Shogun's Defiance: Japan against the West

[loki100]

you're doing well playing off the European powers. Nice of the Dutch to give you some modern ships too, should make you the regional power and maybe able to deter a small invasion force - if the Americans get really antsy with you

[Kensai]

True. But I am still worrying about the tech gap. Did you see what the "Ieyasu" battleship did to those pirate puny little junks with one broadside or so? This will be my end if I go against the American (or any other Western) Navy without enough modern ships. The event of the Dutch that give Western ships to the Japanese in exchange of passage/supply rights was a way to offset the already low R&D progression given the abysmal relations with most of the advanced Western nations (due to the other custom events that fired that worsened relations). If the algorithm works as I imagine it does, I will be really slow to catch up with them (bad relations with tech holders slow down own research). The economy is in a good state and taxation is high in order to boost R&D in sail frigates and battleships, as I want to abstract the copying of ship design, now that we've seen how the Dutch are doing it.

Thankfully the percussion cap muskets will give the Shogunate the ability to at least create some semi-modern land forces in case Nippon gets invaded although the cost of modern forces is huge. I would be better off with my feudal quantitative advantage and gazillions of samurais. But then again, it will be for the Americans as if they are fighting Indians...

[Kensai]

Early 1855

The year started with a terrible destruction. An earthquake and subsequent tsunami rocked Nippon.



Iesada after consulting with his advisors decided to form the Shogunal Guards: the first standing army corps of Japan, in order to protect the Shogunate and move quickly against any danger, internal or external. Other support elements are being recruited as well, according to Dutch and French suggestions.



Matsudaira Katamori, a faithful of the regime, will be commanding the new force between Edo and Fukushima. Almost 35000 troops will be under his command, probably the largest concentration of troops since the Sengoku Jidai, the century of the country at war in the 16th century!



A decision was taken to create a "manufactory of defense equipment" (uniforms, boots, bags, etc) for the new semi-professional field army of Japan. All in Katamori's Aizo domain, near Fukushima.



We hear that Russia has its share of problems in the Caucasus which has fallen in the hands of rebels. Russia, albeit powerful, has a hard time defending its vast territory from splinter non-Orthodox factions.



By May, we had managed to secure an exclusive commercial agreement with the Chinese Empire. Our "bigger cousins" in Asia. We shall help the Qing Empire stabilize against the Westerners. Our engineers have managed to copy the design of Western Sail Frigates and we can now build them ourselves. And so we do, together with more commercial ships to try and trade with the nations of South America. We want to have options in case the Americans become aggressive with us and cut us off their lucrative market. We also try to acquire one with Siam as well. Siam has already signed such agreements with the UK and USA among others, probably to keep its freedom!

The four new Takao-class frigates are not as good as the Dutch ones, but they will make part of the new Shogunal Fleet to defend Nippon from the fate of colonization!

[Kensai]

Late 1855

By July, the Shogun has given permission for the creation of an Institute of Western Studies, in order to study the ways of our Western rivals. Japan has tried reclusion successfully for the last two centuries, but this seems not be a viable strategy anymore. We have to do our best to understand and copy Western technology, in order to implement a more robust defense.



In the last month of December, what we've been fearing for some time became reality. President Scott signed the executive order to seize any Japanese asset they come in possession, essentially declaring war to us. This is a pivotal moment for Japan... we fear for our survival. The Americans are in position to colonize us. They have twice our firepower as well as much more advanced firearms. Their navy is far larger than ours too.





Shogun Iesada immediately asked the local Daimyos to prepare the defenses of the realm. This is a great opportunity to give the Southern lords something to keep them occupied. After all, the imperial faction has always demanded for a hardline against the Westerners. It is imperative to beef up our economy as we wait for the next American moves. Perhaps they will only embargo us. But the worse would be if they invaded us...

Ganbatte!

[loki100]

oh whoops, things have got very serious.

But, this early in the game, can the US really manage to project much power into the Pacific?

[Kensai]

Yep, that event had 20% probability to fire by late 1855 and it fired. I am not sure exactly if the USA can mount an offensive*. But the AI is very nice into bringing ships in MTBs and creating havoc. In fact, as I will show in tomorrow's posting, this is exactly what it did... and, trust me, if I was sending the junks to counter their frigates and battleships, only me was getting hits.

