Manufacturing Italy (a PoN GC)

[powloon1]

Ahh the joys of a colonial war remember it well. I think the hardest thing is getting the force composition right. Too large a force and the natives seem able to disengage at will. Too small you probably win the battle but don't destroy any elements and so next turn hey presto you are facing an undamged foe ready to spar again.

Interesting hints on the Prussian menace. Will be interesting to see what even Garibaldi can do against their mega stack!

[r_rolo1]

... and, to the surprise of no one, Russia gets a casus-belli on Prussia

BTW I'm sensing a diplomatic crisis between you and Prussia brewing because of Dar es Salaam. As Prussia apparently is in push crisis mode, that can really turn ugly. Those sunbathing Prussians ( are they still there, btw ? ) are not needed in Italy

[De_Spinoza]

I have been following this since you started this AAR over at the paradox forums - it has been (and still is!) a thoroughly enjoying read. I don't think I have seen a PoN AAR that progressed as far as 1880, quite a feat. It makes me want to start a single player grand campaign myself (until now I have limited myself to the multiplayer campaign). But this AAR shows that PoN is perfectly enjoyable and playable as it is, despite the remaining issues. Anxious to see how the Prussians will react to your colonial incursions!

[dougo33]

This is a great and informative AAR. Loki you have a way of explaining the economics that makes the whole thing understandable to me. This also holds true for the military replacement portion of your AAR. I really have enjoyed reading this up to this point - please continue posting updates to the game.

[loki100]

Your industry creates nearly twice the prestige as all your held objectives combined. Since you're well on your way towards creating a Greater Italy, I take it that your industry's prestige-creation is quite impressive.

The colonial war system does a good job of recreating the morass of actual colonial wars. It looks like you could ship your entire European army off to East Africa and still have a hard time beating the natives. Any specialist units you could build that would be better suited to colonial warfare?

Given the Prussian predilection to get angry at the whole world (and possibly the planet Mars), it was only a matter of time before you'd become the object of their ire. Now, giving them a somewhat legitimate reason for meddling in their (entirely fictional) African sphere of influence might not have been the smartest move. Are all those Germans sunbathing and digging holes on the Adriatic beaches coming to pay a visit to you?

I think I might be in a position to win this game now purely on the basis of my industry - but that seems a rather tedious goal for the next 40 years of gameplay.

I've got a problem that I have built all the colonial brigades I can so need to be creative about forces I use in the colonies. With Ethiopia I have masses of native units - which really help with detection - but I still need some real power in certain theatres. This was in East Africa is mainly in open plains so if I have the detecion ability, I'm hoping that a large army will either bounce them out of my region or force them to battle. Buts its slow frustrating stuff. I do now reckon you need to seriously outnumber your opponent or you just end up with constant low key warfare - all in all the depiction of colonial war as different to the clash in Europe is one of PoN's many gems.

hah, Prussia has yet to meet the crack team of Italian negotiators ...

Ahh the joys of a colonial war remember it well. I think the hardest thing is getting the force composition right. Too large a force and the natives seem able to disengage at will. Too small you probably win the battle but don't destroy any elements and so next turn hey presto you are facing an undamged foe ready to spar again.

Interesting hints on the Prussian menace. Will be interesting to see what even Garibaldi can do against their mega stack!

Prussia is a bit of a gamble but I hoped they would opt out of war as they are still fighting the British.

One thing I've noticed when you are facing a 'state' (as opposed to rebels) is you can push them over the border and then they just sit there, depends of course on geography if you can manage this, but its one way to bring these struggles under control.

... and, to the surprise of no one, Russia gets a casus-belli on Prussia

BTW I'm sensing a diplomatic crisis between you and Prussia brewing because of Dar es Salaam. As Prussia apparently is in push crisis mode, that can really turn ugly. Those sunbathing Prussians ( are they still there, btw ? ) are not needed in Italy

och aye, the Prussians are still sunbathing on the upper Adriatic, I do wish they would go somewhere where the Britsh are as opposed to cluttering up Austria ...

I have been following this since you started this AAR over at the paradox forums - it has been (and still is!) a thoroughly enjoying read. I don't think I have seen a PoN AAR that progressed as far as 1880, quite a feat. It makes me want to start a single player grand campaign myself (until now I have limited myself to the multiplayer campaign). But this AAR shows that PoN is perfectly enjoyable and playable as it is, despite the remaining issues. Anxious to see how the Prussians will react to your colonial incursions!

thank you. At the moment this is more or less the only game I am playing SP. While you do lack the long term intelligence and planning of a human opponent, the depth of the simulation makes up for it. One of the delights is there are so many constraints - lack of key goods, the regular risk of colonial revolt, so you are always having to adjust, plan and reconsider.

This is a great and informative AAR. Loki you have a way of explaining the economics that makes the whole thing understandable to me. This also holds true for the military replacement portion of your AAR. I really have enjoyed reading this up to this point - please continue posting updates to the game.

glad you find it useful. I actually started as in part I thought if I have to write down and explain what I am doing then I'd pay more attention and learn myself. I started taking a rather casual view of the military side as I thought it was something I knew from other AGE games. There is some truth in that, but the need to plan long term and the fear that a large defeat will take 5-8 years to recover from, give the overall military planning aspect a very different feel to a lot of games. There is much less 'end of game/end of the world' to PoN.

[loki100]

So another ‘peaceful’ six months (with added violence) as I seek to resolve my 2 colonial wars, and deal with irate Prussians. Anyway, lets start with the standard progress reports:

[CENTER]Usual Reports[/CENTER]

Manufactures
(I seem to have missed the April screenshots)



The main dynamic here is the lack of Manufactured Goods on a global scale. I can boost my share (by overpaying +25%) but that will badly harm the world economy. So I try closing down things I don’t really need (such as luxury goods as I can no longer sell all I produce) and, as a long term solution, build another plant. Once I have a decent stock again, I’ll add more plants. The consequence is that Private Capital is just piling up.
Manufactured goods are critical for production, for new builds, for the various domestic and colonial development cards, for replacements and for building new military units. On this basis, I really do want to find a solution to this problem if I can.

Non-Manufactures



As ever, somewhat more under control. My new tea field opens and that will help supply a better range of goods to the domestic market.

Happy People



The only problem provinces are those I’ve recently acquired with militancy dropping in Lombardy (so I’ll move the MP unit to Venezia). Still a problem with the birthrate in the mountain provinces (Savoy and Sud-Tirol).

