If only Kaplan's shot had killed Lenin?

[Taillebois]

I bought this game as much as anything just to support AGEOD.

So, not really knowing enough about the period I open my old copy of Encyclopedia Britannica and almost immediately at random read:

" On Aug 30,1918 one of his agents (Savinkov's) a girl named Kaplan shot Lenin as he left a workers' meeting in Moscow. He did not die, but the Bolsheviks met Savinkov's terrorism with their own "Red Terror."

Hmmm, another history period to read up on; and I'm still not up to speed with the Rise of Prussia, let alone the bloody Romans. What have they done for us anyway?

[andatiep]

I don't think assassination of Lenin in july-august 1918 would really change a lot's of things in the military aspects of the RCW afterwards, so in the RUS game (i don't say it will not change a lot's of things at the political level after the war, between Stalin, Trotsky and other factions. Stalin faction would be maybe much less powerfull, but it's hard to draw scenarios).
Note also that the cult of personnality about Lenin cames only after this assination attempt.

I think the most interesting alternative history point would be earlier : What if the Sovnarkom (so here a Sovnarkom without Lenin (whatever he's died or still in exil, or with a Lenin keeped in the minority) did NOT sign the treaty of Brest-litovsk in march 1918. Remember left-SR rebelled and so Kaplan did attack Lenin because of the Brest-Litovsk treaty.

No treaty would means :
- no Czech Legion rebellion but instead a Czech legion support to the new Red Army,
- so no Komouch could be born on the Volga,
- so no conservative Whites could organize strongly in Siberia.
- no Whites rebellions in the north and in the south untill the WWI armistice, since the western allies would support after all the fighters against the Germans, and also since most of the Whites are nationalists and we can suppose that in many situation they would fight first against the German Occupation before fighting against Reds, Blacks and Green Russians peasants which have currently the same hobby.
- no left SR rebellion and less (or later) Bolchevik power centralization/repression
- Moscow and Petrograd under german occupation before the end of the year
- a WWI armistice earlier or later ? (would Germany loose earlier in the West because it had to spread more troops in the east to occupy all Russia till at least Petrograd and Moscow, or later because "total" victory in the east would improve their NM and their will to resist the western Allies on the Rhin river ?).
- an early 1919 situation were the Reds would have to follow the German retreat after the armistice from the Volga or Ural to Poland, and were the German and Allies try to set some Whites controls in the Russian towns - if Reds and black partizans don't hold it before - waiting for the Red Army arriving from the East.
- during 1919, we could expect the Red army to be a much more serious and earlier menace for Romania, Poland, Caucasus, Baltic or Finland states.

It would be an RCW, for sure, but not the one we are used to play... it would include a possible first step of the "World Revolution" in east Europe.

Somehow the Drang Nach Westen scenario ? :-)

[ERISS]

I don't think assassination of Lenin in july-august 1918 would really change a lot's of things in the military aspects of the RCW afterwards, Note also that the cult of personnality about Lenin cames only after this assination attempt.

It could change much, as Lenin was a great writer who told what people want to hear, and his cult of personnality had improve the listening (many Trotsky propaganda came from the voice of Lenin too).
Without Lenin, much more people would join the Greens or Ana, so it could change the war.

I think the most interesting alternative history point would be earlier : What if the Sovnarkom (without Lenin or keeped in the minority) did NOT sign the treaty of Brest-litovsk in march 1918.
No treaty would means :
- a WWI armistice earlier or later ? (would Germany loose earlier in the West because it had to spread more troops in the east to occupy all Russia till at least Petrograd and Moscow, or later because "total" victory in the east would improve their NM and their will to resist the western Allies on the Rhin river ?).
It would be an RCW, for sure, but not the one we are used to play... it would include a possible first step of the "World Revolution" in east Europe.
Somehow the Drang Nach Westen scenario ? :-)

The more the war lasts long for Germany, the more the revolution would succeed here, with more discontents and less troops to counter it.
The scenario would be better than Drang Nach, for it would be a more probably historical what-if.

[Taillebois]

Well, well, well. I read the encyclopedia article - didn't know anything about the Czechs.

On some village war memorials in England you see in addition to the usual "Fell in the Great War 1914-1918" sometimes 1914-1919 or 1914-1920 - I guess this depends on whether that village had its boys in Russia or Palestine. In WW1 regiments were recruited by county and often town and they would serve in the same regiment as "lads" together - so sometimes in a big battle a small village would lose almost all its young men in a single day. In WW2 this was changed to prevent such a devastating effect on a village recurring.

Anyway, as someone said:

"Archduke Franz Ferdinand found alive - World War One all a mistake."

[andatiep]

"Archduke Franz Ferdinand found alive - World War One all a mistake."