Artillery replacments

[ArmChairGeneral]

I am not sure that I accept your interpretation of that line for a couple of reasons. First, the line contradicts the much more detailed explanations of the relationship between chits and number of hits replaced that is given in other places. Second, the rest of the page makes several interpretive statements that are clearly wrong, throwing into question the author's deeper understanding of the mechanic (not the numbers themselves, most of those are from the games files). Rangers, infantry and militia do NOT draw from the same replacement types, for example. It strikes me that the line is pretty handwavey, and does not actually preclude that (1/# of total hits in the element) probability of exhaustion mechanism (the conventional wisdom) as being the underlying explanation for the number of hits being handled at the engine level and unknown to the player.

But even if we accept that line as word-for-word correct, then the point I am making is even stronger! If there is a fixed number of hits supplied by a chit then it is ALWAYS the case that a hit assigned to a loser (again, where a loser is one of the partial-strength Heavies the CSA starts with) wastes the cost of purchasing that hit, and the probabilistic inequality argument that I made is unnecessary to reach the same ultimate conclusion. The only difference between accepting the line at face value or not is whether the waste of resources is a fixed amount or a variable amount. In one case the hit is definitely wasted, in the other the hit is only possibly wasted, but in either case any hits you pay for that go to losers are disadvantageous.

Now, the extent to which they get assigned to losers in the first place is an entirely separate mechanic from the number of hits a chit represents, and is unaffected by the interpretation of the line in question. We have no numbers to assign to the various weights, and I am going by experience but without hard data when I assert that there is a non-negligible chance that losers get chosen. Again, the Wiki page Fox references is contradictory on this question. On the one hand it says the selection is random weighted but then goes on to describe a process that is not random weighting at all. I tend to think that element selection IS random weighted since the AGE engine uses random weighting as the go-to mechanic when it needs to select a unit or elements for whatever reason during combat (Frontage selection is random weighted, targeting and stack selection is random weighted, etc.). It isn't out of the question that element selection for assigning replacements uses the mechanic described on this page, but that would be inconsistent with how the engine selects elements or units for other applications (i.e. random weighting).

Whichever is the correct process, however, neither would preclude losers from getting hits. Since the CSA has a lot of losers to choose from when assigning Heavy replacement hits, the CSA suffers a penalty (of indeterminate and possibly inconsequential size) when replacing Heavy artillery.

[Gray Fox]

20lbers require heavy artillery replacements.

Apparently yes and no. Union 20 lbers require heavy artillery replacements. CSA 20's, and Columbiads, do not. This is a pic from the models folder. I outlined in red the Union and CSA 20's and Columbiads.

[ATTACH]37840[/ATTACH]

Union Rodman's are medium guns though, so maybe that is worth exploring as a replacement for Union 20's.

P.S. This is the models folder from the CW2 database as of October 14, 2014 at this link:

http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?5358-Official-Files-for-modding

[W.Barksdale]

Try it in game rather than just looking at whatever files you are looking at. 20lbers require heavy replacements as CSA. Whether this is WAD I don't know but it doesn't change the fact that they need heavy replacements.

[Cardinal Ape]

About chit replacements, there definitely is a random factor in whether or not they get consumed. Every time the chit would be consumed it makes a percentage roll to see if it is actually consumed (when replacing hits, not for replacing full elements.) As far as I remember it is only a 10% chance that the chit will be consumed. If it was a finite number with no randomness then the Union would have to purchase over 50 infantry replacements to bring the starting army in Alexandria up to full strength.

When building artillery both factions use CMN models, the USA uses the one with 'exp', the CSA uses the ones without.

[W.Barksdale]

About chit replacements, there definitely is a random factor in whether or not they get consumed. Every time the chit would be consumed it makes a percentage roll to see if it is actually consumed (when replacing hits, not for replacing full elements.) As far as I remember it is only a 10% chance that the chit will be consumed. If it was a finite number with no randomness then the Union would have to purchase over 50 infantry replacements to bring the starting army in Alexandria up to full strength.

This seems like it's true. If I remember correctly this is how it worked in aacw.