Military



Pretty much under control, I’ve raised a few specialist formations (discussed below) so that has reduced my stock of conscript companies (743 to 652) and the colonial battles are costing a steady stream of light infantry (the third category on the top row) replacements, but nothing I can’t meet easily enough.

[CENTER]Developments[/CENTER]

Colonial wars.

I’ve not paid much attention to the one that is ongoing in Arabia. To some extent I have control over how much effort to put in as they won’t cross the borders into my territory (and of course it’s a sandy wasteland). But having discovered it, I do rather want to own it. This is the situation in January:



My basic strategy is to fend them off from the 2 southern provinces long enough for a missionary thing to be established. That will then ease my supply problems and I can start to squeeze them northwards (at which stage they become the Ottoman’s problem).

In the same region, by the end of June, Kuwait is on the road to becoming a full colony.



I’ll spare you all the interminable battle reports as I win and (sometimes) lose a sequence of small skirmishes in the region.

In East Africa, I am going for brute force – or at least enough force to mean I can slowly push the enemy forces out of the region I wish to occupy. To assist this, I raise a new corps made up of specialist units, a garrison brigade and some older guns I captured from the Ottomans.



That will give me 3 field armies and enough colonial formations to secure my current holdings and slowly push into the rebel regions.

Prussian belligerence

Well we have the usual Prussian attempt to collect a CB on the entire planet.



Note I am the one being reasonable and friendly …

But once Dar es Salaam becomes an Italian Protectorate they become rather antsy about the whole thing. This time they pick on the wrong nation.



So it’s a gamble but I decide to face them down. My logic is they are still involved in their war with GB and, at worst, I think I can fight a defensive war long enough to gain some sort of peace.
Italy puts into place its tried and tested negotiating techniques. As one might have said in the Via delle Botteghe Oscure, “hai ragione, domande tutti”[1].

Well the outcome is pretty good.



As you can see I started with a low key gambit and they gave up. Plus 1543 for me, thank you very much.

Russian belligerence

My Russian allies are also being belligerent, but are much more prepared to actually follow up on their words:



This kicks off what would have been the 1878 war. I’ve dug into the event chain and the issue was it gives Russia a CB on the Ottomans but as with a number of these events, doesn’t force a war. The problem is the end result (the Treaty of Adrianople) is key to the next stages in the Balkans as it produces Bulgaria, an enlarged Serbia and an isolated Ottoman Bosnia (as well as the UK gets Cyprus). So I rewrote the decision to trigger a DOW as the easiest way to move the game on. It seems realistic as there is no way the Ottomans have recovered from their beatings in the 1870s.

Of course others want CBs too …



Well, if they want to do all macho, I can show them how its really done.



Especially as the man with the beard is back in charge.



None of this metrosexual small beard stuff for Italy and of course tensions with Austria mean it is essential that Umberto delays his return … for another decade or so.

In the meantime, my prestige steadily increases:



Not too much change in the last 6 months but I am starting to catch up with GB and it seems as if they are still losing their war with Prussia – but where they are actually fighting remains a mystery.

So up next, Italy shows the world what men with big beards do when they have a valid CB ...

[1] – main slogan of the Italian left in the period after 1969 – best translated as ‘be reasonable, demand everything’.

[Stuyvesant]

I rather like the "I discovered this godforsaken sandpit [the Rub Al Khali], now I want to own it, too!" attitude. Should serve you well as an aspiring colonial heavyweight.

Your crack team of negotiators (or should that be "crackpot"?) sent the Prussians fleeing for sanity. Impressive. Can't say I'm impressed with the Prussian logic to station roughly a million men on the Adriatic beaches and then pull out of the negotiations as soon as the Italians wave their hands furiously for a few seconds. Anyway, nice pickup of prestige at no cost - for now, at least, but I assume the AI doesn't remember past insults?

Off to Austria. I didn't realize we'd already made it that far along that the peace treaty had expired. Time flies, etc. Should be interesting to see if this is going to be a repeat of your second war against the Ottos (AKA a walk in the park in a motorized scooter), or if the Austrians will be able to muster a slightly more convincing defense. I'm not too hopeful, but the Ottomans did set the bar pretty low, so you never know.

Your light infantry seems to have an obsession with ostrich feathers which is troubling. As far as fashion statements go, they would be over the top even for a bunch of flaming drag queens, so your boys are not coming off in the most positive light there.

[Gen. Monkey-Bear]

So why exactly are you declaring war on Austria? I don't really see anymore gains now that Austria is already broken . . .

[loki100]

I rather like the "I discovered this godforsaken sandpit [the Rub Al Khali], now I want to own it, too!" attitude. Should serve you well as an aspiring colonial heavyweight.

Your crack team of negotiators (or should that be "crackpot"?) sent the Prussians fleeing for sanity. Impressive. Can't say I'm impressed with the Prussian logic to station roughly a million men on the Adriatic beaches and then pull out of the negotiations as soon as the Italians wave their hands furiously for a few seconds. Anyway, nice pickup of prestige at no cost - for now, at least, but I assume the AI doesn't remember past insults?

Off to Austria. I didn't realize we'd already made it that far along that the peace treaty had expired. Time flies, etc. Should be interesting to see if this is going to be a repeat of your second war against the Ottos (AKA a walk in the park in a motorized scooter), or if the Austrians will be able to muster a slightly more convincing defense. I'm not too hopeful, but the Ottomans did set the bar pretty low, so you never know.

Your light infantry seems to have an obsession with ostrich feathers which is troubling. As far as fashion statements go, they would be over the top even for a bunch of flaming drag queens, so your boys are not coming off in the most positive light there.

Well I guess that was the delusion of Empire, once you owned a region, you then came to see the bordering regions as a threat, so of course just had to expand etc

Prussia I gambled that with their GB war they didn't really want to tangle with me, esp after they had seen at first hand what Garibaldi can do when in a bad mood (more of this below)

It seems the forced period of peace after a war is 1 year - seems a bit short, say compared to Victoria. Anyway, my view is that the UK-Prussian war can't last for ever (well it feasibly could but I am going to intervene to end it) so now is as good a time as any.

Ah you have now worked out the real reason why I am attacking Africa - I assume that Ostriches do come from Africa? - I'm good at geography but less good at where animals are. We need to corner the market in exotic head gear or the amry will just end up refusing to fight.

So why exactly are you declaring war on Austria? I don't really see anymore gains now that Austria is already broken . . .

