hello conch,
you originally asked about the logic of the situation, thats the reason for my long explanation!
of course, if a the CB mentioned in the SCRIPTED situation / or by def. treaty there should be a CB forged automatically. AI should to be able to attack you due to a CB either, if it did not, there was a reason.
getting the CB however does not mean to be able to DOW in every case
if a additional (red) text is missing in the log, its another question.
and never forget, most decisions in PON operate on base of probabilities.
As i wrote above, even the modified support action, does not ensure a possible CB/DOW for certainty
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Again,
1.) CB is independent of war, it does not consequently mean that you can DOW and is used in game a kind of "hot" diplomatic crisis indicator. worse than bad relations.
2.) CB will be overruled by any positive treaty.
2b) possibly you dont get additional messages in every case informing you about diplomatic actions
3.) to forge a CB you need certain level of imperialism, if dont have it you dont have the decision in diplomatic ledger.
1850s USA get a CB against the Japanese by event, but cannot even start a war, unless Scott is president (seldom, had him once in 7 months)
4.) Possibility to DOW is bound to high level of imperialism/aggressiveness and no existing treaty, as Sagji mentioned
[color="Red"]So, again. If you have the message and there should be one, it does not consequently mean that you could exploit is.Nor that you see it[/color]
if you have a treaty of shared defense it does neither consequently mean that you can attack the enemy of your friend.
otherwise i guess the EVENT character of the game would totally run out of order.
but as beuckelssen said, if you are experienced it is easy to get the AI that unfriendly that they attack you without preparing for it and you can take over momentum...
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everyone agrees, a lot of modding or volunteers is needed for PON, but if P.X carries on to sell it for free it will never get a break even and the developer will be bound to work on other projects, certainly not being allowed to carry on with PON unless ready with other work...

...not paid by AGEOD.
however, prone to throw them into disarray.
PS:
‘Everything is very simple in War, but the simplest thing is difficult. These difficulties accumulate and produce a friction which no man can imagine exactly who has not seen War . . . in War, through the influence of an infinity of petty circumstances, which cannot properly be described on paper, things disappoint us, and we fall short of the mark.‘
Clausewitz