When building artillery both factions use CMN models, the USA uses the one with 'exp', the CSA uses the ones without.

That explains it.

[Gray Fox]

A .jpg is worth a kilobyte of text. In the Units folder, the CSA artillery do use the CMN alias model, as the good Cardinal stated:

[ATTACH]37851[/ATTACH]

Now if we can find absolute proof that a random factor exists in replacement chit use, then we could add that to the list of the known as well.

P.S. This is a line from the AACW Wiki:

"You will need to have replacements of the appropriate type available in your pool to recover hits. The number of replacements used up in the process depends on the number of hits recovered and a random factor."

Now we add the pertinent quote from the AGEODWiki...

"Replacement chits that are used to replace lost strength points are removed from the Replacement Pool when the last of their strength points is consumed. Players do not have a means of knowing how many strength points are remaining in individual replacement chits. This is handled internally by the game engine. Replacement chits used to provide entire battalion-sized elements are removed from the Replacement Pool immediately."

If both statements should be true, then a chit with X number of hits may provide (X hits minus the random number) and be used up.

[Captain_Orso]

The chits are defined under Game Data somewhere, I don't remember where ATM. IIRC there is a value (X) defined in each, and used in the formula: "1/X", which is the chance of chit expiring during each use to replace a hit on an element. Value X is not necessarily exactly equal to the number of hits an element of a specific type has.

In AACW it chits used to last twice as long, but that got 'fixed' in CW2 by general consensus.

I don't recall where I learned how chits work. Partly from old, old AACW forum threads, and partly from questions of mine Pocus has answered.

[Gray Fox]

Gentlemen, are we going to answer forum questions with myth or with fact? What do we know and why do we know it? Are the Wikis worthless?

[minipol]

For the CSA having 20 lbers draw replacements from the heavy artillery pool could have a great impact. Since I wasn't sure, I preferred 12 lbers and they are also great on defense.

[Captain_Orso]

Gentlemen, are we going to answer forum questions with myth or with fact? What do we know and why do we know it? Are the Wikis worthless?

Gray, I'm PM you later. I don't have anymore time at the moment.

[Highlandcharge]

Hi guys, when I was reading this thread a thought occurred to me, could the union drawing drawing 20lb replacements from med arty and the rebels drawing from heavy replacements be WAD?

Would this not better reflect the higher difficulty the Confederates would have in replacing these cannon compared tithe Union?

[W.Barksdale]

When building artillery both factions use CMN models, the USA uses the one with 'exp', the CSA uses the ones without.

As above, both factions use heavy artillery chits as replacements for 20lbers.

[Highlandcharge]

OK my mistake, its a confusing thread

[W.Barksdale]

This is from an old thread I started for aacw. I'm trying to find one from Pocus or PhilThib but this one is from Rafiki. Rereading the thread it is how I understood replacement chits to work and the explanation seems to agree with observations I've made in ACW2.

Long story short. If replacing an entire element the replacement chit will be spent. If just topping up a depleted unit there is a "chance" that the replacement chit is spent.

Let's see if we can do a step by step on how reinforcements and replacements work

1. You receive conscript companies either from your regions or from events. These are stored in a national pool, which you can see at the top of the screen, and you can also see projected totals in various places (e.g. the replacements screen as you say).

2 You use conscript companies in two ways:

2A: Buy reinforcements (new units). This is pretty straight-forward; the units spend a variable amount of time on the map, building strength, and become available after a shorter or longer while.

2B: Buy replacement chits. These are bought and collected in separate pools for each type of element (e.g. "line infantry" or "cavalry"). By themselves, replacement chits don't do anything, nor can you use them directly, but they are needed for repairing and replacing elements.

3 Your replacement chits can be used in two ways:

3A Repairing damaged elements. Damaged elements will recover some of their strength each turn; the rate will vary based on type of element, where it is located and whether it's a Union or CSA element. There is a chance that each element replacing losses like this will spend a replacement chit, but it's not certain it will. Note that even if an element wouldn't have spent a chit while repairing itself, it still requires that there is at least one chit in the appropriate pool for any repairs to occur.

