I'm now about ready to jump into my 1st real Scenario/Campaign game. I know this is not going to be an easy game but that's why I bought it. I went with my highest interest level and that's the Civil War. I was born a Yankee but now live in the South, so I became even more intrigued in this time period living close to Atlanta and historical CW sites.
My question is regarding game play settings. I am very intrigued in learning more about the history of the Civil War but I also want some direct input into outcomes since this is technically a game that I will be spending time learning and playing.
I want realistic game play rules in place but I also want to have a chance to "win", regardless of which side I play on, assuming I play the game correctly and use proper strategy. What puts me and the AI on "equal ground?
I'm a newbie so you're probably thinking "why on earth is this guy already asking this stuff before he has even moved a single unit?"
That's just my wonderful A.D.D. personality, where I feel happy that I am doing things "the right way, or in the right order". I HAVE to have my game play settings"perfect", before I start my campaigns.

Is this game heavily-scripted, in that no matter what I do "X" is going to happen, or "Y" General is going to lose this battle? I actually love XCOM-type randomness in battles..meaning even though there is a 90% chance to hit, sometimes things don't hit and all hell breaks loose afterwards. I'm okay with things not going my way (which is what I chose the AEGOD "WEGO" type system. I like that I'm not sure how things are going to end up!
I'm not necessarily asking for the easiest settings, where I can just roll troops around aimlessly and crush them but maybe newcomer-friendly settings where I can say "I took the time to plan a good strategy, executed it properly and it worked". I don't 100% want the AI to say "sorry, CSA is not going to win here, no matter what you do", due to scripting but I also understand that I cant just roll up to DC and drop Nukes (aka Civilization). lol
TL;DR- What do you guys recommend for "newbs" that are okay with learning the nuances of the game but not become extremely overwhelming? AI Activation, aggressiveness, supply, etc. The settings are kind of confusing for a newb I don't get yet how it effects my campaigns.
Thanks in advance!