These early wars between Great Britain and Prussia, Austria and France, and now USA - Japan have actually decreased the ability of certain nations to trade due to intensive MTB warfare which is actually cool. The USA has still 2x Japan's power and is much more advanced in tech, but I doubt as well it can invade me and beat me. But neither can I, at least at the moment. As far as I can remember USA in the first years has a very slow progression and abysmally low manpower. As well as many Indian territories to pacify. Their navy can still hurt Japan in the long term though, it will all depend on that. Given that Japan needs to trade more than USA to progress, USA has the advantage in an idle war.

*the AI has been set with objectives and biases for the Pacific, so in theory it is helped to intervene against Japan

[Kensai]

Early 1856

By April we had already some skirmishes with American commercial ships trading in Southeast Asia. We prevailed, mainly because the Americans had not sent a lot of ships to defend against our numerical advantage. Nonetheless, the junks seem to be completely antiquated to fight against the modern US frigates and battleships. A second batch of 4 frigates was ordered to be constructed in the shipyards of Yokohama. Other land support units were recruited as well.



New technologies arrive every month in Japan. The Shogunate is not closed anymore in new ideas. Coal cleaning is important although we don't have an issue at the moment, we are self-sufficient in coal from our mines. But building a big fleet of modern warships might change this, we must be prepared.



By June we had a wonderful development. Napoleon the 3rd, Emperor of the French decided to openly support our modernization. More things may come out of this friendship. The Dutch and the French are the two nations we trust in Europe. But we cannot count on the French going against the Americans directly, they won't have anything to gain. French ships unloaded a lot of supplies and goods to the Japanese ports, things we can use for our defense.



The new Japanese frigates were sent to raid American commercial shipping. But in the straight between Korea and Japan, we managed to dispatch pirates that were active against our trade lines. Only one Korean ship managed to escape. Heh, it will tell the others the fate it awaits them. This was again proof of the power of modern ships against the old junk designs.

[Kensai]

Late 1856

By July the French Emperor kept his word of continuous support to Japan. He sent one of the most formidable ships to Nagasaki, the ironcladded frigate "Napoleon III". With this ship we have a great weapon against the American quantitative advantage in the Pacific. Although it is only one ship.





The military of Japan continues to expand under the auspices of the Shogun and Emperor Komei. Two new corvette squadrons are being constructed as well as heavy siege artillery in case we need to bombard the Americans landing. Skirmishes happen all over the map in trade points, the Americans had the better of most these conflicts, especially against our trade ships in South America.



The United States of America under President Scott had another weapon in their sleeve: mobilization! The Americans decided for a partial mobilization to free up powers against their wars with the Indians. After a couple of months of recruiting militia and national guard, their power ratio is again 3.2x ours. And to that we should add their technological advantage. They also had their first losses which I was curious to see so I loaded up their turn, indeed it was trouble with the Apache in the Midwest. The Apache are more or less as our own Samurai, albeit we doubt they have the same high morale as our troops have.







We sent our first resource explorers to the disputed Sakhalin island. At the moment, they are idle (Japan does not have many colonial options at the moment).



Admiral Katsu is also returning to the Yellow Sea with the modern Shogunal Fleet to chase American ships trading with the Chinese and protecting our own shipping from their raiders.

[loki100]

like how the French and Dutch are keen to wage proxy war on the US by equipping Japan ... and the efforts of your noble Indian allies

[Kensai]

1867

I played an entire year (24 turns) as nothing really important happened. The midterm elections in the USA brought the 35th Congress which pressed President Scott for a peaceful solution. In fact, three times in this year the Americans gave us a peace offer with some 250-300 money as reparations for a year's worth of lost opportunities. Emperor Komei pressed the Shogun not to accept these offers as they were simply buying time for the Americans. Why would they mobilize if they wanted to pledge for peace?

By early 1857 we started experimenting with a new more efficient way of fishing. Given that Japan has a prestige goal in fish and rice production, it seems important!



The Americans keep sending their fleets (for example the 5th) to harass our trade lines. We also learned from our spies in Washington that President Scott has convinced the Congress to appropriate funds for the army. Is this how the Americans plan for peace?!

