Unifying Germany under Austria

[Kensai]

Have you ever thought what would happen if Germany was united under Austria instead of Prussia? Now is your chance. Download the mod and check it out for yourself!

I need your input and suggestions to better trim this. In my opinion, if Austria pulls this trick out it can really dominate the world arena and this is reflected in the game (Prussia knocked out and Austria achieving a huge amount of its goals), but it could also make for a very interesting scenario of the whole world against Germany. I will add further events if you think this will help (ie bad relations with the rest of major nations, especially Russia and Great Britain, an automatic state of war until AUS can bounce them for some years, etc).

[loki100]

Here's some musings.

I think its worth thinking about what an Austrian victory would mean. Lets assume its comprehensive, so I'd guess a return of Silesia. I've never been convinced with the Victoria 1/2 model of absorbing the South German Federation. Closer union and alliance with Austria yes, but I'd suggest there is no reason to think that Saxony and Bavaria would cease to exist.

In terms of governance, I would suggest a very reactionary political structure, even more so than Wilhelmine Germany. Not sure that an Austrian-Catholic dominated Germany would have had the confidence of Bismarck's gamble about semi-legalising Social Democracy. In turn, that could set off a very revolutionary wave, re-uniting the pre-48 alliance of radicals and nationalists.

To that, my guess is it would make the Austrian empire even more German, so storing up problems with Hungary and the Slavic nations?

So I sort of wonder if this would see an Austria not much stronger than in our reality, beset by a host of troubles and trying to keep the spirit of the Congress of Vienna alive in the lands it ruled? At least as plausible as its victory simply replacing the Prussian dynamics within the Germany that emerged in our time line.

[Kensai]

The thing is, there is no distinct way to portray a federation or confederation in the game. It has to be done under a certain state and imagine it is a federation. Actually, Prime Minister Schwarzenberg (the Austrian PM who starts the game in Austria) had in real life very clear ideas regarding an Austrian-dominated loose Germany under the Habsburgs. It was essentially the return of the Holy Roman Empire which was dissolved by force only some 50 years earlier under Francis I.

What currently worries me is not the historical implications... indeed everyone in Europe, including Napoleon of France, were expecting Austria to win the 1866 war. So I think it is valid to believe that Austria would be the premium nation to lead a new kind of federation of the German states IF it had won the confrontation. What I worry is the game balancing. By forcing annexation of Prussia we have an economic juggernaut of Germany (under Austria). Of course the force and structure pool remain the same so in the long run Austria might actually be in a disadvantage, but I should probably author events to abstract further difficulties (for example a Compromise not done in 1867, thus Hungarian unrest... a Prussian permanent antagonistic unrest in their lands... major powers upset and uniting to defeat Austria, etc). I am already considering the options.

Otherwise by 1870 the Austrian could be reaching maximum score and finish the game with a major victory.

[epaminondas]

Is it actually necessary to annex Prussia? That would have been an awfully big fish for Austria to swallow and I don't see anything in the historical literature that encourages a belief that that was Austria's intention. Could you not script a kind of Austrian hegemony, with some territorial occupation and a series of events rendering Prussia more or less compliant over the period to 1870? That way you could both restrict Austria's objective count and open up a range of possibilities for the inevitable Franco-German confrontation.

[loki100]

Is it actually necessary to annex Prussia?

thats my question really. I don't see this even in the case of a massive Austrian victory. I know what you mean about a HRE style confederation (could this not be scripted by defense pacts etc?), but I don't believe that Austria could (or would have wanted?) the sort of unitary Germany that Prussia was aiming for.

And I'm not sure that the world would be so offended. France obviously at the return of the old Hapsburg enemy and Italy at the threat of the reversal of the gains of 1859 and that presumably it is on the losing side in this war (and historically 'lost' its share of the 1866 war). But I can't see GB being worried (not least this Austria is still a South, not a north European power). Russia might welcome it as a victory for the old order of things, certainly a revived Austria is no more of a threat than a unified Germany was and they managed to live happily with that up to 1908 or so.

[Kensai]

I entertain the idea of keeping Prussia intact, although losing their Napoleonic gains after a 1866 defeat with Austria, essentially everything West of Brandenburg and possibly Silesia. This might be a sound alternative, especially if the balancing thing becomes critical as I play on.

