Jarkko wrote:Regarding the probability of Kentucky seceeding.
If I understand correctly, there is a 25% each turn Kentucky joins the South, as long as South has enough troops along the border. That means the chance for Kentucky joining South is 1-(0.75^7) which is about 86.6%. There is nothing the USA can do about that (except to make the situation even worse), ie basically CSA can press Kentucky to join South.
Isn't the probability a bit too high compared to historical realities?
If the chance was 10% per turn, the probability for Kentucky to join CSA over the 7 turns would be 51.2%, which perhaps would be more in line of the historical situation?
That explains in the two games I have played as the USA with the Kentucky add on the the CSA in both cases seceeded by July. I staged no forces on the borders above what is locked (although units would get produced in border towns, I am sure that didn't help).
It forces the opposite of historical, as the CSA does not need to do anything to have Kentucky seceed, and the Union would seem to be forced to invade as they will most likely not see Kentucky declare for the Union.
Definitely needs to be reexamined IMHO.