We also built fishing ports in the Kurile Islands.



Now that we have acquired the know-how (tech) on how to build battleship-class ships, the Daimyo of Choshu (Hiroshima) has given the order to build 4 of those big ships. The Shogun did not agree, as it was not a priority (he insisted on faster, smaller ships to stop the American raids), but the Daimyo went on regardless probably for his own prestige. It will be a slow process, taking more than a year to complete. More commercial ships are being prepared, this time to trade with the faraway lands of Spain and Sardinia-Piedmont (the Mediterranean).



I saw some serious casualties for Austria in the F10 screen so I loaded up their turn. They seem to be using the German Grand Duchy of Baden for their incursions in Alsace. But the French Emperor holds his ground. The Rhein is a great natural barrier. If only the Prussians were on the Austrian side, but they have their own share of problems with the British, essentially being cut off from overseas markets. The British, nonetheless, have issues in India as the Mughalist revolt is underway.

[Kaiser85]

nice one! I follow your AAR

[Kensai]

January-February 1858

This winter Shogun Iesada made up his mind. The Americans would never stop coming. And after dealing with their internal problems, they would definitely change the rules of engagement. We should be the ones making the rules, not them. Also, I forgot to say, this last year there was a global financial crisis starting from the USA. Japan was spared, but only because it had a closed controlled economy, our trade partners suffered. What can be done?

In January we managed to catch and destroy one fleeing American trader.



In February we learned about two gold discoveries in Northern America, one in the lands of the USA, ripe for taking. We should not disturb the British, but the Americans, especially in California and beyond are fair game to fund our rise!





Many Daimyos, especially from the South eager to be praised by the Shogun and the Emperor, will take part in the invasion.



So, the decision has been taken. The spirits of the nation are very high, Emperor Komei commented that it was a great moment for our nation. An opportunity to catch the Americans off guard. Yes, they are powerful, but can they resist us? 3 invasion fleets are being constructed in Yokohama (1st Invasion Fleet), Sendai (2nd Invasion Fleet), and Kobe (3rd Invasion Fleet). The Yokohama one will be ready very soon, given the shipbuilding infrastructure there. The journey across the Pacific will be long and perilous, so we've decided to make the Kingdom of Hawai a stepping stone. It should become a vassal of our nation, like the Kuriles.

Many young Japanese flock to man the invading army. The event gives limited colonial actions to Japan as well as a boost in officers and conscripts. This is done to abstract this early expansive attitude.



We have decided for two potential approach routes. The Northern (I) and the Southern (II). The I has the advantage of being protected by the huge Nez Perce buffer zone of Eastern Oregon Territory, which we hear are in unofficial war with the Americans, coming and pillaging as West as the Willamette Valley and as North as the British Canadian territories. The II is less dangerous as far as weather goes and can give us the opportunity to capture the fledgling Los Angeles Coaling Station to moor our warships as they bring in more troops. The Apache on the East are a much weaker buffer.



As you can see here, only California is in the Union. It is surrounded by unincorporated territories. We, as Japan, are especially interested in the extended Oregon area, even if we'll have to go against the Native Americans!



The Americans are 3x times stronger still, but are concentrated in their lands of the East (Atlantic side). Only California is an official American State, Oregon Territory is still being organized. The map shows San Fransisco as an objective city and Seattle (the region around) as strategic city, although not quite sure if in PON strategic cities play some role apart from extra warscore and AI bias.



In less than 20 days, the first samurais had arrived in Hawai, thanks to the good winds. They were welcomed and we immediately captured the American facilities (a mission) there. The tradepost was burned down by the fleeing American citizens which we apprehended. The Hawaians are more than us, we should stay friendly at the moment. The mission will be converted to a Buddhist temple. The capture of the American facilities in Hawai gave us even more national morale!

[loki100]

dramatic stuff, but makes sense to try and grab some land on the West Coast now.

but - guess it will set up permanent tensions with the US?

[Kensai]

Some explanations behind the scenes. When I was designing this mod I had noticed what you had also noticed, loki100, that the Americans are kind of weak in the beginning. This makes historically much sense. Japan was a huge overpopulated country even in the 1850s, it was the fear of the unknown that made the Shoguns yield, not their inability to defend their land in case the USA invaded. Actually, I really think Commodore Perry's move was an audacious one, a bluff so to speak. He came with 4 ships in the beginning and some more when he returned. No invading army, just bullying and harassment (gunboat diplomacy).