On the other hand, as I said before, the game is not able to abstract "loose federations" or "puppets", so I have to go with the annexation script command. It is simply a technical solution. You have to think that this is not exactly annexation, but Austria taking the reins of running the whole Germany show, especially the always important foreign policy. Germans back in the day cared mostly about having a unified German-speaking state and a customs unity. But they were not eager to unify under a single master unless there was a major upheaval. This came in 1866 and 1870 with the two impressive Prussian victories. So, it is not entirely impossible for Austria to be the unifying protagonist if it manages first to create a federation with the Catholic German states of the South and then, by decisively beating Prussia, achieving unification, or if you like... a new German Federation under Emperor Franz-Josef.

I really want first to explore the full-blown German Unification and see how it goes. I am planning for destabilization events for sure, but I think they should mostly be in the direction of the non-German annexes of Austria (Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks, Croatians, etc). And of course I can set the Prussians to be really unhappy by this new deal. These things can be abstracted with high militancy and low contentment in certain regions, rebellious loyalties, perhaps some spawned revolting armies, major powers frowning upon these developments (I like especially a continental block of France-Italy-Russia to "contain" the Germans... yeah, perhaps the British would not care unless they see Austria heading for colonies).

But do not worry, in the long term I plan to provide for branching decisional events where the player decides what kind of unification wants to follow. Remember, this is a what if and in the end, it is the players that should decide how the world will be shaped. I shall simply make sure I put all the necessary pragmatic reaction events to up the challenge and simulate a potential reaction by the new order.

[Christophe.Barot]

As I told in an other thread,
[color="#40E0D0"]http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?32665-Kensai-s-Gro%DFdeutschland-Mod[/color]

the really historical (I mean historically plausible) alternatives to historical (Prussian Germany) are twofold

a) realistic Habsburg "German Empire" confederation, respecting princes : that is except for swap Silesia/Venetia (Lombardy is already supposed Italy's), and possible Prussian western provinces losses to other allies (and France, price of her neutrality) that is Bavaria Hessen and Hannover are likely beneficiaries, you have the following pattern, in game system terms :

customs union, permanent alliance, and set AI diplobias of german Austrian allies to maximum for alliance and support, zero to CB and war, and as an addition make a maximium of them playable if you want have them really controlled, but do not annex them - then balance is preserved and this is a rather historical option (this one planned by Napoleon III and I believe Franz Josef, except that actually, the preferred scheme (he had many) of Napoleon was more favourable to Prussia, who lost a few western provinces and Silesia BUT annexed Hannover in compensation (which was both a Napoleonic proposal tradition, and likely not to be of Austria taste

b) Pangermanist Groszdeutschland : if you want to be realistic, have Austrian leaders moved and changed by other leaders (some research to make, it's alternative history). In this alternative, German people overthrew princes in a popular therefore revolutionary move (probably with support of far right upper classes representatives (Nobility, big Industrial) who found useful to deflect German feeliongs and unrest towards national rather than social revolution (sounds familiar to you ? in other circulmstances ?)

THEN the new Greater Germany (it is imho a plausible, as internally consistant, albeit unlikely, course) is neither Prussian nor Austrian :
- Whole Prussia is in (They won't ask Poles their opinion), Sleswig is,
- minor Germans all are,
- Bohemia is in (historically + strong 1/3d German minority - Czech want to be out at all costs, but their opinion is not and will not be solicited, they were in the HRE, this is an exacerbated German nationalist state, pupular passions, you see, wacht am Rhein, was is die deutsche vaterland and so on .)
- so is Slovenia-Croatia, with less problems (alternatives are Italy or hungary, no more desirable)
- and so Cisleithania is in, with reservations for Poland-Galicia - you can choose any option you want, transfer to Hungary, keep the whole, share with Hungary (having her independant is not an option, there would be irredentism, so it is german , Hungarian, or Russians will annex it which is, from a german nationalist point of view, untolerable)