Well I do want Friule and Trieste, I'll leave them Split. Also I'm making the judgement that Prussia is too busy at the moment. More generally what I've decided to do is that if I win this time decisively I'll end the UK-Prussian war (I'll give Prussia a prestige boost) as that is going nowhere, and then jump start the German unification chain. So Prussia's reward for victory will be the NGF as they can take advantage of Austria's weakness. In turn I'll force the post-1866 chain on Austria (so dual monarchy and unrest in the Czech lands), that will, plus the results of the current Russo-Turkish war, give us a relatively realistic Europe for the 1880s.

[loki100]

So the second half of 1881 commences with the usual collection of CBs by the great and good of Europe. So never liking to be the one left out, I decide to do the real thing.



Austria’s NM has recovered but it seems I now outnumber them.



The only problem is a fair bit of my army is off fighting in Africa but I have 4 large combat formations and opt to call up the reserves.



Well it does seem as if someone else fancies a large scale war too:



My plan is relatively simple. Occupy Innsbruck to secure my northern flank while the bulk of the army pushes towards Trieste. Unlike last time, I am looking battle, on open terrain if I can manage it.



Just in time, I discover the Maxim Machine Gun which gives me large boosts to defensive fire power and the rate of fire for the bulk of my army. I also gain better entrenchments




In the meantime in East Africa my strategy of squeezing the enemy with overwhelming numbers starts to pay off.



By early August, my campaign in Austria is also going well. Garibarldi took Zagreb and is now besieging Buda (its an Austrian VP city so I’ll gain warscore) and then will try to take Wien. The only problem is a single, very large Austrian Army. This has already driven in my attempts to advance in the Alps and I think my army may be dangerously spread out.



A fear well founded, though in terms of losses inflicted I can the war on the basis of that sort of defeat.



However, a number of my elements are now close to being destroyed so I need to be a little bit cautious till they have had chance to recover.

In the meantime, Garibaldi has just stormed Buda when an Austrian relief force arrives. By the time he has finished two-thirds of that army lie dead or wounded and the balance collapses in the resulting rout.



After a string of minor defeats, Austria’s NM is in decline and their losses steadily mount.



Even so, a number of close fought battles occur as the advantage switches from one side to another. I’m having problems bringing their large force to battle where it suits me, this time the Austrian operational approach is a lot more astute than it was in the first war.



Even so, by early September, in both theatres of war it looks like Italy is on the verge of victory. My colonial holdings in East Africa are cleared of enemy troops [1]



And in Europe, having relaxed a bit in Buda, Gari is now off to Wien.



With my reserves mobilised, I start to create a large enough force to deal with the main Austrian army and one of the armies from East Africa will be back in Europe in a couple of months.

Wien comes under siege, again, although I lost no elements in the first round those losses have left a number of Garibaldi’s battalions at risk of collapse unless they have a chance to recover soon.



And an Austrian attempt to dislodge Garibaldi in late September fails dismally



So, so far, this war has proved tougher than I expected. That large Austrian army is quite a threat and it keeps on avoiding my main forces and inflicting small defeats on my more isolated units. But Francesco and a 1500 power army will be available soon so I am optimistic that the autumn-winter battles should see the balance tilted firmly in my direction. Especially as it appears as if Austria’s capacity to fight has collapsed.



[1] – ok ‘enemy troops’ who happen to live there but that is a minor detail.
[2] – Note that although there have been a few bloody battles, overall losses are not too grim, mainly as the huge clashes of the first war haven’t been repeated (there are not enough Austrians left). I think this supports the argument that the high losses in PoN are a combination of lethality and too large a force (potentially) on the field of battle.

[r_rolo1]

Well, to be honest about the AI performance in the first Austrian war, it is not that they had much of strategic choice besides either risk a landing ( given your full control of the Adriatic, that would be just short of a suicide ), Sitzkrieg in front of the Dolomites ( that would be pretty much assume that the war was lost, but without the crippling losses ) or try to human wave your units. Given that the AI coders for games tend to forget that sometimes not doing anything is the best choice ( and so the AI has to do something no matter how stupid or self destructive ) and that sometimes human waves do work ( you passed some rough spots ... a more directed Austrian offensive could had actually worked in pushing you out of the Dolomites and then you would have no fallback line ), the AI has gone through the more sensible path inside the limitations it has and in the the very contrived situation it was in.

Now you are making a two pronged attack in plains with cover from a river ... that is by far a more open ( and risky ) situation where the AI has better strategic options than to sit looking at entrenched Italians or to human wave them. And that IMHO is what you are sensing as better performance ...

Back to less esoteric musings, the Austrians seem quite spent and if you had putted more energy destroying that 7k pwr stack they would have no army to speak off ( not that I do not agree with your movements : I would do roughly the same thing ). It does not seem that this will be anywhere close of the bloodiness of the First Austrian War, but you have more to do that beating sick men of Europe and any soldier lost against the Austrians is a soldier that will not be there for ... other missions ). So the earlier you close this deal, the better.

And as I predicted, the Balkans have Russians Everywhere ™ ... let's just hope that it will not generate a big(ger) mess in there

[Director]

Garibaldi may have been in Buda but he was certainly making a Pest of himself.

Yep, if you can besiege Vienna and they cannot manuever you or drive you off, then the war is lost for Austria. What do you plan to ask for in the peace talks?

The Prussian alliance has been of no use to Austria at all. One hopes they will find a friend somewhere else (like Russia or France) and beat the crap out of their northern neighbors. Won't happen, I know, but it would be sweet revenge.

When fighting the Mahdi it is VERY important that you do not wall yourself up in Khartoum and dare him to come and get you...


On a different note, if this was a 'real' history you'd need a better memorial for Garibaldi than just a lake. The man has been invaluable through unification, colonial adventures and what is it now, four major foreign wars? If he takes Wien you'll have a national hero on your hands - or perhaps a Caesar.

[Stuyvesant]

Garibaldi may have been in Buda but he was certainly making a Pest of himself.

Groan. I would dearly like to elaborate, but all my efforts fall short, so I'll just leave it at "Groan".

On a different note, if this was a 'real' history you'd need a better memorial for Garibaldi than just a lake.

Well, he does have this named after him...

Okay, really should offer substantive commentary on the Austrian war, but that'll have to wait for a bit (researching the Garibaldi biscuit took too long, considering I'm at work and all that lark). Will expand on that train of thought later.

[Solemnace]

Having followed this on Paradox I've remembered at last to continue following this over here at Ageod.

And Look what I missed. Thousands of Dead Austrians and Africans. I should have got back following this earlier.