I seriously doubt the pre-Civil War USA could possibly pull this through, given their internal woes and the fact that only one State was in the West, that of California (as Oregon got statehood just in 1859). In this alternate reality I have noticed the Americans are doing their best to calm the spirits of the Indian populations residing in their vast unincorporated territories of the Midwest, but they are certainly not in position to harm Japan. When I am done with this AAR, I could try to play this scenario in a PBEM and have a real human man the Americans. To subdue Japan after the game starts is not impossible, but it will be very hard. Japan has a lot of manpower, albeit of low quality ceremonial troops.

At the moment I simulate WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED if the Shogun had good intelligence that he can pull this through. That the Americans are not so strong in the West and have their own internal problems with the South. Given the help from the Dutch and French I took, this could be almost realistic. Btw, the trip to the West Coast of the USA can take some 3 turns (more than a month) with the transports of an invading army, sounds very cool. I wonder in what state my invading forces will arrive. I have already moved my commercial ships from the Mediterranean and Southern Atlantic in the MTBs as stepping stones to the West Coast. I am really worrying about supplies. It's an ocean away! If I bring too many troops, they might starve. Too few, I might get crushed.

[Crixdaz]

I guess Pearl Harbor will have another name in this history.

I was thinking in the mexicans, they lost more than the half of his territory less than ten years before this moment. Could they try a move? I guess that they're really unstable in this moment but this is an unique situation of USA weakness. Also this previous mexican-american campaign could be a good example to know they're capabilities in the far west.

The only thing that have been change since the Mexico invasion is the south issue. Can the Dixies take this situation as an advantage or they'll face the invasion as a common enemy?

I think that both opinions could have an important weight in this situation, even the indian nations could have something to say.

[Kensai]

I have not modded a potential Mexican involvement, but that would be quite interesting for some future work, at least as a low-probability (5%) firing event. The thing is, the Mexicans had the opportunity in real life to help the CSA and did not. The same happened in the First World War when they were approached by the Imperial Germany. I think after 1848 the Mexicans understood there is more to lose than to gain by antagonizing the Americans.

I have noticed the events that have fired so far, the Americans are on the verge of the Civil War, the House Divided speech by Lincoln has already been delivered, and my alternate reality President Scott has his hands full limiting certain Western Indians (the Apache in the Southwest and the Nez Perce in the Northwest). Yes, it is a very crucial moment for the Americans, if they were united the Japanese would have never dared to invade them... but now... I would keep the Mexicans out of any scripted involvement. The Indians have already taken a lot of territory and the AI is busy hunting them down, I am curious how Athena will react when she sees invading armies in the West coast. I bet she will start moving armies although consider that in this era (late 50s) it is quite difficult and strenuous to march through the entire continent to reach the West coast.

PS. Nonetheless, the AI is pretty good in moving its trade ships and MTB raiders around. Each turn or so I have to endure some hits by frigates and ships-of-the-line hitting my commercial lines as close as the Yellow Sea.

[Kensai]

March-April 1858

By late March the invading armada against the West coast had departed from Yokohama. By the 10th day of travel, our ships had a close encounter in the thick rain of mid Pacific, near Minori island. Two American frigates were surrounded and destroyed, we did not allow them flee and possibly warn the US defenses.





The President of the United States, nonetheless, contacted us through his diplomats in order to offer a peace proposal. They want to buy us out this time by giving us the Territory of Idaho. But this is landlocked and in Indian lands. So they actually want to sell us land we cannot access and full of problems. We obviously reject.



By April we were set to arrive in the Central Coast of California, midway between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The landing there is expected relatively peaceful. The weather shall be nice according to our calculations (weather filter). The fleet is in aggressive mode, nonetheless, if the Americans dare to meet us in the sea, they will find a nasty surprise! We shall bombard any units on the land as well. This is a very delicate step of the invasion. We do not know the wherabouts of any Californian defenders.