Hungary is out (no way Hungarians would have accepted a second rate situation in an ethnic german nationalist run Empire

still they are good frinds of the new united germany (watch your hordes, we'll watch ours)

geographically, Hitler third reich is very close (surprise surprise), and so is ideologically - except for murderous antisemitism (while ... if ultranationalism gets loose ... it's not specific to germany, watch the Russian extreme right, or even the Affaire dreyfus) - here too, logical, Nazism takes root in an history and a preexisting ideology ...

this is 1848 success, with an even more acute and agressive nationalism (it is later in the century)

new state has common interests with Hungary (is a buffer), terrible relations with France (nationalism is exacerbated, getting Alsace Lorraine is a most important popular demand, nationalism has been exacerbated in full peace, no conservatism there acting as a brake - or they got it, and the historical revanche feeling drives France, same trend) and Italy (ditto, same Italian irredentism)
with Britain, it depends on colonialism and naval policy, plus balance
with Russia it is more subtle, on one side Russians don't like the way Czech and Croatians are treated, on the other they care less (far away and Catholics , not Orthodox, it martters a lot), the big frictions are with Hungary, balkans
so same german/ Hungary-Russia problematics than German/Austria-Hungary - Russia, Bismarck can rest in peace

so, all in all the greater germany will look a lot like the cerntral powers, a german hungarian alliance, with a minor partner, but a displacement of center of gravity (germany annexed Austria, not Hungary), even if capital is Vienna and not Berlin, for a centralized state it changes little, and a German leader of Austrian ascent can lead a very agressive and pangermanist german policy, you see ... one has seen such things happen ...


this is a plausible outcome (make AiBias and playability provisios for coordinating with Hungary, set Hungary goals closely too ..) too, while less likely than the Habsburg victory one

both have the advantage of allowing a game with Balance of power (OK, germany ios WAY more powerful with Austria+Bohemia but this remains manageable - central powers have the SAME global oôwer, just more efficiency)

as I told, your unitarian unified great germany is an interesting scenario BUT seems to me, AFTER analysis, least plausible, not that much because it has to overcome non german nationalistic feelings (expect have to crush Hungarians again, this time without Paskievitch help) but because it has to overcome Franz Josef and conservative feelings, which is imho a bit tougher (they're the ruling class you know)

still, your choice, and i know our limitations - ability to have common peaces and managing allainces (terms for allied gains, control of allied forces, at least mionors, is in top of my wishglist .. a far prospect)

cheers

[Kensai]

Thanks, taking everything into consideration. But it is hard without the necessary engine abstractions. For example the game engine does not have an abstraction for "puppet" states, which would have been the ideal situation.

[Christophe.Barot]

I know that, but I guess that, until/unless Pocus and PhilThib have much scarce time for improving the code, it is a wishlist, and we have to do with scripts as a downgraded solution - AGEOD survival is at price of selling new games - updating improving old ones for free , well, can't be a priority, even if they (it's their quality brandmark and show of historical gaming dedication) take pride to ensure a follow up

I have a few wishes, and the "minor ally" is a major one ... but guess work on code has too much a cost right now as they are prioritary on Espana, ACWII, or Roman parthia aftersale job

[sagji]

Historically the German minors were opposed to being unified with Hungary, and Hungary was opposed to being unified with German minors.
The consequence is that Austrian attempts to unify with Germany would lead to disunification with Hungary.
The first stage of disunification was the Dual Monarchy. Until this occurs I don't think Austria can add any German minors. However external factors such as French aggression or threat could drive the minors into Austria.
Austrian unification or just effeorts towards unification run the risk of accelerating disunification - resulting more extreme stages.

Stage Two - "personal union" Austria and Hungary split into two independent states that happen to have the same ruler. In game terms it becomes two playable nations played by the same person. Relations are set at 100 and they have a defensive treaty and a commercial treaty.

Stage Three - "disunion". Hungary becomes a fully independent state with a different ruler. In game terms Hungary is played by a different player or becomes non-playable, relations drop to 25 and the defensive treaty gets removed.

[Kensai]

But the compromise of 1867 happened because the Austrians had just lost the German war. The story of unification of Germany under Austria can only play out (and this is something already seen in my proposed mod) IF Austria defeats Prussia in a convincing way. In this case, I rather doubt Franz-Josef will be any interested into submitting to the Hungarian demands, which in real life happened because he was at the brink of losing the whole country after the shock of the defeat. The compromise was the result, not the precondition for Austria's Germanic course.