[loki100]

Well, to be honest about the AI performance in the first Austrian war, it is not that they had much of strategic choice besides either risk a landing ( given your full control of the Adriatic, that would be just short of a suicide ), Sitzkrieg in front of the Dolomites ( that would be pretty much assume that the war was lost, but without the crippling losses ) or try to human wave your units. Given that the AI coders for games tend to forget that sometimes not doing anything is the best choice ( and so the AI has to do something no matter how stupid or self destructive ) and that sometimes human waves do work ( you passed some rough spots ... a more directed Austrian offensive could had actually worked in pushing you out of the Dolomites and then you would have no fallback line ), the AI has gone through the more sensible path inside the limitations it has and in the the very contrived situation it was in.

Now you are making a two pronged attack in plains with cover from a river ... that is by far a more open ( and risky ) situation where the AI has better strategic options than to sit looking at entrenched Italians or to human wave them. And that IMHO is what you are sensing as better performance ...

Back to less esoteric musings, the Austrians seem quite spent and if you had putted more energy destroying that 7k pwr stack they would have no army to speak off ( not that I do not agree with your movements : I would do roughly the same thing ). It does not seem that this will be anywhere close of the bloodiness of the First Austrian War, but you have more to do that beating sick men of Europe and any soldier lost against the Austrians is a soldier that will not be there for ... other missions ). So the earlier you close this deal, the better.

And as I predicted, the Balkans have Russians Everywhere ™ ... let's just hope that it will not generate a big(ger) mess in there

You are right that this time I prioritised key locations (Buda and Wien) over their army unlike last time. In truth, and we'll see this in the next update, I rather misjudged this war, so I have the power to cope with my mistakes but I really should have stuck to key principles - destroy your enemy's ability to resist first, take the real estate second.

In general I find the AGE AI can be pretty creative when it has movement options so I think you are right in calling its strategy in the first war. One of the hardest lessons with AGE (esp in PBEM) is the importance of not moving. Not only does defense trump attack in almost every game (RoP is probably the least stark) but that movement costs cohesion and causes losses. As Narwhal has said a few times -- 'ask yourself what would McClellan do?' before making a move. After a fairly disastrous 3 months, I need to very much remember this.

Garibaldi may have been in Buda but he was certainly making a Pest of himself.

Yep, if you can besiege Vienna and they cannot manuever you or drive you off, then the war is lost for Austria. What do you plan to ask for in the peace talks?

The Prussian alliance has been of no use to Austria at all. One hopes they will find a friend somewhere else (like Russia or France) and beat the crap out of their northern neighbors. Won't happen, I know, but it would be sweet revenge.

When fighting the Mahdi it is VERY important that you do not wall yourself up in Khartoum and dare him to come and get you...


On a different note, if this was a 'real' history you'd need a better memorial for Garibaldi than just a lake. The man has been invaluable through unification, colonial adventures and what is it now, four major foreign wars? If he takes Wien you'll have a national hero on your hands - or perhaps a Caesar.

Gari as this time-lines 'man on a white horse' has occured to me a few times. I guess the reasons not is that Louis Nap and then Boulanger in effect were able to channel the discontent of an army that felt betrayed by society, here I'd guess the Italian army is well regarded and can't complain that it hasn't been backed. Time to dust down my copy of Marx's 'Civil War in France' just to double check.

This time I am out to wreck Austria if I can - with Milan and Sud-Tirol they have permanent CBs on me which weakens my ability to strip Italy of troops for a war somewhere else, so the more they have major problems the better for me. I think Prussia is not supporting them due to the British war, fairly clearly the diplo AI won't voluntarily get into 2 wars at once.

I have carefully checked and no Italian general is called Gordon, so I'll let the Mahdi do his thing unchecked - but I am of the view I may have to step in to rescue Egypt at some stage.

Groan. I would dearly like to elaborate, but all my efforts fall short, so I'll just leave it at "Groan".

Well, he does have this named after him...

Okay, really should offer substantive commentary on the Austrian war, but that'll have to wait for a bit (researching the Garibaldi biscuit took too long, considering I'm at work and all that lark). Will expand on that train of thought later.

Yep G has certainly earnt his biscuits in this time line. OK there was the unfortunate civil war (can happen to anyone really) but since then he has delivered big time.

Having followed this on Paradox I've remembered at last to continue following this over here at Ageod.

And Look what I missed. Thousands of Dead Austrians and Africans. I should have got back following this earlier.

Welcome over here and thanks for posting. Yep the death toll has steadily escalated since I moved to the AGEOD forum ... I'm not sure there is a causal link though.

[loki100]

So the start of the war has been less successful than I hoped for. I should stress that this time my goals are gain Friule (Udine) and Trieste and do as much damage to Austria as I can. They now have a permanent CB on me (Sud-Tirol and Milan) so I am keen to wreck them.

I’ve also dug into the German unification event chains. Now I’m not sure where they broke but Holstein is still part of Denmark which should have some bearing. What I’ve done is to recreate the key steps (NGF, Dual Monarchy etc) on the following grounds. There is a script to end the Prussian-GB war with a transfer of prestige to Prussia and the creation of the NGF (this is random, 10% and due to fire at some stage in the next 2 years). If I beat Austria badly, I have set up scripts to bring S Germany into Prussia (I’ve linked that to loss of Austria’s status), create the Dual Monarchy and kick off the 1880s crises in the Czech lands. As we’ll see my scripting skills aren’t as good as I thought, but my hope was that would get my Europe back on track.

Anyway lets deal with the war in hand, or more strictly one that has just finished. Obviously the trigger to end the Balkan war has fired. Bosnia will go to Austria later on as part of the chains I’ve described. This should of course lead to long term peace in the region.



Now I need to respond to my relative set backs. So I decide to recover the Adriatic coast while another army pushes over the Danube into the Czech lands. This should restore my operational position and gaining Prag etc (plus occupying Wien) will push up the warscore.



Well it starts well, Garibaldi more or less finishes off the Austrian army that was protecting the capital.



On the Adriatic I retake Split and Prag falls:



The problem is that large Austrian army still occupies Trieste but fortunately Francesco’s army from E Africa will return soon (I’m making sure that Umberto stays where he can do no damage).



Given the state of Austria’s NM, time is very much on my side and I can let the warscore build up while I try to destroy their regular army (if I can).

On this basis, October-November sees little but small skirmishes and the main change is I capture Pecs (another source of warscore) and Garibaldi storms Olmutz, strengthening my grip on Bohemia. However, by the end of November sees my forces built up on the Adriatic and the Austrians back in possession of Zagreb.



Well for one of a few times, ‘march to the sound of the guns’ fails me. Isolated one of my armies fights a bloody battle at Zagreb and I retreat, taking more losses as I do so.