3B Replacing eliminated elements. Units that are missing elements compared to their original TO&E can recover one of them each turn. This will spend a replacement chit of the corresponding type

For some details concerning this, check out http://www.ageod.net/aacwwiki/Manual:Losses_and_replacements

I am trying to find an actual formula of the "chance" has been quoted by one of the devs.

[Cardinal Ape]

Gentlemen, are we going to answer forum questions with myth or with fact? What do we know and why do we know it? Are the Wikis worthless?

Kind of.. It is not that the AACWWiki is wrong, it is that is for a different game. It may have some valid information that carries over to CW2, but not all of it.

Both the wiki and the manual falsely state that units need to be stationary to receive replacements.


I couldn't find any numbers about replacements when I looked through the game files, nothing in the turn logs either. Only one reference to units consuming chits upon being tech upgraded. Maybe there is something to be found in the database files - I don't have those on this computer and the links are broken.

I have no facts on what the randomness of replacements is. I can only guess that there is a good amount of randomness involved, enough to make it very difficult to know exactly how many replacements to purchase.

The manual states: As a rule of thumb, one replacement element can replace exactly one lost element or be expected to replace an element’s worth of hits lost (with a chance of being consumed for each hit replaced).

My speculation: The number behind this 'chance' must be low. Assuming it is a percentile I would put it below 15%. My best guess would be either a 5 or 10% chance that a chit is consumed per hit. This would average out infantry chits to meet their 20 hits before being used up. It is also a low enough chance to explain some of the things I have seen happen in game, such as one heavy warship chit repairing over 160 hits without being consumed.

[Gray Fox]

From the search engine about replacements in AACW:

http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?11177-replacements-for-ships&highlight=aacw+replacement+chits
POCUS

"yes, the cost will be spread over the turns the ship is repaired. no discount here, in contrary of land units (where a replacement cost half what a brand new element would cost when recruited)."

http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?10795-Replacements&highlight=aacw+replacement+chits
Rafiki

"3 Your replacement chits can be used in two ways:

3A Repairing damaged elements. Damaged elements will recover some of their strength each turn; the rate will vary based on type of element, where it is located and whether it's a Union or CSA element. There is a chance that each element replacing losses like this will spend a replacement chit, but it's not certain it will. Note that even if an element wouldn't have spent a chit while repairing itself, it still requires that there is at least one chit in the appropriate pool for any repairs to occur.

3B Replacing eliminated elements. Units that are missing elements compared to their original TO&E can recover one of them each turn. This will spend a replacement chit of the corresponding type

For some details concerning this, check out http://www.ageod.net/aacwwiki/Manual...d_replacements "

"The number of replacements used up in the process depends on the number of hits recovered and a random factor."

From the manual for CW2:

"As a rule of thumb, one replacement element can replace exactly one lost element or be expected to replace an element's worth of hits lost (with a chance of being consumed for each hit replaced)."

I'm not reading that an X% chance exists for a chit to be used up every time a hit is removed. The replacements used to contain twice the number of hits as a real unit, but no more. One poster dev mentioned that a chit had a 50% chance of being used up in AACW (because it had twice the number of hits). Then someone else posted that it was closer to 10%. Somewhere over the years this became canon.

A replacement with one hit or 20 hits is represented by the same icon in the pool. The player can't tell how many hits are remaining. Let's say it's only 1 hit. If someone needed 2 hits, but saw what looked like an entire replacement chit vanish, they might wonder what is going on? That's what "a chance of being consumed for each hit replaced" means.

[W.Barksdale]

I'm not reading that an X% chance exists for a chit to be used up every time a hit is removed.

I should have posted this before, but there is indeed a probability calculation as stated by Rafiki in this thread.

That is what several of us have been trying to tell you, that replacing losses in a given element won't necessarily spend a replacement chit; there's a given probability for it happening (the exact calculation of which I don't remember)

[Gray Fox]

From the link:

Nov 7, 2007, Gshock: "Anyway...i think none of us really knows what goes on with replacements. I believe it's the mother of all questions and i'm sure it's a top subject to wikize "

True.