[Gen. Monkey-Bear]

I'm not exactly thrilled of you invading my home region, but I would suggest from your point of view attacking San Francisco. More resources, and a better port.

This war (from the U.S.A. perspective) reminds me of the Barbary Wars - I suggest you read about it if you haven't already. It was basically the first overseas military campaign. It was more of a defensive action, but there are some similarities here. The U.S. Navy was pretty overstretched at that time, just like in this scenario. I think in both cases, if the U.S. overseas offensive hadn't worked, they would have simply made peace and not tried too hard to fight to the last man over it. As you say here, Commodore Perry's advance was truly a bluff, but if it hadn't worked, and the presumed retaliatory bombardment by the U.S. hadn't worked either, I think they would have just gone home and seen it as a failed, far-off imperialist exploit, nothing urgent to national security. It's hard to imaging Japan crossing the Pacific without agreeing to a peace, just as it's hard to imagine the Barbary states mounting a serious offensive in American waters.

[Kensai]

The scenario is a stretch, obviously. The Shoguns were not eager to expand either, they were happy with their lot. But given some alternate reality circumstances (1) China stopping Russia in the early stages of the game, (2) Shogun and Emperor actually agreeing on fighting off the Westerners, (3) French and Dutch giving material help and advisers, (4) President's Scott election instead of Pierce, (5) and a big dose of unyielding defiance into invading the potential invader... I decided it might be worth it and fun.

Japan is the underdog here. It is invading a much larger power, 3x stronger, in the other side of the ocean. The logistics are hard, I might not pull this off. But it is one of the best "what-if" challenges I could think off, albeit not totally realistic. But even Toyotomi Hideyoshi's invasion of Korea in the 16th century wasn't realistic either long-term. The worse that can happen is that the US forces kick my ass and I decide to depart. Both Japan and USA had the same populations in 1860, about 30 million souls, but there is a difference here: about 25+ million Americans live in the East Coast and are readying to fight a Civil War, while the Japanese (at least in this alternate reality) are united behind war fervor.

April-June 1858

The landing by mid April was successful. We did not encounter much resistance although the local peasants were quite surprised into seeing some 40+ ships vomiting five thousand strange-looking soldiers. We quickly surveyed the region and decided to head for the village and coaling station of Los Angeles. We will need that moor to resupply our troops and ships.



Unfortunately, the semi-dement but warlike Shogun Iesada died before getting the best news of his life: those of the successful landing. The new Regent (Tairo) is Ii Naosuke, as we try to find a new Shogun, given that Iesada did not have children. Naosuke won't have much to say in the economy.



By June we had sent some cavalry in the inland desert to meet with the Indian tribes. We assured them we will not enter their territory, after all they are hostile to the Americans as well and create a buffer zone. We also sent a brigade down to San Diego to capture that region as well, and Itakura is joining too, it's a 3 days march. We have had news that the Americans have recaptured the Apache territory of Maricopa and are shadowing us. They are of equal size to us, we should bring reinforcements...



The vassalage of the Kurile islands is almost complete. Since we started this invasion, though, we've been facing a lack of manufactured goods to expand our infrastructure and recruit more soldiers. After a few months idling of other projects the Tairo gave the order to recruit two marine divisions and a cavalry one. These are big, professional units under the advices of French officers. We need to multiply our landing points in the West Coast including the fertile Willamette Valley of Oregon and San Fransisco itself! But we are now almost completely out of manufactured goods...

[Kensai]

July-August 1858

The Americans have not crossed Colorado river, but they seem to be amassing troops in the fort of Maricopa. I guess this is not only to protect it from Apache attacks. The 14th Column could create us trouble. We shall keep our troops in San Diego to the border with the neutral Mexicans.



In Europe we hear that there was attempt to murder our benefactor, Napoleon the 3rd. The Italians seem to need him for their own independence.



The preparations are being completed in Sendai and Kagoshima. The last ships are being fitted to bring reinforcements to our American expedition. The Tairo has given his permission for the Guards Corps to move to California, after all, it should not interfere with the Tokugawa election of the new Shogun. In Kagoshima, the glorious Satsuma Daimyo waits for his own opportunity as well. Matsudaira Katamori will go to California and reinforce our main thrust while Satsuma Nariakira will land on Oregon.





