Seems the AI doesn't take into account some of the effects of decisions when choosing them. Had the South's morale down to 34 in late August 1863 and a battle during turn resolution dropped it slightly (the battle raised my NM by one) but it had dropped to 23 for the Confederacy (F9 screen) resulting in a victory for my Union. I saved, loaded the save as the Rebs and saw that they'd chosen a Foreign Intervention decision that dropped it by 10... Oops, bad choice AI
