TXcavalier wrote:You had three armies sitting and waiting right where the B.E.F. landed? Did he move his fleet into the mines off the coast, and not unload right away?
My apparent prescience is simply a matter of logical deductive reasoning:
1) The British joined the war in late sept.
2) By late oct. still no sign of the BEF on the WF... I start to get suspicious
3) A look at the Mediterranean, with fog of war, reveals lots of blue and green dots sitting on Malta. I send a TB to check it out and find transports there.
4) At this point you calculate the possible destinations (a process which I have been recording in my AAR)
A) The only possible landing site
s that do not involve invading neutral countries are along the Dalmatian coast or the Ottoman Empire (and they only just joined the war in late December).
B) He waited so long I was leaning towards the Ottoman option but I would be foolish not to guard against a possible invasion on the Dalmatian coast. Then it is a case of sending armies from other fronts to guard the most logical landing sites. Here is my analysis below:
My forces were actually not waiting
in Cattaro for the invasion. I was in the process of moving an army there because it seemed the most likely place for an invasion due to the proximity to the Serbian army. If he had moved more quickly he could have landed on the beaches unopposed just one turn earlier, although a break out would still have been difficult. You can see from the picture below that my armies were still in the process of moving to Cattaro the previous turn... note I was also guarding against landings further up the coast by having a force on the rail line at Mostar and another back at Sarajevo. Here is the pic from the previous turn...
I have been reading Projekt Pasha's insightful AAR on the Paradox forum. He went through the same logical process... he spotted lots of blue and green dots in Alexandria... he calculated the most likely landing place for the Brits to be Tripoli. He guessed correctly.
This decision to guard against an invasion on the south coast has cost me the initiative on my two main fronts. Like everything it was a decision to carefully balance risk against potential loss or gain. As a result you will see from my AAR that my stalled assault on Brest Litovsk has turned into a full scale retreat. I wasn't able to reinforce my initial attack... why?... because those troops were on their way to the Dalmatian coast. Also on the WF the battle for Aachen hangs in the balance. The French have moved a huge stack ready to attack there next turn.. I have no more reinforcements to send to Aachen... where are they?? you guessed it... they are on the Dalmatian coast. So even if the BEF offensive fails (which looks likely) the Entente have succeeded in robbing me of the initiative on my two other fronts.
Was the Entente decision to invade along the Dalmatian coast doomed to failure? In my opinion yes. And here's why:
1) They waited too long.. from late sept to late dec is 5 turns... this gave me too long to grow suspicious and to begin to prepare.
2) If you are going to successfully invade you must do so with overwhelming force and not just in one region on a narrow front.
3) The Dalmatian coast is ringed with mountains making a breakout from the beaches very difficult... and it is winter...
4) The Serbian army has to be ready to attack in support of the British landing... currently the Serbs are just sitting there.. they should have attacked all along their front to keep my forces occupied.
5) On both the west and east fronts the Entente should have been ready to launch major offensives timed to exploit my preoccupation with the invasion... after all, I can't be strong everywhere. This hasn't happened.
This is not D Day... it looks more like Dieppe. In preparation for D Day the allies created an entire fictional army around Patton. They attacked in huge numbers on several beaches. They supported these amphibious invasions with air support, paratroops etc.. In other words they used deception and then total commitment to achieve success... as Stonewall Jackson said 'always try to mystify'.
, because I don't want to completely unbalance a good game, I have offered a cease fire for one turn
in Cattaro to give the BEF time to get back on their transports and save themselves. It is my honest conviction that if they don't do this they will be annilhilated.
Update, my opponent Jinx has turned down my offer of a temp cease fire. I rather admire his integrity... just like the Old Guard at the end of the battle of Waterloo... completely surrounded they were asked to surrender... their reply was 'merd!' ... and they died where they stood... now it's time to plan the destruction of the BEF...
I have started a post regarding the 'failure to gain military control' bug that I seem to have discovered... here's the link: http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?38334-Possible-military-control-bug