To this is added the bad news from Bohemia where an attempt to storm a well defended fort ends in a major defeat, and more losses as my forces fall back.



At least Garibaldi remembers how it should be done.



To all this grim news comes reports of a colonial disaster. I know I said I wasn’t going to prosecute the war with Njaf on the grounds they had nothing I wanted. Well … such restraint is easier said than done.



And just as news of that arrives, the Austrians win another major victory.



At least I have the good news that my underemployed navy now has better shells.



But more seriously, my replacement position reflects that disastrous sequence of battles.



But at least the population remains supportive of the war.



And oddly, despite their relative victories, Austria’s capacity to fight has not improved.



Strategically I now have a problem. The army that lost the battle at Pilsen actually lost all its infantry in the retreat, so I need to raise some new corps. The rest of the army is badly battered so I am going to go over to the defense over winter and let my main units recover. I hold Wien and Buda-Pest as well as Trieste-Split, so the main Austrian army is effectively surrounded at Zagreb. If it tries to break out I can fight on the defense.

More generally I have a repeat of the issue from the second Ottoman war. I am responsible for feeding a lot of Austrians so domestic demand for food is more than I can manage (even with the occupied farms). I am running a large trade deficit (around -1000PC per turn) but selling about 3500-4000 PC to the domestic market. I also hold a lot of valuable industry so my earlier shortage of manufactured goods is more than wiped out due to all the Austrian industrial centres I hold. That is another reason why I think I can sit back over winter. They will really struggle to find the industry to equip replacements, never mind new formations.

But perhaps as I am being more ambitious this time, but this war is proving a lot tougher than I had expected.

[Gen. Monkey-Bear]

But perhaps as I am being more ambitious this time, but this war is proving a lot tougher than I had expected

Nah, you're just messing with us, aren't you? We know you can handle them. Even though they won some big battles to slow you down, they can't stop you forever.

[Stuyvesant]

Having re-read the previous update (I realized I never delivered my promised further comments. Heh) and then read the new one, I must admit I'm surprised to see how the Austrians bounced back, relatively, and gave you a nice bloody nose. Given the overall balance of power (and distribution of losses in the last period), I doubt this is anything more than an Austrian equivalent to the Ardennes Offensive - it looks shocking for a few days, but then the inevitable outcome reimposes itself.

There's a Prussian horde of 38,000+ power roaming through eastern Hungary, or are my eyes deceiving me?

And yes, I'm sure that the Austrian administration of Bosnia will be greeted with much goodwill and fellowship of men amongst the other Balkan states.

[Gen. Monkey-Bear]

Why don't you surround those Prussians and starve them out?

[Director]

Loki, I greatly respect what you have done - turning Italy into one of the economic Great Powers is a real feat, and building a world-class army has to be at least as difficult. But I think you are the victim of just a little bit of hopeful optimism this time. Your operational posture in the first war with Austria was very smart: you dug in and forced them to come to you, making maximal use of superior artillery and defensive positions, then gave them the 'backhand blow' and rolled them back all the way to Vienna. You didn't try to take territory until you were certain you could beat their raw levies in a fair fight on open ground and then you hammered them flat.

You thought this second war was going to be a repeat of the second Ottoman War (so did I!) and - as you yourself said - you prioritized taking places over the destruction of the enemy armies. In short, just a bit of wishful thinking, yes? It seems to me your forces have become dispersed and are being beaten in detail. Despite the fact that the Austrians are losing more men than you, they are spending conscripts against your veterans. And the sudden string of victories must be encouraging the Emperor to fight on.

Rebuilding over the winter seems like a good plan. Come spring, my suggestion is that you concentrate on your objective and give the enemy field force a series of defeats. After all, in the absence of an enemy army you can occupy pretty much any place you like, yes?

Of course my own handling of a war in Germany is not going so well as to give me the right to lecture and I do not intend to do so - just perhaps to whisper in Caesar's ear a reminder that his troops, at least, are mortal.

Given how tough the Austrians are this time do you think a second defeat will keep them from coming back at you? I am not so confident as I was, but the Austrian AI has not been very bellicose thus far.

[r_rolo1]

Director summed up my thoughts on this. you were expecting a Austrian performance at the level of the Ottomans and that was , at best, a optimistic view, given the disparity of performance between both in the first wars against you ( the Ottomans gave you a bloody fight but in roughly equal terms, the Austrians completely surpassed you in raw power and only careful positioning and experience saved the day ). But then again, you opened the war and saw no Austrian army worthy of that name, so I don't blame you of trying to push the perceived advantage ... but you should IMHO had putted more effort in smashing that 7k pwr stack before going to the left side of the Danube ( going to Bohemia before doing that was ... excessive :/ ) ... that would had allowed more cooperation between the occupying armies and would allow a concentration of force if needed.

Anyway, I think that concentrating your armies and giving them a rest behind any kind of defensive line would be a good idea, since you lost a lot of elements with experience. OFC that the armies that were in Africa will allow you to resume the offensive soon, but maybe some extensive rest is advisable . Then you must give chase to the Austrian armies and destroy them before even thinking on disperse for occupation. Like you said , you have the biggest Austrian army pretty much pinned in the right side of the Danube, so that is the natural first target to eliminate.

Well, in resume, the war is far from lost, but you could had been far more cautious and you're paying for it

[Stuyvesant]

I suspect that the plummeting NM score for Austria (was it 12 or 6 at the last count) played a large part in loki's calculations, as that really seems to drive an awful lot of combat performance - or the expected lack thereof for the Austrians. Based on my own, very limited, experience with the AGEOD system (RUS) you do really see troops crumble when there's a big disparity in NM between opposing forces.

But I certainly agree that destroying the Austrian field armies should take/ought to have taken priority before any further territorial expeditions.

[loki100]

Nah, you're just messing with us, aren't you? We know you can handle them. Even though they won some big battles to slow you down, they can't stop you forever.

I'll answer some of the wider points here as it all fits the debate. Can I lose? No, not unless Prussia decides to join in. Can I carry on losing veteran formations that are hard to build up? Yes. I can replace the combat units but not the lost expertise and that is what my mistakes in this war so far have cost me.

In truth, as identified, I have indeed been far too casual. I should have taken the Adriatic provinces, and moved methodically towards the Danube making sure my rear was secure and my armies mutually supporting. That would have left the Austrians with no choice but to fall back or to fight very much on my own terms. As it was I believed that they would struggle to field a large army and that I could go for strategic sites as a combination of military and morale advantage would hand victory to me on a plate.

