> 17.500 $ ever all of them half valued could make for:

a minimum 8.750 $ EXTRA.

Just the problem is: Holding NM above 105.

Also, take into account there is some chance your inflation drops a bit 1%. Not sure but it is a chance equal to the current inflation.

[Brochgale]

I find that the amount of conscript points available to me as CSA is actually acting as a control on my inflation. I do have habit of buying art cheap though and trying to raise my conscript infantry and militia to front line infantry - I find that it is conscript points that are the controlling factor on inflation with the present game strategy that I am playing with.

[Gray_Lensman]

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[Brochgale]

If you wouldn't mind, please explain in more detail how conscript points act as a control on inflation, as I fail to see the relationship from the above reply.

I can only use mobilisations and volunteer calls so often. It gives me a twice yearly influx of consciption points. Once those points are spent on replacements and reinforcements there is no point in raising further cash. Raising cash only adds un - necessarily to inlation and to pointlessly deplete my VPs and NM values.
I have found in my latest game that I have plenty of cash and WS to play with but I am always short of conscript points. In my latest game I get to end of 62 and find that I call for volunteers and mobilisation and and have spent those points without having to call for any further cash. I am presently happy with my present state of Army and Naval forces and I have plenty of cash and WS but not the conscript points till next call in June 63 to do anything more than fill out replacement calls or maybe build the odd Ironclad, which only costs 1 conscript point.
Thus my infaltion is controlled at 16%. I think that reasonable considering what happenned to inflation in actual war to CSA.
I hope answer clarifies and answers question.

[Gray_Lensman]

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[Brochgale]

So it's not a direct effect, it's just an indirect effect due to not needing to raise the money. I was reading into your statement more than necessary.

Correct! No need to raise the money as I dont have the conscript points to spend.

[Coregonas]

I suspect Brochgale real limitation is not CONSCRIPTION, but WAR SUPPLY (as is for me).

If a lot of WS could be in his hands.... He would not limitate into printing some money.

He could invest all that MONEY he doesnt want to spend into CHEAP/FREE conscription items:

1.- Artillery
2.- Ships
3.- Railroad / Riverine to 3/3 or more!
4.- Industry (to earn more WS and some food of course)
5.- All those costly support units

[Brochgale]

I suspect Brochgale real limitation is not CONSCRIPTION, but WAR SUPPLY (as is for me).

If a lot of WS could be in his hands.... He would not limitate into printing some money.

He could invest all that MONEY he doesnt want to spend into CHEAP/FREE conscription items:

1.- Artillery
2.- Ships
3.- Railroad / Riverine to 3/3 or more!
4.- Industry (to earn more WS and some food of course)
5.- All those costly support units

No trouble with WS in winter of 62 early 63 I have plenty of them and I have expanded my RR enough to move MY 2 main armies around as much as I want.

My army of NVA with 3 corps of 120,000 at full compliment and my Army of Tennessee with 70.000 at full compliment, plus 2 smaller armies Army of Miss with 15,000 men and AoP in reserve with another 15,000. I have sustained 180,000 casualties up to dec 62. That is where my Conscript points have gone?

I have also expended WS on expanding industry. The only thing I am short on is Conscript points and any points I get from turn to turn iare going in replacements every turn. In one winter turn I had 4 epidimics - over another 4 turns I had another 4 epidemics and the winter is nowhere near over yet

I have had no shortage of WS since winter of 61 and that is when I first invest in Industry as I hold my armies to City to shelter what was a brutal winter.

All of my Corps and Divisions are supplied with Wagon Trains and I have built depots in Citys I find it convenient to build depots and fortified those locations as well

I have inflicted over 300,000 casualties on Feds

[Banks6060]

Where inflation catches up with you is in the increased cost to purchase everything....it's not quite as noticable. But if you get too high...things start to cost significantly more.

[GShock]

Probably the penalty on NM for paper money printing is too little...one would expect a total disaster in the economy which comes back on the loyalty of the citizens who start to starve month after month when their money is not enough anymore. It's not just the problem that u need 25 times the paper money printing to get to the 100% inflation...not a problem either to handle lack of money for CSA when the issue is "without manpower what do i do with this money? No need to print". It's a problem of NM alone in the game but since NM is so important something could be done here.

One thing i didn't get is the bonds option. By issuing bonds, the state gets indebted with the citizens but there's no creation of money, there's no more money than there was before issuing them so i don't understand why this raises the inflation...whatever the interest rate is, the state would raise taxes and take back that money to pay the issuing of bonds, so it's just money that turns from hands to hands but not printing money not backed by gold...so question is: Why does inflation rise with bonds?

Am i missing something here?

[Brochgale]

I believe the CSA issued Cotton Bonds on the Amsterdam Stock market as well but Bonds collapsed after Atlantas fall. The problem for the CSA throughout the War was collecting taxes to finance War - I believe that only 8.2% of taxes ever got collected. So CSA had to find other ways to finance war. The manpwer problem was not its only problem?
Whatever device they used to finance war was ultimately inflationary. Inflation that accelerated after Gettysburg in particular.

[FM WarB]

No trouble with WS in winter of 62 early 63 I have plenty of them and I have expanded my RR enough to move MY 2 main armies around as much as I want.

My army of NVA with 3 corps of 120,000 at full compliment and my Army of Tennessee with 70.000 at full compliment, plus 2 smaller armies Army of Miss with 15,000 men and AoP in reserve with another 15,000. I have sustained 180,000 casualties up to dec 62. That is where my Conscript points have gone?