However, I do agree that if unification happens and the player (as per default) does not allow for the independence of Hungary (in game terms it could be a decision event to allow Hungary and other East European nations to form), then a serious drop of contentment together with rebel loyalties should appear in those territories. But the plan to have a "Großösterreich" supposedly was there and real (sorry, this article is only in German).

[Christophe.Barot]

Hi

in my reading, pleas of Hungarians to have equal say with "Germans" in the Empire were permanent (1848, dual compromise and so on) and would have stayed so until satisfied (with loyalty problems incurring) anyway
but when Prussian war was lost, Franz-Josef had to give up as he needed their active loyalty and not reluctant submission (in game terms way less taxes and recruitments for "reluctant", but I don't know to model it)

then the former subjects became harsher masters than former german masters
- for they had a revanche to take
- they were not used to be masters
- they had a more backward/feudal structure (Bohemia and Vienna were as modern as, say Berlin, Rhenania, London, Paris)
- they were way more homogenous - see the conservative/socialist/liberals and German/Slavs oppositions in Austrian parliament compared to the Hungarian Nobility-dominated "Diet"

for all those reasons, it was from then on more Hungary than Austria which dictated the agenda - as expectable it was more agressive towards Slavs, Balkan, and more hostile to Russia, less interested in germany (plus the de facto situation had changed for good), so prone to seek support in Germany

[Christophe.Barot]

[quote="Kensai"]But the compromise of 1867 happened. The story of unification of Germany under Austria can only play out (and this is something already seen in my proposed mod) IF Austria defeats Prussia in a convincing way.
However, I do agree that if unification happens and the player (as per default) does not allow for the independence of Hungary (in game terms it could be a decision event to allow Hungary and other East European nations to form), then a serious drop of contentment together with rebel loyalties should appear in those territories.[quote]

fully agree it SHOULD be a decision of player (actually, I think we should make, when trained enough, most turning points and crisis [color="#40E0D0"]conditional to player decisions[/color] - more rewarding and appreciated by the player) of course, with strongest penalties for disregarding the constraints which were in the 19th situation (internal, international)

Imho, most likely course is victorious Austria forming a german Confederation, keeping his hereditary lands in order, and a loose control (but strong alliance - probably a trade union too) with german minors (doubt Prussia would have sincerely accepted) but it's up to your choice of what you want to simulate

[Christophe.Barot]

extremely interesting article, thanks :

still was just a plan imho, and I am not sure how difficulties were accounted for

had Austria won, there would have been two difficulties

a) persuade allies to let themselves annexed (in game terms, as i don't think such radical step was in the plan, which makes - degree of autonomy -a big difference)
b) persuade Allogenous (Hungarians, but also Italians, Rumanians and all Slavs) to stay, and moreover, to fight decently and to work/pay taxes with non degraded productivity

as I see it, the Schwarzenberg plan could have worked, but with extreme tension in non German hereditary lands - basically Schwarzenberg was a German with small or little more undertanding of non German feelings than, let's say Windischgraetz, or radetzky ..

[sagji]

The compromise happened at that point as an indirect effect of loosing the war quickly. This left Austria in an unstable state and to stabilize the country needed Hungarian support and the compromise was the cost of getting that support.

In another situation the compromise could be the cost of getting Hungarian acceptance of Austrian adsorbing German states - not diluting Hungarian in a growing sea of Germanic influence, and at the same time removing Hungarian influence from the Germanic union which is required by the German Minor States as their price of being adsorbed.

The player should not always get the option to split Hungary off. Sometimes player actions and consequences should result in it never being offered as an option (insufficient disunity), and other times disunity would be so high that the split is forced upon the player.

[loki100]

Kensai

just to chuck in my 2 euros again. I think there is a difference between doing a mod (ie its your business what you set up) and trying to improve on (or correct) gaps in the existing events and so on. In the latter case, its important that the version offered is realistic. So these comments are offered from that perspective.