In the first war, especially in the first 9-12 months, I was being exceptionally cautious. I was all too aware that a single bad defeat could lead to me looking for, at best, a white peace and at worst seeing the whole of my army systemically destroyed. This time I have been much too casual. It is of course good to see that poor operational discipline leads to bad results ... and that the AGE AI is quite capable of making you pay for mistakes.

Having re-read the previous update (I realized I never delivered my promised further comments. Heh) and then read the new one, I must admit I'm surprised to see how the Austrians bounced back, relatively, and gave you a nice bloody nose. Given the overall balance of power (and distribution of losses in the last period), I doubt this is anything more than an Austrian equivalent to the Ardennes Offensive - it looks shocking for a few days, but then the inevitable outcome reimposes itself.

There's a Prussian horde of 38,000+ power roaming through eastern Hungary, or are my eyes deceiving me?

And yes, I'm sure that the Austrian administration of Bosnia will be greeted with much goodwill and fellowship of men amongst the other Balkan states.

No you are right that the Prussians have made up a huge army again, but at least now it is not cluttering up the battlefields so why should I care what 300,000 (a guess) Prussians get up to in eastern Galicia?

You're right that I am still in a dominant position, but as above I am losing experienced units and they took 3 wars to build up to that level of competence.

As to Bosnia, I'm sure it will end well.

Why don't you surround those Prussians and starve them out?

I think its due to the limits in the game engine, they are 'neutral' to both sides so can draw supply as if most of Austria was not a war zone. The main issue is if a Prussian unit is in a province I can't then assault the fort (the game engine seems to read it as a 'hostile' unit and stops the attack) so they rather distort my progress.

Loki, I greatly respect what you have done - turning Italy into one of the economic Great Powers is a real feat, and building a world-class army has to be at least as difficult. But I think you are the victim of just a little bit of hopeful optimism this time. Your operational posture in the first war with Austria was very smart: you dug in and forced them to come to you, making maximal use of superior artillery and defensive positions, then gave them the 'backhand blow' and rolled them back all the way to Vienna. You didn't try to take territory until you were certain you could beat their raw levies in a fair fight on open ground and then you hammered them flat.

You thought this second war was going to be a repeat of the second Ottoman War (so did I!) and - as you yourself said - you prioritized taking places over the destruction of the enemy armies. In short, just a bit of wishful thinking, yes? It seems to me your forces have become dispersed and are being beaten in detail. Despite the fact that the Austrians are losing more men than you, they are spending conscripts against your veterans. And the sudden string of victories must be encouraging the Emperor to fight on.

Rebuilding over the winter seems like a good plan. Come spring, my suggestion is that you concentrate on your objective and give the enemy field force a series of defeats. After all, in the absence of an enemy army you can occupy pretty much any place you like, yes?

Of course my own handling of a war in Germany is not going so well as to give me the right to lecture and I do not intend to do so - just perhaps to whisper in Caesar's ear a reminder that his troops, at least, are mortal.

Given how tough the Austrians are this time do you think a second defeat will keep them from coming back at you? I am not so confident as I was, but the Austrian AI has not been very bellicose thus far.

That very much summarises what I know need to do to regain control. Sit back, wait for spring and hunt their main army. But while they may have problems with replacements and regulars, they can still call on a lot more reservists, so this war is not over yet. They make 2 peace offers but each is for only one of the provinces I want (I don't really want a 3rd war as sooner or later the Prussians will back their fellow Germans). Speaking of Prussia, my relations with them are dire -30, I guess reflecting that I keep on attacking their ally so that is a threat at the back of my mind.

Director summed up my thoughts on this. you were expecting a Austrian performance at the level of the Ottomans and that was , at best, a optimistic view, given the disparity of performance between both in the first wars against you ( the Ottomans gave you a bloody fight but in roughly equal terms, the Austrians completely surpassed you in raw power and only careful positioning and experience saved the day ). But then again, you opened the war and saw no Austrian army worthy of that name, so I don't blame you of trying to push the perceived advantage ... but you should IMHO had putted more effort in smashing that 7k pwr stack before going to the left side of the Danube ( going to Bohemia before doing that was ... excessive :/ ) ... that would had allowed more cooperation between the occupying armies and would allow a concentration of force if needed.

Anyway, I think that concentrating your armies and giving them a rest behind any kind of defensive line would be a good idea, since you lost a lot of elements with experience. OFC that the armies that were in Africa will allow you to resume the offensive soon, but maybe some extensive rest is advisable . Then you must give chase to the Austrian armies and destroy them before even thinking on disperse for occupation. Like you said , you have the biggest Austrian army pretty much pinned in the right side of the Danube, so that is the natural first target to eliminate.

Well, in resume, the war is far from lost, but you could had been far more cautious and you're paying for it

Not much I can disagree with their. Even in an electronic game, hubris has consequences and I now need to spend time sorting out a mess I should never have let happen in the first place. The good thing is they are clearly struggling for replacements as once the campaign restarts, the Austrians see a pretty quick linkage from losses to lost elements while I can absorb my casualties.

I suspect that the plummeting NM score for Austria (was it 12 or 6 at the last count) played a large part in loki's calculations, as that really seems to drive an awful lot of combat performance - or the expected lack thereof for the Austrians. Based on my own, very limited, experience with the AGEOD system (RUS) you do really see troops crumble when there's a big disparity in NM between opposing forces.

But I certainly agree that destroying the Austrian field armies should take/ought to have taken priority before any further territorial expeditions.

Well in our RUS PBEM you saw it towards the end. Even with Trotsky and Frunze as commanders I needed 2-1 odds to have any chance of winning, so culling their NM is very much part of my strategy. But in 1882 its secondary to the primary goal, in 1881 I relied too much on the anticipated benefits of such a NM differential. The other hope is that with their NM so low, there will be (and indeed they break out in the summer) a number of rebellions all of which distracts them.

[loki100]

Well my plan was to spend the winter on the defense, rebuild and sort out the consequences of my mistakes in the Spring. Unfortunately, the Austrians had other ideas. Fortunately this was the only major battle over winter so I was able to regroup and allow my forces to take on reinforcements.


(I’ll get the pun in first, quite clear that shows the advantages of flexing your Pecs)

But they are prepared to surrender Friule. Well it’s a nice offer but I want a lot more.


(worth noting the AI will often offer something more substantial than your warscore notionally allows you to claim).

In the meantime, parts of the Empire decide they really like being ruled by Italy. Equally note also my colonial prestige gain is up to 5 per turn and will increase to 6 fairly soon. My guess is this is being driven by holding all my colonial targets, improving SoI elsewhere and possibly by development in the colonies?