So it's either magic, where Harry Potter can get endless replacements from one chit or it is a fixed formula that people have perceived as the Sun orbiting the Earth.


What do we know and why do we know it?

So Rafiki, a forum admin, reads that TheDoctorKing said the replacement chit had a 50% chance of being used up, because in AACW the chit had twice as many hits as a unit. He reads that someone else makes the quote-worthy post in 2007 that it is closer to 10% (based on that person's interpretation of the Sun rising in the east and setting in the west) and Rafiki then naturally assumes that the chance is perhaps random.

[W.Barksdale]

Believe what you will. Rafiki was a wealth of knowledge about the engine. Your quote is quite misleading as it was Gshock who was confused in the first place!

I suppose we'd need Pocus to weigh in to know 100%. I am just going by my understanding of the mechanics through 8 years of experience with the engine.

Pocus, I know you don't bother with ACW2 anymore but if you're reading this could you kindly chime in please?

[Gray Fox]

What everyone must accept after 9 years is exactly what Gshock posted all those years ago. Absolutely no one knows. If the replacement pool for a unit type simply had as many individual hits as you wanted, then you could cursor over an icon and see how many are present. Every time a hit was used, the pool would decrease by one hit and you could see the delta on a menu. This is the way the money/men/materiel icons work. However, we don't have this, so people speculate. So since 2007, you've all speculated and came to a Conventional Wisdom that is the preferred advice.

If a random chance was involved for a chit to be exhausted then you would buy a gallon of milk and perhaps pour more than a gallon from it. That just makes no sense. If the chit only used a finite number of hits plus a random number before being used up then you would buy a gallon of milk and maybe only get a quart of milk. Again, that makes no sense. A chit has a finite number of hits and each hit is used in turn until the whole chit is gone so that you buy a gallon of milk and that's exactly what you get. This is what makes sense to me.

[Captain_Orso]

Here are a couple of references I found. One is in the beta testers forum, so, unless you have access to the secluded zone you will not be able to view it directly:

These statements are from Pocus, and are in direct reference to a very similar discussion between beta-testers in the beta-forum. The statement was made on August the 1st, 2013.

Source: Replacement screen (version-0-95)

(-- snip --)
A hit is not equals to a conscript company. Because an element with 20 hits generally costs less than that, often 10.

When an element is fully lost in a unit and must be replaced, it will cost exactly 1 chit, with a 100% probability. When you have lost hits, then each chit generally restore twice as much hits as an element requires.
(-- snip --)

The other is the quote of a statement by Gray_Lensman from this public thread: #8]Various Pot Luck Easy Questions

because... If you don't replace the damaged hit points and end up LOSING the entire HQ unit in lieu of fixing up the damaged hit points it'll cost you the full reinforcement cost IF there are even any available in the reinforcement screen.

As in all replacements, HQ elements included, a replacement chit can theoretically restore 2 completely damaged elements. (90% is the effective max damage however since 100% means the element is totally destroyed necessitating a new reinforcement to be bought for single element units. Sometimes, an element will be totally destroyed WITHIN a multi-element brigade and eventually that destroyed element will be rebuilt at the cost a whole replacement chit instead of the theoretical 50%.

How it works: Say you have an element damaged at 60%. Providing you have a replacement chit for that element, a die is rolled at 30% odds (1/2 of 60%). If the 30% is rolled, the chit is used up, otherwise it remains unused. 90% damage would result in a 45% chance of a replacement chit being used up, etc. As above, totally destroyed elements within a multi-element brigade will always use up a replacement chit similar to the player/gamer having to pay the cost to build a new reinforcement unit. One last note, the cost of replacement chits is dynamic based on the average of the cost of the elements in play in the game.

Of course, if you want to ALWAYs guarantee paying full cost for elements... Don't buy ANY replacement chits and when the elements are totally destroyed. Voila, you guarantee paying full cost. I bet they'll be plenty of PBEMers waiting to play you, especially if you choose to play the CSA.