I don't pretend any expertise in internal Austrian politics in this era so this is opinion not based on particular understanding. My view is there was a strong tendency in German thinking in this era that had a very racial element, with the Hungarians assigned the role of noble, if rather primitive, allies and the slavs as ungrateful wretches. This wasn't a left/right thing, read, for example, Engels's newspaper articles and letters about the events of 1848-9, the underlying attitudes would not have been out of place in a much fouler regime the best part of a century later.

So its about the choice between a German-Austria or German-Hungarian Austria. If Austria had won in 1867, then regardless of territory, it would have forced a choice as much as the real outcome did. I think sagji is right, the dual monarchy was seen as the best of worst choices (the worst presumably being Hungary making a bid for independence). But in victory Austria would have had problems that Prussian didn't. If it absorbed S Germany, then the price of those states would have been a German empire, and the consequence would have been a return of the Hungarian independence mood. If Austria had tried to placate the Hungarians it would have set off problems with its new German acquisitions.

I think the German focus was the more likely, so that means scripting in a pretty massive revolt risk into Hungary and the Slav provinces.

While at it - I'm still not convinced that an Austrian victory would have convinced Saxony and Bavaria to cease to exist. I realise the limits of the game engine, but I think total absorption gives Austria too much.

In effect, what I think I'm saying is Austria was damned when it lost and would have faced equal (if different) problems if it had won.

[Christophe.Barot]

Loki - I guess we have close readings and you set problematics rather right - I totally concur to what you say

as a realistic outcome annexation of legitimate and allied rulers was uncompatible with Habsburg principles, in my reading

nationalistic movements, very strong, popular, were uncompatible between them, even if liberals - each nationalism opposed both conservatism and to all other nationalisms (see "die Wacht am Rhein" and German reaction which happened because french liberals in 1848 ..just wanted to annex (German) left bank of Rhine)
- even convincing the King of Prussia to accept unification, though at profit of Prussia, was no mean feat from Bismarck - initially, Wilhelm I did not want to be a (supposed powerless and symbolic) Emperor, but wanted to stay King of Prussia (not Germany) with all powers ... there was an evolution, even from Bismarck (who was initially a Prussian, not German fierce nationalist - and reactionnary)

so a (german) nationalistic austria was de facto uncompatible with the least loyalty of hungarian, czech, Poles and so on .. nationalists too

therefore I come to conclude that unification of germany (under Austria that is) was uncompatible with both existance/survival of Austria (as a more or less unitarian rule that is) and Habsburg rule (which were way more adverse/allergic to change, nationalism, and rejection of "legitimate rule" of their peers than even Wilhelm I, who shared those feelings)

so we have 3 possible outcomes, from a German point of view, or 4, but 4th seems to me rather "theorical" :

-a) unitarian Germany but excluding Habsburg German lands, more or less unitarian Austria (-Hungary) - was the historical outcome, Austria survives (as Austria-Hungary) as a second of [color="#000000"]united (Prussian) Germany[/color]


- b) unitarian Austria (Hungary or not, may be a bit more unitary) with non united germany, and smaller princes (Brandenburg Hohenzollern inside or not) as Austrian satelites - that was tha Habsburg goal, survival of Austria with ALL their lands, and close alliance with ALL german princes I believe it would have been the historical outcome of a [color="#FF0000"]victorious Austria[/color] able to resist to French demands (else say goodbye to Hannover rule (planned to compensate prussia for Silesia and Rhenan provinces) and Rhine left bank- better a quick victory, and some British or Russian (ahem) backing)

-c) unitarian Germany including all german Habsburg lands with Bohemia (Czech) included, perhaps even galicia but excluding Hungary - the [color="#DAA520"]pangermanist dream [/color]- makes sense and possible solution (Czech and possibly Poles have to be held tight, but this is still feasible, no longer or more difficult with Hungarians too- just too big) but uncompatible with Habsburg rule
so question is - why would victorious Habsburg have to face overthrown by popular nationalist German movement and lose ? in this case, a unitarian Great germany (Groszdeutschland) exists, with possibly/likely Hungary as a second. (Hungary and Greater germany may have in common a Russian rivalry, making them closer, else Greater germany may be more indifferent to balkans, concentrate on France (Alsace/Lorraine) and Italy (Trent, Istria, possible Italian lands) rivalry