Naval technology continues to develop,



I’m raising an odd assortment of formations, plus some more ships, to replace my losses in the winter battles.



Anyway by early February, my script ending the Anglo-Prussian war and creating the NGF fires.



But it seems as if the second part, in respect of Austria, didn’t take account of my clever (but obviously ineptly delivered) idea. So Prussia/Germany has taken over the SGF too and Austria is now Austria-Hungary. Still they are not doing very well in the war though.



Apart from the battle at Pecs, there were no more major battles till late February when I tangled with the main Austrian army at Fiume and catch a smaller force at Zagreb.



But, again their main army proves very elusive. This leads to a lot of marching with no actual combat but by late March, winter finally lifts, and I spot that is sheltering in Fiume.



If it stays there, this is an ideal chance to finish the war. I can trap it in the fort, set up a naval blockade and sooner or later it will surrender. If that army is under siege, I can also press into the rest of Austria with no fear of that huge force.

The result is not quite as good as I’d hoped for. I catch them, but outside the city, but inflict a heavy defeat (the lost elements indicating they have had real problems taking on replacements).



This sends them scurrying off to produce a new peace plan.



Well that is better, but not really good enough. So the war continues. I have trapped their main force and am now using 3 large armies to keep it from regaining cohesion. Hopefully with its destruction (or isolation on the middle Adriatic provinces), I can then move back into Bohemia etc.

[Stuyvesant]

Austria's on the ropes (and assuming they don't have the wits or stamina to pull a 'rope-a-dope' like Ali did, they'll stay there). So in that sense the war's progressing in your favor.

On the other hand... Well, really it's only one teeny thing, hardly worth mentioning... It's that whole Prussia-turning-into-full-fledged-Germany thing. That has me a bit concerned. Must've made former-Prussia vastly more powerful in every respect, also means they have many more borders with Austria(-Hungary) now, their relations with you are in the tank... Do you know if the AI can jump in on its ally's behalf at any time, or is it a one-off 'Yes/No' decision at the start of the war? I fear it's the former, in which case all those sunbathing and sightseeing [s]Prussian[/s] German units are seriously getting me on edge.

[Gen. Monkey-Bear]

See, I knew you'd recover. Not that it was easy, but you got this.

A strong Germany scares Great Britain more, I assume. After all, they did just lose their first European war in a long time. But I don't imagine that it will be good for anyone. Perhaps you should start flirting (couldn't think of a better word) with the French a bit to make allies.

[Stuyvesant]

Perhaps you should start flirting (couldn't think of a better word) with the French a bit to make allies.

When it comes to the French, flirting is always the way to go (this message brought to you by National Stereotypes[sup]TM[/sup]).

I wonder what would happen if loki did ally with the French and then the Germans decide they really want Elsaß-Lothringen - assuming Austria is still allied with the German Behemoth, that could set off quite the conflagration - Germany/Austria in the one corner, Italy/France in the other. Wonder how much loki could help the French if he has to watch his borders with angry Austria.

[r_rolo1]

Now that is better, with a suitably beaten Austrian army For sake of clarity, what I was planning in my armchair generalship for this was a double pronged attack to conquer the right Danube shore with Gari and some other high ranked general, while the other armies would methodically wipe the provinces in between ... and if the Austrians marched to the Adriatic you could use your combined forces to clean them out ... that was pretty much what you ended doing, besides that IMHO mistimed rush to Bohemia Anyway, in the end you have the situation quite under control and it should not take long to Austria(-Hungary) to fold. Now that Germany ... ouch; your soldiers in Salzburg should be in their toes looking at the German border

BTW I noticed you have lost Split to rebels since atleast the end of last update. It was a unfortunate event due to the idiotically low NM of Austria(-Hungary) that should be starting to spawn rebels everywhere or are you engineering some way to get it without having to mess with the German duo again? And on the French ... not sure if it worth to cozy with them , since they have quite a feud with Germany and the last thing you want is a mistimed war with them when you have a far bigger fish to fry ...

[loki100]

Austria's on the ropes (and assuming they don't have the wits or stamina to pull a 'rope-a-dope' like Ali did, they'll stay there). So in that sense the war's progressing in your favor.

On the other hand... Well, really it's only one teeny thing, hardly worth mentioning... It's that whole Prussia-turning-into-full-fledged-Germany thing. That has me a bit concerned. Must've made former-Prussia vastly more powerful in every respect, also means they have many more borders with Austria(-Hungary) now, their relations with you are in the tank... Do you know if the AI can jump in on its ally's behalf at any time, or is it a one-off 'Yes/No' decision at the start of the war? I fear it's the former, in which case all those sunbathing and sightseeing [s]Prussian[/s] German units are seriously getting me on edge.

I'm not sure as to the range of diplomatic options, ie do you get a one-off chance to honour an alliance or does it re-occur. But I shared your concerns that at some stage Germany might want to step in to help its poor little brother. One hope was that, if my post-unification events are a guide, they are busy domestically absorbing all those new provinces. However, it is one reason not to push this war any further than I need to.

See, I knew you'd recover. Not that it was easy, but you got this.

A strong Germany scares Great Britain more, I assume. After all, they did just lose their first European war in a long time. But I don't imagine that it will be good for anyone. Perhaps you should start flirting (couldn't think of a better word) with the French a bit to make allies.

I have been in serious flirtation with France since the mid-1850s. I actually still have a defensive alliance from Piombieres so there is stilll a balance of power in W Europe in that any attempt by either France or Germany to start a war will put the aggressor at a disadvantage. The UK is isolated (UKIP's fantasy version) and as such powerful and vulnerable at the same time. Whatever was going on in the war with Prussia, it's clear GB has no means to project power into Continental Europe.

In general my tariffs are very low (I'm awash in state cash as it is), so most of my diplomatic relations are good, despite my warmoungering ways.

When it comes to the French, flirting is always the way to go (this message brought to you by National Stereotypes[sup]TM[/sup]).

I wonder what would happen if loki did ally with the French and then the Germans decide they really want Elsaß-Lothringen - assuming Austria is still allied with the German Behemoth, that could set off quite the conflagration - Germany/Austria in the one corner, Italy/France in the other. Wonder how much loki could help the French if he has to watch his borders with angry Austria.