The reason you cannot follow the link to Gray_Lensman's original post is because GL is no longer active in the forums, and upon departing he deleted all of his posts. However, quotes of his posts are littered though the older forums, plus at one time I helped Pocus recover a couple of threads from and archive, which contained a lot of important reference information, such as the Supply Primer in the AACW forum.

[Gray Fox]

As you have already posted, the chits in AACW had twice the hits of an actual unit. So the description GL used is for that situation. He seems to be addressing another issue, whether one should buy any chits at all or just spend the resources on whole units and merge them as needed. I've read where the Conventional Wisdom was to buy chits...because they are like magic! This isn't a court of law. We can spend all of our time reposting speculation from years ago by really trusted people. Why do chits have an ability to replace more hits than they would have? This would be like buying a unit and maybe not have any of the cost subracted from your resources. Why would this exist in any game simulation?

[Captain_Orso]

I have no idea why Pocus decided how replacing hits should work. His statement "When you have lost hits, then each chit generally restore twice as much hits as an element requires" I interpret as meaning that what GL stated is still valid in CW2. BTW, Pocus made this statement after CW2 was already released, and it is highly unlikely that it was changed in the last minute. Such a last-minute-changes without a very pressing reason--and I can think of none--are from my experience never made by Pocus.

Short of a statement from Pocus in clear English, I will assume GL's description is the most likely correct answer to the question.

Without a clear statement from Pocus, the only other solution I can think of would be to simply test replacing hits to build a statistical average and comparing that to statements we have seen.

[Cardinal Ape]

That formula by Gray_Lensman seems plausible to me. When I rerun the same turn and watch the replacements the results do vary quite a bit. Though, when testing with severely damaged units the results are more consistent than those with lightly damaged units. Which is what should happen if the formula is right..

Why do chits have an ability to replace more hits than they would have? This would be like buying a unit and maybe not have any of the cost subracted from your resources. Why would this exist in any game simulation?

In fairness I think the opposite is also true; a chit could replace a single hit and be consumed. With enough rolls the average should be maintained.

I personally don't mind a bit of randomness here. I think it is better than knowing exactly how many replacements chits I need to buy each turn. The end result makes it really difficult to keep your entire army's health at its peak without massively overbuying replacements.

[John S. Mosby]

I personally don't mind a bit of randomness here. I think it is better than knowing exactly how many replacements chits I need to buy each turn. The end result makes it really difficult to keep your entire army's health at its peak without massively overbuying replacements.

I agree 100%. I don't want to know how the engine works to this degree. I enjoy the game more with randomness here and there. Afterall, real life has a lot of randomness especially back in 1861.

[GraniteStater]

Hear, hear! Play by the seat of your pants, let your military intuition and acumen come to the fore!

[John S. Mosby]

Hear, hear! Play by the seat of your pants, let your military intuition and acumen come to the fore!

Exactly and that's how the great generals on both sides made many decisions 150 years ago.

[Highlandcharge]

Fuzzy logic :-)

[ArmChairGeneral]

I think seat of the pants feel is the design goal here, AGEOD throws randomness into a lot of mechanics, why wouldn't they here? Almost everything in the source material indicates that there is SOME sort of randomness to how many hits a chit will actually replace. How that randomness is implemented is an open question. I thought I understood the underlying mechanic very well, down to the exact probability distribution, but Fox has made me question my assumptions, and now I can't find any references to how I understood it to work. Nonetheless, it appears to me that we are indeed purchasing milk without knowing exactly how much of a gallon we are actually receiving (I guess we are getting it at the farmer's market or something).

[W.Barksdale]

As you have already posted, the chits in AACW had twice the hits of an actual unit.

This is from the CW2 beta forum from Pocus, the main dev, not speculation.

Your various Majesties,
...
When an element is fully lost in a unit and must be replaced, it will cost exactly 1 chit, with a 100% probability. When you have lost hits, then each chit generally restore twice as much hits as an element requires.
...

In the long run on average a chit will restore 2x as many hits as a given element holds at full strength. I am reading this that when using replacement chits to restore hits there is a probability roll made to see if the chit is spent. Again, this is straight from the CW2 beta forum.