When and If to Pull Back for a Defensive as the CSA?

[juss]

Good day,

I have been wondering about games that last beyond 1863 summer. In case CSA offensives have been working out well/brilliant/perfect, when and if it's a good idea to pull back for the defensive?
Should I pull back the moment I realize that breaking union's neck becomes unlikely/very unlikely (that is, a sudden death victory)? Should I still hold on to Union VP cities to build the advantage in VP's until I am actually beaten out and auto-retreat? Should I try for a sudden death till my last breath, that is, smash recklessly into Washington or battle-grind until the South is so out of blood that all offensive capability is gone? Or is there a decisive victory point threshold (let's say a 1000 points ahead of USA anytime) that "guarantees" a minor victory, and that's when you pull back to best defensive interior lines? Or is it all about mobile defense in depth?

I will bring my current game as an example, so that I could relate your advice to an actual situation. I'm playing on all the recommended hard settings, except for the fact that AI is on Lieutenant instead of Colonel.

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I have had no serious plunders, and maybe one or two minor plunders. I have been besieging Washington for at least half a year, with a regular naval blockade of the Potomac. Grant's [EDIT: It seems he has left that post this turn] entrenched with a 50k+ stack with about lvl 8 entrenchment. Every breach gets repaired in a turn. I gave up Shenandoah Valley to concentrate about 130k on Washington, but haven't dared to assault an unbreached lvl 2 fort. Since then, I decided to move on Philly with a third of my army, hoping that it would make Athena pull back some troops endangering Richmond from Shenandoah. It worked to my advantage. I control everything I had at the game's start (July 1861). I built all the ironworks available, which I now see was a waste. I have a 1000+ pwr Ironclad navy in New Orleans. So overall, I am feeling pretty awesome.
The thing is, I can't get Union's NM low enough to win the game. I mean, I had at one point a NM of 170. Yet, Union always recovers and has never been under 70. Would this be a good time to pull back to defendable/impregnable "let Union grind it out lines"? If then why so?

It's the second game I'm in a similar situation and I don't have a clue of how to proceed. My brains tell me to retreat, but my heart tells me I deserve a major victory.

EDIT:
In case anyone needs to know the whole situation. KY recruiting pool is essentially empty. Virginia, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, NC and SC are very low on recruitables. Haven't touched Arkansas nor Texas (except for a single Texan bde), and Missouri still has most Bde's left. Tennessee pool is nearly empty. However, I have captured so many enemy guns that I have focused on fielding as many brigades as possible, so most regions have plenty of artillery builds left. Oh, and I am positive that enemy has not captured more than 15k prisoners.
A 1100 pwr stack just finished in Alabama. Going to take out Ft. Pickens and then keep the army as a quick reaction force vs landings. My suicide cav and slight loyalty (yes, I spend all the demonstartion cards) tell me that Boston has a up to 1500 pwr stack. I have a 1200 pwr stack in New Orleans. NO has a fort, and the coastal regions have stockades with light artillery. I have shipped Alexandria Fort and Coastal Btr. to Richmond, and Annapolis, Baltimore and Philadelphia captured guns to (fort) Norfolk. I actually hold Ft. Morgan. I have 1 bde in Texas. Van Dorn took Denver (I used nearly all my partisans and copperheads aroud that region in the first two years + some rangers), which made Union move North from Santa Fe, after which I took Santa Fe. I razed Tuscon along with all the forts I could cause I invested very little in NM. I have a fort in New Madrid, with Cairo's captured guns.

PS! Thank you in advance! You are all awesome, love reading this forums

[Captain_Orso]

Pile as much offensive artillery (10 and 20lb-ers, siege artillery) onto Lee as possible and set him to bombard to block supplies from reaching Washington by water. If you can, put enough gunboats into the Potomac to blockade Washington's harbor so that production in Washington is reduced. As soon as Washington's supplies run out, and every hit on Washington during a siege hits supplies too, there is a very good chance that Washington and everything in it will surrender. Once Washington falls, the game will probably be over.

If it isn't, pick a good defensive position along a river to dig in behind. You might even take Philadelphia even if you don't hold it, just because you can, but only if there is little to no cost.

If I were the South, I'd be contemplating taking and sweeping up from Saint Louis toward Chicago. The Union can hardly fight in both the eastern and mid-western theaters effectively. Although there are a lot of medium sized cities west of Chicago which can put out troops, with the disparity between Union and Confederate NM the game will probably run out before your fun does.