You have 400,000 troops, not counting garrisons and you wonder why you don/t have alot of Conscript points in the winter of 1862? You are correct not to be conserned about inflation, with an ahistorically large army like that.

[Brochgale]

You have 400,000 troops, not counting garrisons and you wonder why you don/t have alot of Conscript points in the winter of 1862? You are correct not to be conserned about inflation, with an ahistorically large army like that.

A follow up june/july 63 game time

I have inflicted over 320,000 casualties on Feds and have another 50,000 as POWS.

All the time - I wonder where Grant is and where is he coming. I still see large Fed forces on map that dont seem to be moving or doing anything. My inflation is now stablised at 20% and it will not go higher than that. I AM OF OPINION Though THAT i HAVE EFFECTIVELY DESTROYED THE FED ARMIES as real military threats by june of 63? I dont focus on city objectives - I focus on destroying Fed Armies! The city objectives will come easier now?

All conscript point are used to fill out replacements - no more recruiting is getting done and that is june63 on my latest game.

Game on hard settings - I calculate I will win it before end of 63. Unless AI does something I dont expect.

I did not get luxury of having such a large Army in game against my nephew - he did not wait for me to have such forces but then it was a game where he avoided any battle of medium to large scale initially and I could not get my promotable division commanders to Corp command level. By the time he was engaging in large scale battles I did not have the troops to form Corps of any effectiveness!

[Coregonas]

I find that the amount of conscript points available to me as CSA is actually acting as a control on my inflation. I do have habit of buying art cheap though and trying to raise my conscript infantry and militia to front line infantry - I find that it is conscript points that are the controlling factor on inflation with the present game strategy that I am playing with.

This is right partially. If you can afford printing more, you can change the type of troops to build.

You can build troops "cheap" "medium" or "extremely costly". I value these depending on the RATIO of MONEY cost versus CONSCRIPTION cost.

Cheap troops are infantry /cavalry RATIO 1-1 aprox

Medium cost are artillery/brigs - RATIO 8-1 aprox

Costly are support / warships RATIO 24-1 aprox

It is clear than the limit is CONSCRIPTION, however, if you can afford to get extra money, you can afford to build a lot of "Costly Troops", so a lot of ELEMENTS.

With the same conscription cost, you can build just 1 regular infantry element, but 5 Artillery elements instead.

Having unending money & WS----> I´d prefer to build 40 infantry & 20 artillery (4 non perfect divisions 10 infantry & 5 artillery) than 42 infantry & 10 artillery. (3 near perfect divisions 13 infantry & 3 artillery and an extra brigade size 4)..

Seems best for me 60 elements versus 52.

[rubisco]

As a follow-up question, if the size of the CSA army is ultimately limited by the number of conscripts and (to a lesser extent) by inflation, does that mean that a Union naval blockade is completely pointless?

[Gray_Lensman]

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[rubisco]

Maybe at the moment it's not as effective, however, eventually I've been assigned by Pocus to reduce the overall War Supplies available to both sides. Once this is done, the Union naval blockade will assume more importance.

That's good to know - thanks.

[Captain]

I just finished a pbem game as the CSA. I lost Richmond in OCT62 and it was all over.

My main problem seemed to be simply lack of troops !

I had some 1000 manpower points and 330 war equipment points saved up but simply no cash. Of course I didn't print money as I was afraid of the spiralling unit cost and long term morale effects.

It seems I am totally wrong as the discussion here seems to think anything under 20% inflation is negligable.

So in summary let me get this right fellas. The south MUST print money? So it is not a question of "if" but "when" ?

[Aphrodite Mae]

Hey, I've got two questions. I read in some book somewhere that the union had a 1.4 production ratio to that of the south. Is that right?

Secondly, does AACW accurately model the historical real world production and economic capabilities of the Union? Or have sacrifices been made in realism? (Like for playability issues and stuff like that.)

Thanks.
Havely

[Coregonas]

Seems to me average production intends to be reallistic (around 1,5-2 to 1)... It is of course somewhat difficult to exactly model any real situation.

Good Spending / investing / gaming (and some luck) can somewhat help both sides into changing the ratio showed.


And...YES. SOUTH MUST PRINT.

IGNORE INFLATION FOR YOUR DECISIONS, THINK BEST IN TERMS OF NATIONAL MORALE.

The optimal moment for Printing is when your VICTORY POINTS is the MAXIMUM.

The Real moment for printing is as much as you need it without hitting too much your National Morale. Avoid lowering it before 105. If level 105 is too hard to hold, you can drop up to level 95. Best leave some security points away from those levels.

[Coregonas]

Why does inflation rise with bonds?

My point of view: The Government is BUYING a lot of things with this money. That also ups inflation.

(a person/organization buying bonds is an "invester", not a "money spender", so his money would be "bored" in some point without being used for paying anything).

[Captain]

Coregonas thanks !
It was frustrating that even having good tactical positions and a reasonable strategic angle my southern armies were just massively outnumbered.Whilst doing well politically and morale wise without troops it was all a moot point.
You know things are bad when your opponent send you emails asking where is the southern army?

So it seems I need to follow that charming role model Jim Fisk. Wasn't he the rail baron (and I am paraphrasing only) when someone tried to buy out his rail company said, " I ain't ever gonna lose this railroad as long as this printing press don't break down!" He simply printed more shares to prevent losing control of the company.

[tagwyn]

Follow the example of our present government!! $800,000,000 Bailout! LOL apy:

[Gray_Lensman]

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[Captain]

Come the revolution comrades

[Brochgale]

Come the revolution comrades

Those darn Yankee bankers - at it again?