Childress
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Assymetrical casualties

Sat May 05, 2007 12:34 am

Terrific and deep, if somewhat overwhelming, game, AGEOD.
But, tinkering around, I've noticed that some battles yield curious results in which one force inflicts 2x, 3x, 10x or even more casualties than the other side. Were these crushing defeats really typical in the Civil War during a period when the defence began its ascendancy? If I recall my history, the usual statistical outcomes ranged from grindingly inconclusive to marginal. Fredericksburg, where the Feds suffered twice the casualties, was a notable exception. Thoughts?

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DON
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Sat May 05, 2007 1:41 am

I have noticed this also. The battle calculations do seem to need some tinkering in order to lessen the frequency of such lop-sided results.

Wilhammer
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Sat May 05, 2007 1:51 am

Agreed.

I wonder if the fatigue model needs tweaking - one thing that contributes to these enormous casualties is the number of days of combat in a two week turn.


Everyone seems to be willing to fight to the death; the propensity to detach (withdraw) from combat should go up over time, and the ability to stay engaged should go down.

The determination to stay in battle seems to be too long - historically, with a few outliers, the results were one side left the field, one was too exhausted to pursue, everyone was too disorganized to fight effectively, and the losses were proportionally equal.

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However, we gamers are far more aggressive and have far too much knowledge, resulting in an increased tempo of combat and the deployment of massive forces.

Let's say 1000 players are fighting the whole Civil War, and each has roughly the same number of battles as the real war (I bet its more like double that), then we have 1000 TIMES more possibilities than was ever realized in the Real War, which could result in an overexposure of statistical outliers.

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Queeg
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Sat May 05, 2007 2:32 am

It comes, I think, from the AI being too willing to fight to the death. These lopsided battles are almost always the third or fourth battle in a series, when one side is low on cohesion, morale and supply.

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Spharv2
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Sat May 05, 2007 3:15 am

Check out army organization in the AI force before you go into battle, chances are, in those lopsided battles, the AI is just packing units under generals without regards to the army structure. This creates large command penalties for them. Fortunately, this issue and the processing time are both being worked on...or they will be once you guys stop finding things the beta team missed when we were testing. :innocent: :bonk:

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Hidde
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Sat May 05, 2007 9:47 am

..almost always the third or fourth battle in a series,..

A lot , if not most, of the battles in my games have been like that. It's like The Seven Days all the time. To make it more belivable I look at them like phases of the same battle.
If it leads to unrealistic discrepancies in the number of causalties I find that a huge problem. One of the main reasons I passed on "that other CW-game" was the disscusions over there on that very thing.
Also, there is a screenshot in another thread showing 66000 casualties for the union. I think that sort of numbers should just not happen, no matter what. I like to be able to change history but I want to do it within a realistic framework.
ps- how do I get that litle arrow to show with a quote?
ps2- To the Gates of Richmond by Stephen W. Sears is a great book about the Peninsula campaign.

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marecone
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Sat May 05, 2007 10:04 am

Spharv2 wrote:Check out army organization in the AI force before you go into battle, chances are, in those lopsided battles, the AI is just packing units under generals without regards to the army structure. This creates large command penalties for them. Fortunately, this issue and the processing time are both being worked on...or they will be once you guys stop finding things the beta team missed when we were testing. :innocent: :bonk:


Yap, this is is indeed the case. After miss AI learns how to use HQ's I strongly belive that battle results will change drasticaly.
Forrest said something about killing a Yankee for each of his horses that they shot. In the last days of the war, Forrest had killed 30 of the enemy and had 30 horses shot from under him. In a brief but savage conflict, a Yankee soldier "saw glory for himself" with an opportunity to kill the famous Confederate General... Forrest killed the fellow. Making 31 Yankees personally killed, and 30 horses lost...

He remarked, "I ended the war a horse ahead."

Childress
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Sat May 05, 2007 2:32 pm

Here's a web site with the relevant stats:
http://americancivilwar.com/cwstats.html

One remarks that
1- Civil War battles were remarkably bloody.
2- Casualties figures tended to run relatively even on both sides despite often huge force discrepancies.
3- When there were lop-sided outcomes, as in Grant's western campaign, it was due to massive prisoner taking. I don't believe this is reflected in AACW on such a scale.

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Chamberlain
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Sat May 05, 2007 3:14 pm

Great web site Childress

Thanks for the link

Chamberlain

mayonaise
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Sat May 05, 2007 3:17 pm

I know if you nitpick the statistics it seems skewed, but if you ignore that and look at it in just a general gameplay sense, i think it all works out pretty realistically-- and bottom line i think that is the most important thing.

For example, I often got frustrated with massive casualties that would see entire divisions disappear, but then I just thought of it as the incredible strain that battle put on the command structure. After major battles, both sides often had to retreat, regroup, and refit. This is exactly what that forces you to do. So generally, i pay very little attention to the numbers. Its really only cosmetic.

Also, losses could get quite extreme. While we think of the war in battles, remember these are two week stretches. I don't have any numbers off the top of my head, but the losses in the 3 days at gettysburg and all actions surrounding it must have been close to 20-25k per side. The seven days battle would have been quite high as well. Just a thought.

Childress
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Sat May 05, 2007 3:30 pm

*The point being, IMO, that AACW battles in their decisiveness tend toward the Napoleonic campaigns of maneuver in character.

*The POW thing is a a sticky issue since there were two regimes in force during the Civil War; an early parole system followed by the prison camp system. I think this element should have been left abstracted and folded into the CRT.

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