Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:11 pm
SUMMER 1873
*Breaking News and Making News Since 1863*
JAPANESE REJOICE IN VICTORY: Despite low National Morale, the Japanese people are proud of victory against "the two most powerful European empires" after their long stubborn struggle with the Russian and German Empires. So fierce was the costly fighting on Sakhalin that it was said that Japan's Imperial Guards would need change of name to the Imperial Guard because they were fighting to the last man. The armed forces and nation are viewed as having gained great honor through the war and some strategic advantage, although the effects on the map appear minor.
Although Japan has receded from the attention of the world, the intense war on land and sea and rapidly increasing Japanese armed forces have changed global perceptions and earned respect for Japan as a rising power, someday possibly a Great Power. A rising power creates the danger of instability and conflict - and it remains to be seen what course Japan may take, constrained by a ring of Western powers as well as China. There is little virgin territory for imperial colonization, and aloof Japan has shown little interest in developing global diplomatic relations, but the industrious Japanese may choose economic imperialism instead.
MUSLIM ALLIES PLOT DIFFERENT COURSES: Persians and Egyptians not long ago joined in alliance with Turks to form a united Muslim force that acquitted itself well in the Holy Cities War. No sooner did that near its end than the Khedive declared war against the German Empire and the Sultan followed by declaring war in support of the German Empire. Will they fight each other? Highly unlikely, but in disunity there is weakness. In the face of the new Franco-German War, the Persians appear to be focusing inward to avoid involvement in the conflict.
ITALY'S SHREWD STRATEGY: Italian diplomacy in recent years has been very selective in its choice of friends and the opposite in its choice of wars, having repeatedly engaged in struggles that due to the actions and decisions of others failed to improve the Italian position. Italy's entry into alliances with both the French Republic and the German Empire appeared to be a dubious move but in fact has proven a masterly stroke. Neither ally needs Italy to fight on its side in a war, but neither wants it as an enemy. A simple passive alliance role gives Italy the benefit of strong deterrence against a declaration of war by any other power, thus enabling Italy to single out its targets selectively. First of these is Egypt, whose hasty declaration of war on the German Empire was unexpected to friend and foe alike and has left it isolated with strong German forces close by and now the prime target of what is said proudly by Romans to be a new Roman Empire. Not all are enthused by this prospect - Italy is a major source of emigration to the New World. Although these emigrants are seen as
disloyal by the more jingoist Italians, they maintain a strong interest in their native country which has a political effect on their new homelands.
Italy also declared against the Russian Empire to maintain its prestige. As there are no obvious points of contact, its intention of a quick peace seems likely to be satisfied. We can expect further Italian expansionism using the leverage of a uniquely Italian alliance strategy.
AMID INSTABILITY, SPANISH SWITCH SIDES: Federalist republican President Francisco Pi y Margall proved unable to stand firm against the strong currents of opposing republican, federalist, anarchist, socialist and other political forces in Spain and in little more than a month in power was rejected as illegitimate by major factions amid a wave of insurrectionism. President Nicolas Salmeron has been chosen to replace him as leader of the Cortes and chief executive of the government and will need to rely on sending in troops to establish domestic order. His shaky government also appears to have chosen a quick and successful victory over France as his way of satisfying the military, whose shadow is always present over the Cortes, and uniting a divided country by fighting against a foreign foe. Although France is a republic rather than a monarchy, while the German Empire is absolutist, the Spanish republicans seem to be attempting to bolster their position by opposing former friends of Spain under King Amadeo's liberal monarchy. The ability of the German Empire to offer territorial advantages in North Africa may also be a consideration. How active will Spain be on the Pyrenees? Can it afford to prosecute the war actively and risk defeat? Can it afford not to show the strength of the Republic to the people?
In addition to engaging against France, Spain has dramatically cut back its international trade activity and diplomatic activity abroad. Peaceful Iberia is unsettled by word that the Spanish government has apparently suspended diplomatic interaction with the Portuguese-speaking liberal monarchies of Portugal and Brazil. Whether Spain intends to break relations and repudiate its treaty obligations with Portugal and understandings with Brazil remains unclear because Madrid has been silent.
The government is preoccupied with getting into foreign wars and maintaining domestic order. Indeed, with the great political turbulence in Spain this year, we could easily see a very different government in Madrid within the next 6 or 12 months - anything from a revolutionary commune to a military junta or even restored monarchy. Any of these could meet large-scale opposition in the provinces.
*Daring Speculation often falls short of the extraordinary Truth*
(Budgetary issues during the global depression have limited OSS publications for some time.)