- d) unitarian Austria with all of Germany and Hungary inside / Prussia less Silesia may be in or out (likely out) - problems of balance are obvious, but torougher analysis makes me believe it is unlikely

reason : nobody wants it :
- German princes do not want (they won a war against Prussia together, not to suicide and disappear like powerless Mahradjah and let a victorious ally annex them)
- Hungarians do not want it (for nothing in the hell, being under rule of Germans of Austria and a traditional ruler is hard, under 80 million of germans unsufferable - Hungarians are not germans)
- Czech and other Poles, Slovaks, Rumanians, Croatians do not want it, exactly like Hungarians or worse, for same reasons, but most are even closer
- Habsburg do not want it, they do not want to deprive allies from their legitime rights and destroy the principle of legitimacy they stand for
- I believe even Germans do not want it - all those people neither speak German, nor are part of historical German lands - popular nationalism (not imperialism) was at basis a desire to be together (even against one's will like Sleswig Danes or Alsacians Lorrains) under either language or common history criteria, as well as excluding foreign elements - Hitler lied saying "I don't want Czech in my Reich", but 19th German (popular) nationalists probably were more sincere not wanting Hungarians in it, only Habsburg wanted them in, but they wanted Princes out, a confederation (allies and trade union area) and they are supposedly dispatched. Even Hitler satelized Hungary, did not annex it

and of course
- Prussians (not people, but all nobles and staff) did not want it (guess why )
- Russians did not want it (twice or threefold, for balance, Slavic/German rivalry and were on Prussian side)
- French did not want it (gains were expected plus balance, rivalry) and were ready to move had war lasted as expected
- Even British were not favorable (see balance of power, a Greater germany would have been a tad too much)

so, as nobody wanted it in my reading, could have it happen at all ?

Kensai, I guess your exploration is much interesting, but , as told Loki, the 4th outcome is both very unlikely (verging the impossible) and well, your choice of simulation mod and totally up to you

for my part I gratefully will take all the discussions we had, and intend to add to my present "turning points" program, "an hypothesis b)" in case of Austrian victory which (diplo AIbias, relations, treaties, loyalty, + territorial shifts - Silesia, Saarland, Venetia) looks very feasible to script in the present state of PON, let' s say, if Austrians take both Berlin (Brandeburg) and both Silesian provinces

cheers and go on this very interesting exploration - fed my thinking of alternative outcome a lot

[Kensai]

Guys, it's definitely an explorative mod but if you think there are some realistic aspects feel free to fork them for further elaboration. Indeed, they could be used for further improvement of the vanilla events.

Regarding Austria's win in 1867, we are all speculating here as we cannot possibly know "what would have happened". What is a fact, though, is that Franz Josef was not keen to compromise. Indeed he would have been forced to do that some time during his long reign, but definitely not the year of his glorious victory or too soon after. After all, if the mod is completed, I intend to add a huge rebellious spirit for Hungary and the rest of the non-Germanic territories, so if the player does not allow them their complete freedom, they will eventually be close to ungovernable. The most important aspect, however, is to give a mod that players will have fun to continue after they unify Germany under Austria, thus balance is of outmost importance. I certainly have to think of ways to make a huge Austrian Empire challenging to handle, even if I have to think of a couple of events that might sound unrealistic at first. I will do my best to put the necessary flavor (pictures, descriptions) so they can be accepted.

Still, I need to find some time to study decisional events but currently real life keeps me busy.

[Kensai]

Added new text-images to the mod (not uploaded yet). With this done, I only need to write the decisional tree now for the potential unification alternatives.

[Kensai]

Version 1 of the Mod is released guys. Give it a try. I am open to constructive criticism on how to improve this. Future work could run in the following directions:

• Place extra alternate reality events to portray challenging scenarios according to the unification decision of the player.
• Improve the situation of the released non-Germanic nations from Austria. Silence events that might not make sense and fire later later in the game.
• Add extra events to further balance the iter up to Austria's attempt to unify Germany.

[PrinzHeinrich]

Hello, is a patch in work concerning the Großdeutschland solution and when will the patch be published?

[Kensai]

Why would you need a patch? Did you find a bug? It should be working fine in its core. Regarding future work, I need some more time, I work on different projects right now.