Japan finally understands the Bessemer method of forging steel and we are working hard to apply this new approach to have our own steel mills. Although steel is not in demand, we cannot be called a modern nation if we don't have our own industrial forgeries for the shipping of the future!

(note: Japan cannot build a steel mill in the beginning of the game, it is so backwards!)

[loki100]

its going to be fascinating to see how the Americans respond, and what sort of peace deal you can extract. Presume you'd be content with a single province as a foot hold?

[Kensai]

There are three possible finales, two of them scripted.
I won't give all the details, but here's what can a player do with my mod:

1. Extract a peace on your own through the Diplomacy interface. Well, if you want Idaho or something similar. Oregon and Washington are possibly "colonies" one can acquire, but you need more warscore than the 15 I have acquired so far. This attempt probably needs a very aggressive stance right from the first time Perry returns (ie. kill the American diplomats in that decision) and start an offensive war right away.
2. If the player takes enough Western territory where it matters and pains, an event may fire that makes peace and gives a very good (and realistic) deal for the Japanese.
3. If the war is still waging and the American Civil War starts, another scripted event fires where the Americans make an emergency deal to stop the hostilities with Japan, as they have to fight their brothers in the South. This ends, again, with a nice arrangement for the Japanese.

Obviously, all the above IF and ONLY Japan manages to beat both the Americans and Indians from the Western coast... and this is not easy. The units the Americans can bring is mind-boggling and they fight a defensive war... If Athena plays her advantage well, she may as well throw me to the sea. I am a few turns ahead of those reported here in the AAR and the concentration of troops coming from the East is alarming. And I really don't know what could happen if Russia or any other world power declared war on me, given the bad relations.

[Kensai]

I want you to imagine for a moment my Guards Corps that are about to be sent in California.



Check out the unit's avatar and look at this page as well. Yep, these are the guys (look at the masked infantry in page 7)





Of course, once in California, Japanese troops were influenced by American ways of dressing. Some of the officers wanted more of a cowboy's attire! (look at Yaichiru Nagayama)

[Crixdaz]

Another good moment that give us$ this game: Samurais in California. I can't wait to see the outcome.

What could be the peace deal exactly? I cannot imagine what can offer the diplomatic engine to Japan, besides a lot of money and a commercial agreement.

[loki100]

wonderful images Kensai ...

Another good moment that give us$ this game: Samurais in California. I can't wait to see the outcome.

What could be the peace deal exactly? I cannot imagine what can offer the diplomatic engine to Japan, besides a lot of money and a commercial agreement.

aye this bit of alt-history is interesting in its possibilities, but it does seem as if the US is not at all happy with Japan's incursion.

[Kensai]

September 1858

The month we made contact. First land contact that is. A previously unseen brigade of US volunteers came down from the Central Valley to surprise Commander-in-Chief Takenaka in Los Angeles. Nonetheless, they must have only been probing as they broke of their attack rather quickly and were too few. Our elite mounted Samurais reacted very good.

(obviously, as you see in the second screen, only two units engaged... the rest in the first is what I have amassed in the vicinity)





This is the situation by late September. Our ships almost rule the Coast of California, blockading any American traffic in and out of the important port city of San Francisco, our ultimate goal in the area! With the landings of the Daimyo of Satsuma in Oregon and General Katamori in the South we have placed our forces for further gains. However we need to stabilize our position. As reconnaissance becomes richer we see many small American formations of National Guard and Volunteers coming from the East. We shall keep the Apache buffer at the moment, the Indians are hostile to the Americans as well.



The Colonel Johnston we lost track of some weeks ago in Maricopa seems to have marched in the midst of the August through the Mojave Desert. He has now reached Oregon and is orchestrating the defenses there. Shimatsu Narikira has orders to engage him and take possession of Willamette Valley!



This is the current situation in the South regarding the hard problems of logistics. We are building our depots in Los Angeles and have possession of two other territories in the North and South. I will have to bring supply carts and not more troops as I am approaching the limit of my supply ability. I have already daisy-chained trade ships in the MTBs from Japan to the West Coast of the USA to ferry supplies from Japan, but they are not enough. California is not so well developed in the 50s.