[juss]

I tried to starve Washington out by blockading the Potomac, and besieged it for at least half a year. However, I never tried the bombard move. Thank you heaps

In regards to Chicago, in another game I have gone from St. Louis to Chicago, taking Springfield (IL) on the way. From Chicago, I met up in Indianapolis with my Kentucky force who had taken Columbus and Cincinnati prior. However, NM-wise it didn't make a difference [EDIT: or did you mean that thanks to the already existing NM difference, I should be able to hold Chicago and fight off everything they can field West of there?]. I got a steady boost of VP's, but that's all. Hence, I have started to doubt if I should ever extend my lines to that extent. Does the Union lose any NM for the strategic towns that are not objective cities?

[ArmChairGeneral]

I would aim for DC as well. You get 50 NM when you take it, which may put you over the top. Even if it doesn't, Union fighting ability will then be crippled and you should be able to easily run down a few stacks to get enough NM for the win. (The AI doesn't make very good decisions once its capital falls, so mopping-up is pretty easy.)

DC is usually weaker than it looks, although you will probably need to gather at least another Corps to take it (and heed Orso's advice about bringing more guns). If you have established a blockade of the harbor they shouldn't be able to recover from hits you deliver, while your stacks can draw replacements as normal, and you can grind them down. An unsuccessful assault or two will cost you a few NM, but weaken the defenders enough that you can force your way through eventually. You probably won't be able to starve them out though, DC generates a lot of supply and stockpiles even more.

You are right to think you deserve a Major Victory, you are winning and just need to find a way to deliver the coup-de-grace. At this point I am usually abandoning other theaters in favor of concentrating on DC. (But, of course, don't get sucker-punched at Richmond )

[Captain_Orso]

Being able to bombard into a water region prevents supplies from moving through it. Blockading the harbor reduces by 25% production and prevents replacements from arriving in the blockaded location. You have to get a confirmed blockade. A tool-tip of the harbor exit point should tell you, and a blockade icon should appear in the Prince George (Washington D.C.) region, but sometimes they are obscured by the city sprite.

I wouldn't assault before you are regularly scoring a breach which does not get repaired. If you do not breach or breaches are repaired, you don't have enough artillery; in a siege hits, breaches and repairing breaches are all a results of the difference between the besieged sides defensive artillery value vs the besieging sides offensive artillery value. Manual:Siege combat

With low NM Union troops fight poorly, because they are demoralized. If Washington falls, or even if they move the capital, which probably cannot be done if it is besieged and blockaded, morale will drop significantly, and with it fighting ability.

Already at this point is where I start playing the game for pure fun, trying to see how much of the North I can take before resistance the North completely collapses. The problem is that with every major city you take and every battle resulting in a Union slaughter, Union NM will drop again, pushing them closer to over the edge.

If you just want to play just-for-fun once Washington falls, you could put a special event in to increase Union NM to like 80 again, to give them a will to continue. The Union will still have more than enough money and resources to put up a fight and you can play Lee-is-the-new-Napoleon .

[juss]

I didn't dare to assault Washington, so I tried to wait the siege out.
I was having the utmost fun for Athena started to play brilliantly in the West by concentrating to attack me (only to be repulsed, the NM making the difference), followed by dividing her troops to lure me into attacking, only to concentrate the very same turn my troops arrived in the target region to be smashed by superior odds (3 to 1 usually). That, somehow, despite the fact that Morgan had cut the East from the West and greatly hampered the RR connections within the West. Then, when I tried to force a decisive battle by concentrating what I could afford, they would divide and sneak into Kentucky, Missouri, Eastern Tennessee, and it would take ages to chase them out. Then the cycle would repeat itself. Furthermore, Athena started some naval invasions.
Now, in the East, Athena was pushing hard to cut my Washington forces' supply chain by pressuring Manassas and Alexandria. Fortunately, I won four bloody battles (with even casualties, bout 12 000 per battle per side), and repulsed Union from Virginia and got them stuck beyond Harper's Ferry. This bought me enough time to starve Washington. Finally, on late May 1864, Washington struck its colors and I won my very first Major Victory as the CSA. 4000 Victory points to 2100 :P

Now, this gives me the confidence to push for a major victory in all future games without being reckless, knowing that it can still be done this late in the game. Hence, I will only consider falling back for the defensive once there is no chance whatsoever to fell Washington.

Thank you for your advice