If Germany attacked, I'd aid them. After this war, I don't particularly want another war for territorial gain with Austria but a beaten France would leave me exposed to a revanchist Austria (backed by Germany), so at the best I'd help France to a white peace, but could maybe use it to force Austria to break up. A fragmented northern border would suit me quite nicely as I have no scope for territorial gains but it would be a useful protection (& source of trade)

Now that is better, with a suitably beaten Austrian army For sake of clarity, what I was planning in my armchair generalship for this was a double pronged attack to conquer the right Danube shore with Gari and some other high ranked general, while the other armies would methodically wipe the provinces in between ... and if the Austrians marched to the Adriatic you could use your combined forces to clean them out ... that was pretty much what you ended doing, besides that IMHO mistimed rush to Bohemia Anyway, in the end you have the situation quite under control and it should not take long to Austria(-Hungary) to fold. Now that Germany ... ouch; your soldiers in Salzburg should be in their toes looking at the German border

BTW I noticed you have lost Split to rebels since atleast the end of last update. It was a unfortunate event due to the idiotically low NM of Austria(-Hungary) that should be starting to spawn rebels everywhere or are you engineering some way to get it without having to mess with the German duo again? And on the French ... not sure if it worth to cozy with them , since they have quite a feud with Germany and the last thing you want is a mistimed war with them when you have a far bigger fish to fry ...

Split was a bit misleading. if you occupy a province that has a low loyalty to you and your garrison dips below a certain level it shows as 'unowned' on the prestige screen and it seems to use the rebel flag for that. There are a number of small revolts in the next six months and where I can I try to protect them, so one Czech province rebels and there is an uprising in the Balkans.

What I'm going to do is to conflate the final 6 months of the war into a single post. I have masses of screenshots of movements and small battles but with a couple of exceptions its detial rather than easy to follow. However, I am due one more bad defeat.

The odd consequence is I exited the first Austrian war with a superb army - 6 corps were elite. I exit this one with only 3 elite corps left and the loss of a cadre of experienced generals.

I need time to regroup, sort out gaps in my industrial network and in truth I have no realistic expansion goals in Europe (Split, Salonika and Adana are not really worth taking). Now I realise a later, rather infamous Austrian said that too. So my goals are now to bring all of E Africa under my control, as we'll see my expansion west and south has stopped as I am bumping into colonies of powers I have no argument with. And then, its working out how to drag down the GB's prestige so I can go for a win ...

[loki100]

With the battles of late winter and early spring I felt I had repaired the damage from my mistakes in late 1881. In particular, not only was that main Austrian army nicely weakened it was trapped in Bosnia and the Dalmatian provinces were I could deal with it at my leisure. This I carried on doing and as they tried to retreat at Fiume I caught them again:



This led to:



In the meantime in Africa, the top end of Lake Garibaldi is discovered. The great man is reported to be thinking of building a retirement villa on the shores of this lake that he has never actually seen.



In the meantime he has work to do. With the main Austrian army now trapped, I presume that the worst I will face is their recent set of reserves. So, again, Italy pushes north of the Danube and seeks to take control of Bohemia.



In Bosnia, I keep up the pressure



And someone goes and digs a hole in the Alps



By late May, both my campaigns are going well. Bohemia is either mine or under siege, with no sign of serious Austrian intervention and I have their army bottled up in the south. At which stage, just to disturb my calm, a huge new Austrian army appears out of the fog of war and drives me from Pecs.



The battle result was bad, the losses on retreat cost me another 2 veteran corps. This proves to be the long term cost of this war. I started with 6 veteran corps, I end it with 3, and they do take a lot of time to gain that degree of experience.

I’ve shown the state of Francesco’s army (that took the brunt of the attack, again all the Austrians targeted one formation) and all I have left is the support elements. Even worse, Francesco is wounded so that is one of my 3* generals out of action for a while.

So early June



I’ll try to finish off the Austrian army in Bosnia, concentrate my eastern forces at Buda and await reinforcements and finish up the Bohemian campaign.

To take my mind off this, I decide its time to build the Djibuti-Addis Adaba railway. One advantage of occupying most of Austria is that I have masses of manufactured goods so I am using this period for economic development. 3 Manufactured Goods plants are being built, my Italian rail system is being expanded to twin track.

Once this branch is built, I’ll build another line down to Dar es Salaam and then up to my border with Sudan. This will ease troop movements and improve my exploitation of key resources.



Late June sees more victories over what was the main Austrian army, and the steady arrival of reinforcements at Buda and Pressburg in preparation for the campaign to regain eastern Hungary.



Revenge is taken at Pecs for the earlier defeat, in what was to be the last major engagement of the war.



But just as Italy celebrates a famous victory, for once our diplomatic corps fails us.



I’d given China a ‘promise local support’ as I’ve been slowly trying to build up relations with a view to building some structures there (rice farms). This is the negative side, the aggressive Japanese just ignored my promises and I have lost prestige. This is a useful warning not to chuck those guarentees around too much.

In Europe, I push the Austrians back winning a sequence of minor skirmishes. Increasingly valuable peace offers are made, and rejected.



With the war almost won, 3 of Italy’s senior commanders decide now is a good time to retire. Garibaldi goes off to his African villa to write his memoires.



This would have been a major blow. All have gained a lot of experience (G is a 6-7-7) and reduces me to only 2 three-star commanders (so I have problems deploying my army effectively). Fortunately this war is near won and I’m not looking for a new major European war for some time. Garibaldi hopes to live long enough to have a new FIAT delivered.



By early October, Austria finally takes the hint



At massive cost, the issue of Italy’s northern border has finally been settled.



And to celebrate peace, Umberto is allowed a brief return to Europe. To make sure he does no damage, he is quickly sent to Vienna.



By late 1882, Italy’s legitimate territorial ambitions in Europe are fully satisfied. Austria has been humiliated in two wars and they have lost the struggle for mastery in Germany that has run since the 1740s. Prussia, with its reputation boosted by its victory over Britain has absorbed all the north and centre.

Diplomatically, Europe is broken into three loose groups. France and Italy have retained the defensive alliance signed at Piombieres and this gives both confidence that neither a resurgent Prussia nor a revanchist Austria are real threats. The Austro-Prussian alliance has been strained but still exists, at least in theory. Finally Russia is friendly with Italy but has developed closer ties with the emerging Balkan nations (especially Bulgaria and Serbia).

However, Prussia is pressing Austria to accept her losses and is seeking to break the Franco-Italian alliance. In turn that would leave France isolated and allow Prussia to take Alsace-Lorraine.

Britain, humbled in its recent war, but still the primary colonial power, sits on the edge of all these developments. It lacks continental allies and more seriously is no longer sure if the main threat lies with the Franco-Italian block, a resurgent Germany or a Russia steadily pushing into Central Asia.