Our C-in-C is Takenaka, responsible for the whole Western Theater (always have at least one 3-star General per Theater). He is a Good Vainglorious General that gives extra troop quality (an unknown metric to me) and extra cohesion (which is a top bonus).



When Takenaka is active he adds his cohesion bonus to that of the corps commander (Katamori) and the already high morale of the Guards unit... the result is an astonishing morale of 132 per element... essentially making my Shogunal Guards unbreakable!
(or so I hope)

[loki100]

I think 'quality' is more experience in practical terms

I'd forgotten how limiting poor terrain is for frontage in the early game. That certainly will allow you to make the most out of your few elite units.

From other reports and AARs, I think the American Civil War tends to kick in about late 1859 so it seems you have a year to hang on and then maybe expand enough to give you a decent return for your efforts. Though I do fear you'll have a permanently annoyed USA on your hands

[Kensai]

I wish I can hold at least until the Civil War erupts. Then the Americans (Union) will have actually three fronts to fight: the Confederates, the Indians, and the Japanese. Well, the Confederates can be quite the distraction, the Indians much less, they are mostly a nuisance although given their locations and hit and run tactics could create logistics problems for supplying the US reinforcements against us in the West. 1859 is the earliest the CW can start, indeed, but it remains a 15% probability event after 15% of the firing of the last trigger event which is in late 1859.

My main problem in the West coast is supplying my troops. Albeit the MTB daisy chain can bring up to 240 supply carts per month, it is definitely not enough. The Guards Corps alone eats most of it. I need to take San Fransisco as soon as possible, but that will need "siege cannons" cause it is a fortified city.

October 1858

With the arrivals of our reinforcements in Oregon and the central Californian coast, it seems we are turning things in our favor. However we need to act fast, as we cannot supply many troops for long and bringing few troops could mean not winning battles.



The Ryukyuan volunteers will be helping us keep the seas clear around the Southern islands in Japan.



Shimazu Nariakira manages to surprise and destroy the defenders of Willamette Valley. Unfortunately, as they flee, they burn the infrastructure. At least we are conquerors of the most fertile valley in Oregon!





Back home there is no reserve on who will be the next Shogun. Nonetheless, Tairo Li Naosuke will remain for some more time as the new Shogun is not of age.



Understanding the supply problems we have in our campaign against California, we will send some more supplies from Yokohama. A fleet made mostly by cargo, at least by weight, is being prepared.



The situation by the end of October is positive. Although we see that Colonel Johnston has managed to amass his defenders in Sacramento, made mostly by 49ers who want to fight for their golden wealth.

[Kensai]

I have not abandoned this AAR, I am at late 1859... but I decided to play it through and then post the entire after-action report as the war in the States is going on for good. This happened because I lost count of how many turns I said "just one more turn" and then I will post the results. War is obviously the best part of any AGEOD game.

[Kensai]

November 1858

What we were fearing became reality. The Californians decided to rebel against our rule. Almost everywhere we have landed.



In Japan more forces are being prepared to be sent to the West American coast. Nabeshima from Nagasaki is a well-known Daimyo who has been trading with the Dutch and their advanced Western technology for some time now. His siege cannons will be used in our attempt to capture San Fransisco. He shall be arriving in California in a couple of months. The Daimyo of Choshu will follow.



Various battles ensued with the rebellious Californian militias and partisans in the Southern part of the State. We managed to win all of them, but only due to the fact the Americans were unready. The most difficult was the one in Central Valley as the forces were commandeered by the Federal Generals. Although they had a numerical advantage, our forces were better prepared and qualified. We managed to route them thanks to the great Katamori General. Takenaka had the overall command.



Nonetheless, the situation is still dangerous as we need to control the coastal range as well. Our frigates bombard the enemy positions.



The Shimazu Daimyo has landed in coastal Oregon Territory, but is too weak to force his hand in the Vancouver Fort. Nonetheless, our overwhelming forces have cleared a logistics path. At least our much needed supplies will pass. More reinforcements are coming in the winter from the home islands.



It is imperative we have full control of these populated American regions, as quality alone cannot guarantee in subduing the rebellious sentiments...



The Austrian-French war has had a breakthrough. The Austrians have managed to overwhelm Napoleon's armies and Strasbourg has fallen!