Another Supply question, or 10

[sbr]

Ok not so much a question as a validation that I know how it works.

First off let's make sure this is right:

1. The host clicks 'End of Turn'
2. The 3 phase Supply Distribution Phase starts
3. Units take supply from nearby sources
4. Day 1 of 15 and unit movement

So assuming that is correct, there is no way that the 2 supply wagons for this 2-division Rebel Corps in Paducah will be able to draw supply next turn, right? I cut my picture off, I have 100% control in both regions adjacent to Paducah.



The harbor is blockaded, all river regions have 4+ elements so he can't move across the river and I have 100% control of the 2 adjacent land regions. Now assuming the worst case for me, that Breckinridge was fully supplied when Thomas moved into Graves, KY last turn:

1. Breckinridge's wagons drew enough supply to be at 80 supply each.
2. Breckinridge's 2 divisions each pulled ~60 supply (an average of what my divisions need per turn) from the wagons.
3. This leaves the divisions fully supplied, with 2 turns of supply, but the wagons at ~20/80.
4. The wagons won't be able to get any supply next turn; the divisions will take what the wagons have left and use ~30 of their supply leaving them at ~50/80 supply.
5. Next turn both divisions are at 20/80 supply, which is short of what they need.
6. Third turn both divisions are at -10/80 supply.

At what point will I see a combat penalty for the Rebels?
At what point would they start losing strength?
How long would it take to starve them out?

Thanks in advance to anyone who made it through the whole post.

[Cromagnonman]

Not sure whether your ships need to be in Off posture to block supply; they do need to be if you want him to not escape.

Like you said, he should lose 120 supply per turn. His wagons should hold 160 total, plus 240 carried by his troops, for 300 total. He should be okay next two turns, partially unsup on the 3rd, and completely unsup on the 4th. I don't know exactly how long he'll take to starve, but he should start taking combat penalties (if for nothing else than low cohesion) on the third turn. Follow his power levels- once they start to drop, you're probably fine to attack. If you starve him out instead of attacking, his starved leaders (Breckenridge & Co) will be gone forever.

Don't forget Paducah will produce supplies, but probably far below his needs.

[Ol' Choctaw]

Interesting problem.

Can I ask if it is SP or PBM?

Is Paducah a depot, and if so what were its levels of stock before being cut off?

Did the town produce any supply of its own?

[Pocus]

Should be ok yes. You don't need to be in offensive to blockade. Besieged town only produce meager supply, but he still control the countryscape, so can pillage it for an extra turn of supply (done automatically).

[Ace]

Dont underestimate CSA options. He can manually supply his troops by supply wagons slipping through your lines. You can prevent it by putting Grant and Thomas on offensive postures, but you risk battle with his reliefe force (I suppose he has one), while on offensive posture (no defensive bonuses and lower combat stats). So, it is up to you, do you feel confident you could wait, or go for a fast kill.

[sbr]

Interesting problem.

Can I ask if it is SP or PBM?

Is Paducah a depot, and if so what were its levels of stock before being cut off?

Did the town produce any supply of its own?

This is a PBM game. I don't think he comes to these forums. You better not be reading this Zoidberg.

Paducah is not a Depot, just a level 1 town. Breckinridge has been sitting there for quite a while so I have no idea how much supply was there before I cut it off. There shouldn't be much because the level 1 town doesn't draw supplies, only the wagons do, right?

[sbr]

Should be ok yes. You don't need to be in offensive to blockade. Besieged town only produce meager supply, but he still control the countryscape, so can pillage it for an extra turn of supply (done automatically).

Ah, I forgot about foraging. Darn it.

Dont underestimate CSA options. He can manually supply his troops by supply wagons slipping through your lines. You can prevent it by putting Grant and Thomas on offensive postures, but you risk battle with his reliefe force (I suppose he has one), while on offensive posture (no defensive bonuses and lower combat stats). So, it is up to you, do you feel confident you could wait, or go for a fast kill.

He definitely has units to try and relieve Breckinridge. He has at least 12 divisions in the Paducah/Henry&Donaldson/Nashville area. I have about 18 in the same area. He is a good player, at least better than me, and I can't imagine he will let those divisions starve to death but he would likely have to give up Henry&Donaldson or Nashville to save them. Should be interesting.

[Jim-NC]

Not sure whether your ships need to be in Off posture to block supply; they do need to be if you want him to not escape.

Like you said, he should lose 120 supply per turn. His wagons should hold 160 total, plus 240 carried by his troops, for 300 total. He should be okay next two turns, partially unsup on the 3rd, and completely unsup on the 4th. I don't know exactly how long he'll take to starve, but he should start taking combat penalties (if for nothing else than low cohesion) on the third turn. Follow his power levels- once they start to drop, you're probably fine to attack. If you starve him out instead of attacking, his starved leaders (Breckenridge & Co) will be gone forever.

Don't forget Paducah will produce supplies, but probably far below his needs.

Don't forget about the supply filter. It will clue you in to his general level of supply. Once he has red dots under the picture, you know he is below 25% of his carrying ability. At 300 points, when it turns red, he will have less than 80 supply points left. There is not a lot of supply in the town (in your picture, there was no barrels or cannonballs in the town). Depending on the level of industry, Paducah can make 20ish-60ish supply per turn. This can allow him to remain for probably an extra turn before taking losses.

[sbr]

Thanks for all the input so far, the game slowed down quite a bit the last few days so we haven't moved much from this point.

Another question. At what point does a unit pillage/forage? The first turn they can't pull FULL supply from a source? The first turn they can't pull ANY supply from a source?